Revenge week is looking sweet in the NFL for this Week 5 slate. Rookie wideout Zay Flowers gets introduced to the Ravens-Steelers rivalry in Pittsburgh. Nathaniel Hackett goes back to Denver to try to stick it to Sean Payton and the Broncos, who are allowing 37.5 points per game this year. Finally, Monday night should see Davante Adams face his former team, Green Bay, for the first time.
After using the player props section on OddsTrader, we have found our favorite props for Week 5, which you can find at our top-rated sportsbooks.
Picks Summary
- Zay Flowers Over 45.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
- Bryce Young Under 213.5 Passing Yards (-129)
- Jaylen Waddle Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+130)
- Zach Wilson Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+172)
- Davante Adams Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+114)
*All odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Sunday, October 8, 2023 – 01:00 PM EDT at Acrisure Stadium
Zay Flowers (Baltimore Ravens)
Zay Flowers’ ability to stay healthy has given him an edge over the other Baltimore receivers, but the rookie has also been impressive in his first month in the league. Flowers has caught 24-of-29 targets for 244 yards as he’s quickly become one of the most reliable receivers Lamar Jackson has ever played with.
Flowers has gone over 45.5 receiving yards in all 4 games this season. The Ravens have not fed him nearly as many targets on the road as they have in home games (10 targets each time), but last week in Cleveland, Flowers was on the receiving end of a 40-yard bomb from Jackson for one of the biggest plays of the game as they grow their chemistry together.
It is possible the Ravens will get Odell Beckham Jr. and Rashod Bateman back at wide receiver for this game, but Flowers has 29 targets, or 11 more than any other Baltimore player and 17 more than the next closest wide receiver. They are going to continue getting production out of their rookie.
The Pick
Beyond Jackson’s trust in Flowers, the reason to like this over is that the Pittsburgh defense looks lost in the secondary. Corners Patrick Peterson and Levi Wallace are both allowing over 8.0 yards per target. Every week a wide receiver has demolished Pittsburgh, including Brandon Aiyuk (49ers), Amari Cooper (Browns), Davante Adams (Raiders), and Nico Collins (Texans). Flowers may not sniff 100 yards in this defensive battle, but over 45.5 should be well within his capabilities.
NFL Pick: Zay Flowers Over 45.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Caesars Sportsbook
Carolina Panthers vs. Detroit Lions
Sunday, October 8, 2023 – 01:00 PM EDT at Ford Field
Bryce Young (Carolina Panthers)
One month of a player’s rookie season is not enough time to make any sweeping judgments about their future, but things have not been great for Bryce Young in Carolina so far. He has not impressed as much as Anthony Richardson (Colts) and C.J. Stroud (Texans) have, and it does not help perception when Carolina (0-4) is the only winless team in the NFL right now.
In his first 2 starts, Young averaged 4.2 yards per pass attempt, the 3rd-lowest average since 1950 in a player’s first 2 games. He then missed the Week 3 game in Seattle with an ankle injury and veteran Andy Dalton moved the offense much better than Young did.
Young returned in Week 4 against Minnesota, and despite holding the ball for over 38 minutes, the Panthers never found the end zone and finished with 6 points on offense. It is the only time in modern NFL history where a team had over 38 minutes of possession and did not score an offensive touchdown.
Again, a 1-month sample is usually never enough to make an accurate career prediction, but we are seeing extremely poor results with Young trying to run this offense.
Worse, going to Detroit is going to be a battle when the Lions looked so good at getting after Jordan Love and the Packers in Week 3. They also had 10 days to rest and prepare for this one.
The Pick
Young is averaging 167.7 passing yards per game and has been under 213.5 yards in every game so far. The Lions have made life hard on Desmond Ridder (201 yards) and Jordan Love (246 yards) in the last 2 games, and that should continue with Young here.
Also, in the improbable chance this looks like a repeat of Lions-Panthers from 2022, that still probably favors the under, as the Panthers ran for 320 yards against Detroit last December in an upset win. Chances are the Lions will play much better this time, and that will include making this rookie passer look bad.
NFL Pick: Bryce Young Under 213.5 Passing Yards (-129) at Caesars Sportsbook
New York Giants vs. Miami Dolphins
Sunday, October 8, 2023 – 01:00 PM EDT at Hard Rock Stadium
Jaylen Waddle (Miami Dolphins)
While Miami made some headway against Buffalo’s elite defense last week, the fact is the Dolphins were held scoreless on 8 of their last 9 drives. It was rather odd seeing Braxton Berrios lead the team in targets and catches (6 each), and he caught the only touchdown pass from Tua Tagovailoa.
Jaylen Waddle had a quiet game with 4 catches for 46 yards, but at least we can probably blame some combo of great defense and a slow return from a concussion for this lack of production.
Waddle is still one of the best No. 2 wideouts in the game, but he missed Week 3 with a concussion, and it is fair to fade players coming back from that for a week. But Waddle should be ready to go this Sunday, and the Dolphins should look a lot better against a poor Giants defense at home, where they scored 70 points in their last outing.
But Waddle does not have a touchdown yet this season. Going back to last year and including the playoff loss in Buffalo, Waddle has not scored a touchdown in 6 straight games, which is the longest streak of his career.
The Pick
Simply put, we are picking Waddle to end the longest touchdown drought of his career. Waddle averages about 1 touchdown every 3 games played, but we are not on board with him going a 7th-consecutive game without scoring a touchdown, and Tyreek Hill and De’Von Achane can’t score all the touchdowns for Miami the rest of the way. This is Waddle’s week.
NFL Pick: Jaylen Waddle Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+130) at Caesars Sportsbook
New York Jets vs. Denver Broncos
Sunday, October 8, 2023 – 04:25 PM EDT at Empower Field at Mile High
Zach Wilson (New York Jets)
Can playing a historically bad defense help set a young quarterback on the right path? Well, Justin Fields just threw 8 touchdown passes against the Broncos and Commanders this week, so maybe it is possible.
Zach Wilson is the next quarterback to get the Denver bump, the defense that is dead last in points, yards, and passing touchdowns allowed through Week 4. The Broncos also have the worst pressure rate in the league as they just cannot get to quarterbacks, and they also are terrible at stopping the run. No wonder this team gave up 70 points to the Dolphins in Week 3.
Wilson also is coming off a solid game against the Chiefs, who have played very good defense this year. Wilson’s 105.2 passer rating was the highest of his career. He threw 2 touchdowns in a game for just the 6th time in his career (26 games), and that is something he has never done in back-to-back games before.
But this Denver defense is so bad that it presents a great opportunity for Wilson, who has some playmakers around him in Garrett Wilson, Breece Hall, Allen Lazard, and Tyler Conklin.
If Fields can complete his first 16 passes against this Denver defense, why not see Wilson have his share of success too?
The Pick
Not only does Wilson get a horrible defense to face, but there is the added backstory about Sean Payton calling out Nathaniel Hackett’s coaching job in Denver last year as one of the worst ever. Hackett took that personally, and he is now the offensive coordinator of the Jets. Expect him to save some of his best calls for this one, and Wilson should be the beneficiary of that as he attempts to make it multiple touchdown throws in back-to-back games.
Given the value of these betting odds for it, this is too good to pass up. Not when the Denver defense is on pace to be the worst in the 21st century.
NFL Pick: Zach Wilson Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+172) at Caesars Sportsbook
Green Bay Packers vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Monday, October 9, 2023 – 08:15 PM EDT at Allegiant Stadium
Davante Adams (Las Vegas Raiders)
Davante Adams and the Packers are in Vegas on Monday night, but it is still weird to think about how they will be opponents instead of teammates. Adams has done his part since the 2022 trade sent him to the Raiders, but he knows the Raiders are not a good team and has struggled this year despite his best efforts.
Adams was quoted as saying he doesn’t have time to wait around for this team to figure things out. Adams had 172 yards and 2 touchdowns against Pittsburgh in the team’s only prime-time game so far this year, but that was not enough for a win. He had a spectacular catch to bail out rookie quarterback Aidan O’Connell against the Chargers last week, but the very next play was an interception in another loss.
The losing is getting to Adams, but he is still one of the best in the game. No matter if the Raiders start O’Connell again or get Jimmy Garoppolo back from his concussion (more likely), Adams is going to be the best target on the field in this game and he should be dominant.
Adams has scored 17 touchdowns in 21 games with the Raiders. But as the last 1.25 seasons have proven, the Packers and Adams were better together than they are apart. But for one night, Adams can remind the Packers directly of what they are missing.
The Pick
It is Davante Adams in prime time against his former team. It would be a shock if he didn’t score a touchdown in this one. Perhaps taking his over in yardage is the right call as a hedge, but the sportsbooks are still quiet on that number as of Friday morning. But Adams should play and play well in this game.
NFL Pick: Davante Adams Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+114) at Caesars Sportsbook
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
