The NFL’s Week 4 schedule is back to 3 prime-time games, and the best one should be the first one this time:
- On Monday night, the MetLife Stadium surface will hopefully hold up for a 2nd night in a row when the New York Giants host the Seattle Seahawks.
- On Sunday night, the New York Jets will need all the lucky bounces they can get to slow down the Kansas City Chiefs.
- On Thursday night, the Detroit Lions will try to make it 3 wins in a row against the Green Bay Packers, who are hoping to have some healthy skill players.
We selected our top pick for each prime-time game in Week 4, and you can find the best betting odds at reputable sportsbooks using OddsTrader.
Picks Summary
- Seahawks-Giants Both Score in 1st Quarter (+105) at Bet365
- Chiefs Over 26.5 Points (-115) at Caesars SportsbookÂ
- Luke Musgrave Over 39.5 Receiving Yards (-125) at Caesars Sportsbook
Seahawks Can Make Giants Look Like a Real Offense
It is hard to get excited about watching the Giants in prime time for the 3rd time in 4 weeks, but at least they are facing one of the league’s worst defenses (Seahawks) at home instead of an elite team like the 49ers or Cowboys.
The Giants are even a 1.5-point home favorite with a total of 47 points, so maybe an offensive game is going to break out Monday night. We are looking at a game prop for both teams to score in the 1st quarter.
Seattle Seahawks vs. New York Giants
Monday, October 2, 2023 – 08:15 PM EDT at MetLife Stadium
Seattle’s Defense Will Help
Seattle made the playoffs last year despite a weak defense, and things are looking similar in 2023 despite the 2-1 start. The Seahawks have allowed each quarterback to throw for 300 yards and each opponent to score at least 27 points. The 2012 Redskins were the only other team in NFL history to start a season like that on defense.
Just look at last week with the Carolina game. The Panthers scored 27 points combined in their first 2 games as rookie Bryce Young struggled (4.2 yards per pass attempt). They started Andy Dalton and he led the Panthers to 27 points on the road while making full use of his receivers.
The Giants need to get a similar boost with Daniel Jones attacking this defense after he really struggled to do anything against the 49ers. He didn’t even run the ball like he usually does well.
With coach Brian Daboll well aware of the team’s struggles after last week’s poor showing, look for the Giants to put up at least an early field goal in this game.
Seattle Keeps 2022 Identity
As we get used to how teams are playing this season relative to last, it is nice to see the Seahawks are doing their best to repeat 2022. The defense is still bad, but the offense remains Pete Carroll’s saving grace as Geno Smith is again completing a high percentage of his passes (68.9%) to DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and company. Kenneth Walker just had a strong rushing performance in a win over Carolina.
The Seahawks have scored 37 points in back-to-back games. Now these teams did play a scoreless 1st quarter in Seattle last year before the Seahawks won 27-13, but Carroll’s usually prepared for these Monday night games, and teams from the West going across the country usually fare well in night starts.Â
New York’s defense also has been underwhelming and has allowed points in every 1st quarter this season. In fact, New York has allowed a 1st-quarter score in 11 straight games going back to last year.
The Pick
After starting this season getting outscored 60-0, the Giants did in fact score in the 1st quarter against San Francisco, and we only need a field goal from them in this matchup. The Seahawks and their opponents have both scored in the 1st quarter in all 3 games this season.
The prime-time games can be a slog anymore, but we are trusting the defenses to be bad enough to allow these offenses to both put something on the board early in this one.
NFL Pick: Both Teams to Score in 1st Quarter (+105) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Prime-Time Patrick Mahomes
Patrick Mahomes is set to play his first game in New York in the NFL, and it is looking like a favorable matchup with the Jets struggling to score without Aaron Rodgers at quarterback.
The Chiefs are a 9.5-point road favorite with a total of 42.5 points. We are looking at Kansas City’s scoring total (over/under 26.5 points).
Kansas City Chiefs vs. New York Jets
Sunday, October 1, 2023 – 08:20 PM EDT at MetLife Stadium
Kansas City’s Offense Is Back?
The Chiefs had an unusual start to this season with games ending 21-20 and 17-9 – only the 2nd time in the Mahomes era that the Chiefs scored under 21 points in back-to-back games.
Against Detroit, the Chiefs were missing Travis Kelce (knee), and Kadarius Toney and Skyy Moore were seemingly missing their hands as they could not catch anything. A dropped pass by Toney turned into a pick-6, and that is basically the difference in the Chiefs sitting at 2-1 instead of 3-0 right now.
But even against the Jaguars when Kelce returned, the Chiefs turned the ball over 3 times as fumbling was an issue, and they only scored 17 points in that game.
But with Kelce making his home debut and the Chiefs hosting the Bears last week, everything clicked, and it looked like old times. The Chiefs scored on 7 straight drives (5 touchdowns, 2 field goals) to build a 41-0 lead before resting Mahomes and Kelce late in the 3rd quarter.
Mahomes had a player roll into his ankle late in the first half, but it appears everything is fine on that front.
New York’s Defense Is Not Elite
Part of the excitement over the Jets this year was pairing Aaron Rodgers with what would hopefully remain an elite defense after it was for Robert Saleh in 2022. However, Rodgers tore his Achilles after 4 snaps, and the defense was fortunate that Josh Allen was in a giving mood as his 4 turnovers were mostly horrible decisions that he did not need to force.
That win gave the illusion that all was well with the Jets being able to rely on this defense, but in the last 2 games, the Jets have failed to force a single takeaway. They were also thoroughly dissected by Dak Prescott and the Cowboys in Week 2. The Patriots only scored 15 points (13 on offense) in Week 3, but that’s an improvement over the last meeting when the teams were deadlocked 3-3 going into the final minute before a punt return won the game for New England.
The numbers just do not look like anything special for this defense so far. Quarterbacks complete 69.4% of their passes, the Jets are 22nd on 3rd down, and the pass rush has produced a below-average pressure rate.
For as great as corner Sauce Gardner is, his talents are lost a bit in this matchup when the Chiefs can scheme plays to Kelce and the running backs (Jerick McKinnon especially). Mahomes has no problem spreading the ball around to anyone these days. The wide receivers are not separating themselves into traditional roles, so he’ll throw to anyone who gets open.
Throw in a New York offense that can’t run the ball, and a Kansas City defense that is allowing 11 points per game, and you have a game where the Chiefs should dominate time of possession and get plenty of scoring chances.
The Pick
The Chiefs are 17-3 in their last 20 prime-time games. They usually show up for these games, and they seem to do even better offensively when playing on the road. In prime-time games on the road, Mahomes has led the Chiefs to over 26.5 points in 12-of-14 games (85.7%). Trust him to do it again in this one and take Kansas City’s over.
NFL Pick: Chiefs Over 26.5 Points (-115) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
The Other Rookie Tight End in Lions-Packers
The Lions are enjoying 2nd-round rookie tight end Sam LaPorta, who caught his first touchdown last week and has emerged as the No. 2 target on the team behind only Amon-Ra St. Brown. But the Packers also took a tight end 8 picks after LaPorta in Luke Musgrave, who has been the most effective target in the passing game for Jordan Love so far.
We are looking at the receiving yards prop for Musgrave (over/under 39.5 yards).
Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers
Thursday, September 28, 2023 – 08:15 PM EDT at Lambeau Field
Is Christian Watson Out?
Trying to make sense of the Green Bay passing game right now is figuring out which players are healthy enough to play. No. 1 wide receiver Christian Watson has yet to make his season debut because of a hamstring injury, but he is hopeful to play this Thursday night.
Running back Aaron Jones is also questionable, and he had the offense’s big plays in the passing game in Week 1 against the Bears. With Jones and Watson out the last 2 games, the Packers have had to make things work with other players, including the rookie tight end Musgrave.
He had 50 yards in Week 1, 25 yards in Atlanta, and 49 yards on 8 targets against a tough New Orleans defense last week. The Packers barely passed for any yardage in Atlanta, but in the other games where Love went over 200 yards, Musgrave easily went over 39.5 yards.
The Packers have only thrown 2 of their 96 passes this season to a tight end not named Musgrave, so he is dominating the targets at his position in this offense.
Detroit vs. Tight Ends
It is early in the season, but the Lions have allowed the most catches (25) and receiving yards (263) to tight ends. They are the only defense to allow over 200 yards to tight ends, and this is even after getting a huge break in Week 1 when Travis Kelce was injured in a Tuesday practice and was unable to play in that game.
But the Lions have already allowed 56 yards to Noah Fant (Seahawks) and 41 yards to Kyle Pitts (Falcons).
The Pick
Expect a quality offensive game where the Packers are going to have to put the ball in the air to keep up with Detroit. Musgrave should be a good bet to go over 40 yards again, and he may even try matching LaPorta in the touchdown department as he seeks his first.
NFL Pick: Luke Musgrave Over 39.5 Receiving Yards (-125) at Caesars Sportsbook
