The NFL’s Week 18 schedule ends with a big one in Miami as the Buffalo Bills look to claim the AFC East division. We are also looking at a quarterback ready for a playoff push in Green Bay, a running back in Arizona, a quarterback in Eagles-Giants, and a receiver to go under his receiving yardage line in Washington.
Be sure to check out the player props section on OddsTrader, and we included the best sportsbooks to use if you want to use these player props for Week 18.
Picks Summary
- James Conner (ARI) Over 70.5 Rushing Yads (-115)
- Jordan Love (GB) Over 248.5 Passing Yards (-117)
- Tyrod Taylor (NYG) Over 201.5 Passing Yards (-119)
- CeeDee Lamb (DAL) Under 93.5 Receiving Yards (-104)
- Dalton Kincaid (BUF) Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+290)
*All odds from Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Seattle Seahawks vs. Arizona Cardinals
Sunday, January 07, 2024 – 04:25 PM ET at State Farm Stadium
James Conner – Total Rushing Yards
James Conner has been in the NFL since 2017 going back to his Pittsburgh days. Ability has never been the question with him. Availability has always been the issue as he has faced many injuries in his career.
Even this year, he was out for a quarter of the season, including Arizona’s Week 7 loss to the Seahawks, a game he could have been useful in given the Seahawks turned the ball over 3 times.
But Conner is back and so is quarterback Kyler Murray, who also missed that game with Seattle. The duo combined for an incredible upset win in Philadelphia last week. The Cardinals were never stopped after halftime, scoring 4 straight touchdowns on long drives to win the game. Conner even had a 1-handed touchdown grab to highlight his huge day with 128 rushing yards.
The Pick
Thanks to injuries, Conner has never had a 1,000-yard rushing season. He needs 110 yards in this game to pull it off, and it would be cool to see the Cardinals go all out for that.
Of course, it should help to play a Seattle defense that ranks 30th in rushing yards allowed, and the last 6 opponents have cleared 135 rushing yards against this defense. Najee Harris (122 yards), Derrick Henry (88 yards), D’Andre Swift (74 yards), and Christian McCaffrey (145 yards) have all put up numbers on this defense in the last month.
Conner may not get to 1,000 on the season, but we’ll trust him to get to over 70.5 yards in this game.
NFL Pick: James Conner Over 70.5 Rushing Yards (-115) at Caesars Sportsbook
Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers
Sunday, January 07, 2024 – 04:25 PM ET at Lambeau Field
Jordan Love – Total Passing Yards
Technically, it’s not a playoff game, but it basically is for Green Bay. For the 2nd year in a row, the Packers just have to beat an NFC North rival at home in Week 18 to clinch a wild card spot. Aaron Rodgers and company came up short last year to Detroit. Now it is Jordan Love’s turn against Chicago, a team head coach Matt LaFleur is 9-0 against since 2019.
There is definitely pressure on Love here, but he faced the Bears in Week 1 and threw for 245 yards and 3 touchdowns with some big YAC plays. The Packers have only gotten better as a young offense since that point, and Love is on a tear with 265.4 passing yards per game over the last 8 games.
He is probably going to have to throw the ball a fair amount in this game. The Bears have the No. 1 run defense in yards allowed, and they are strong at No. 4 in yards per carry allowed.
Chicago’s pass defense is mediocre at best, and the pass rush is rarely strong. The Bears also tend to allow a lot of passing yards on the road where they will be in this game. The Bears have allowed 5 offenses to have at least 298 net passing yards in a game this season and all 5 games were on the road.
The Pick
Love just passed for 256 yards and 3 touchdowns in Minnesota last week. He passed for 284 yards (Buccaneers) and 267 yards (Chiefs) in his last 2 home games.
The Packers do not need to ask him to do anything more than what he’s been doing for several weeks now. LaFleur usually has good plans for the Bears, and the Chicago defense is one that implores teams to throw more because of how the run defense shuts things down. We’ll trust Love to deliver the necessary yardage for his over in this game.
NFL Pick: Jordan Love Over 248.5 Passing Yards (-117) at Caesars Sportsbook
Philadelphia Eagles vs. New York Giants
Sunday, January 07, 2024 – 04:25 PM ET at MetLife Stadium
Tyrod Taylor – Total Passing Yards
Tyrod Taylor came off the bench for the Giants on Christmas and nearly spoiled the holiday for the Eagles with a stunning comeback. He finished with 133 yards and a touchdown pass in that 33-25 loss.
Taylor gets the start in this one and he is coming off a game against the Rams where he threw for 319 yards and again nearly pulled off a comeback against a playoff-bound team. His kicker just missed the go-ahead field goal in the final minute.
But Taylor has passed for at least 200 yards in 3-of-4 starts this year for Brian Daboll’s Giants. The only time he didn’t was the Jets game that he left very early with an injury.
Taylor has plenty of veteran experience and has a better feel for this offense than a rookie like Tommy DeVito does. He can move the ball in Daboll’s offense, and we are only looking for over 201.5 yards this week.
The Pick
The Eagles can’t stop a nosebleed these days. They allowed the Cardinals to go on 4 straight touchdown marches last week. They gave up a long game-winning touchdown drive to Drew Lock in Seattle. They were hit by a 69-yard touchdown pass from Taylor to Darius Slayton in Week 16.
The Eagles are struggling mightily on defense, and we will trust Taylor to exploit that and finish the year with a solid game as a passer.
NFL Pick: Tyrod Taylor Over 201.5 Passing Yards (-119) at Caesars Sportsbook
Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Commanders
Sunday, January 07, 2024 – 01:00 PM ET at FedExField
CeeDee Lamb – Total Receiving Yards
It might sound sacrilegious to take the under on CeeDee Lamb right now, especially after he had arguably the best game of his career against Detroit with 227 receiving yards and a touchdown.
But we have our reasons.
What about regression to the mean after a receiver has such a monster game like Lamb? You drop 227 yards on a defense, and the next opponent better pay extra attention to that player.
Road Woes
The Cowboys are also not nearly as deadly on the road. Lamb has gone over 93.5 yards in 5-of-8 home games compared to 3-of-8 road games. There’s also a big gulf in his production as that means in half of the games he’s gone well over 110 yards and the other half he’s gone under 80 yards.
One of the teams to hold him down surprisingly was Washington’s bottom-ranked pass defense. Lamb had 53 yards on 4 catches and 9 targets as Dak Prescott spread the ball around to everyone.
In fact, Lamb has faced Washington 7 times in his career and he’s only averaging 50 yards per game. Those numbers have improved with Prescott as his quarterback since 2021 as Dak broke his ankle in 2020 and missed both of those contests when Lamb was a rookie. But even in the last 5 games, Lamb has cracked 70 yards once against Washington. He had 97 yards at home in 2022.
The Pick
The Cowboys need this game for the division title, but they also have to get out of it healthy with the playoffs next week. There is a chance they spread the ball around again to players like Brandin Cooks and tight end Jake Ferguson, and Lamb again has a quiet day for his standards.
If the defense is dominating a struggling Sam Howell, then that could also lead to the Cowboys calling off the dogs and getting guys like Dak and Lamb out of there with next week in mind.
We might feel bad when he goes untouched for a 70-yard touchdown against a clueless Washington defense, but we’ll take our chances that he finishes under this lofty line of 93.5 yards.
NFL Pick: CeeDee Lamb Under 93.5 Receiving Yards (-104) at Caesars Sportsbook
Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins
Sunday, January 07, 2024 – 08:15 PM ET at Hard Rock Stadium
Dalton Kincaid – Anytime Touchdown Scorer
We are simply brainstorming with this pick. Dalton Kincaid has had a very nice rookie season (for a tight end) with 66 catches for 589 yards. But he has only caught 2 touchdowns to this point.
Out of 51 players with at least 60 receptions this year, only 7 of them (13.7%) have caught fewer than 3 touchdowns. The only other tight end on that list is Arizona’s Trey McBride.
In Kincaid’s case, he can blame splitting time with Dawson Knox at tight end, playing with a legitimate No. 1 receiver in Stefon Diggs, and most importantly, Josh Allen has hogged the scoring with 15 rushing touchdowns this year from the quarterback position.
What If?
But what if the Bills watch the tape last week from Miami’s 56-19 loss to Baltimore and sees the 3 touchdown passes that went to tight ends, doubling the season total for Miami’s defense?
Allen threw 3 touchdowns to Diggs in Week 4’s 48-20 win over Miami, but Diggs has just 1 touchdown in the 2nd half of the season and has barely been a factor under new offensive coordinator Joe Brady.
Allen is running for so many touchdowns that he has gone 4 straight games without throwing multiple touchdowns, something he hasn’t done since the start of the 2019 season – back when most of us still thought he wasn’t a legitimate franchise quarterback.
The Pick
The Dolphins watch tape too and can see Allen running all these touchdowns in. They know Diggs is struggling. So, what if the beneficiary of this is Kincaid sneaking out for a touchdown on a play-action pass in the end zone? Something easy the Bills can scheme for him with all the attention going to other people, including James Cook at running back.
Kincaid gets a lot of opportunities in this offense, but we’d like to see him finish his rookie season strong with that 3rd touchdown catch in a game where the Bills are trying to win the AFC East again.
NFL Pick: Dalton Kincaid Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+290) at Caesars Sportsbook
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