The NFL’s Week 5 schedule has a great NFC game on Sunday night between the 49ers and Cowboys. However, there is plenty of intrigue on the early Sunday slate, including games with Titans-Colts, Ravens-Steelers, and Eagles-Rams.
After looking over the OddsTrader computer picks, we have selected 3 of our favorite bets that you can find at top-rated sportsbooks for Week 5.
Picks Summary
- Titans-Colts Under 42.5 Points (-109) at Unibet
- Ravens-Steelers Under 38.5 Points (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Eagles -4 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Titans Meet Colts in Crowded AFC South Race
Everyone is 2-2 in the AFC South, and this is Tennessee’s first division game of the season. The Titans are hoping to extend their 5-game winning streak against the Colts, who came back from a 23-0 deficit against the Rams last week before losing in overtime.
The Titans are a 1.5-point road underdog with a total of 42.5 points. We have the under in mind.
Tennessee Titans vs. Indianapolis Colts
Sunday, October 08, 2023 – 01:00 PM EDT at Lucas Oil Stadium
Harsh Home-Road Splits for Titans
So far, the Titans are 2-0 at home and scored 27 points in both games, but they are 0-2 on the road with a combined 18 points in those games against the Browns and Saints. Tough defenses for sure, but the Titans really struggled to throw or get the running game going in either game.
Ryan Tannehill only has 2 touchdown passes in 4 games and his 28.2 QBR ranks next to last in 2023. The Colts are 21st in points allowed and 28th in yards allowed on defense, so it has not been a strong unit, allowing at least 19 points in every game.
But 3-of-4 games between these teams since 2021 finished with under 42 points. Tannehill did not even pass for 140 yards in either matchup last season. The Colts have a new coaching staff and some new starters from last year, but this should still be played as a tight, run-minded divisional game instead of an aerial shootout.
Anthony Richardson’s Accuracy
Rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson is completing 56.9% of his passes this season, which ranks next to last in the league. Consistent accuracy was not something he was expected to excel at this season, which is why the scouting report was about his raw talent and need to gain experience at the position.
But Richardson has been successful at times at moving the offense, which is not loaded, and he did his part to help lead a 23-point comeback last week and force overtime before the team lost the game.
However, the Titans are a tough team to face as they shut down the run and force teams to throw. Richardson is not really set up well in this offense to carry a team with his arm yet, so this could be another game where the Colts fail to score many points, especially in the first 3 quarters. The Titans are not as likely to blow a 23-point lead as the Rams did too.
The Pick
The Titans will have a real shot at winning this one with their experience and past success against the Colts. Richardson and the new coaching staff provide some wrinkles to the matchup, but he is not the kind of quarterback who should have a ton of scoring success in this game.
Turnovers setting up short fields or leading directly to return touchdowns are always a concern in games like this for hitting the over, but we think the teams will play it cleanly enough to keep the score legitimately low and hit the Under at the NFL odds board.
Score Prediction: Titans 22 – Colts 20
NFL Pick: Under 42.5 (-109) at Unibet
Ravens and Steelers Resume Rivalry
Baltimore has a lot of injuries, but quarterback Lamar Jackson has not been one of them yet this year (knock on wood). Meanwhile, the other AFC North quarterbacks have all been injured, and Kenny Pickett (knee) may be out for this one, a game the Steelers could really use a big performance in after getting crushed 30-6 in Houston.
The Ravens are a 4.5-point road favorite with a total of 38.5 points. We like that Under as this is your typical Steelers-Ravens game, which means low scoring and a lot of hitting.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Sunday, October 08, 2023 – 01:00 PM EDT at Acrisure Stadium
Pittsburgh’s Broken Offense
Whether the Steelers start Pickett or Mitch Trubisky, the pick is the same here. The offense is completely broken under coordinator Matt Canada, who lacks any new ideas of how to get his weapons involved and for the team to do well on first down or early in games. He also lost tight end Pat Freiermuth for a few weeks to injury.
Pittsburgh has failed to crack 260 yards of offense in 3-of-4 games this season. No offense has fewer first downs this season than Pittsburgh. The offensive line has been terrible, and the weapons are not even healthy with wide receiver Diontae Johnson still out to go along with the injuries to Pickett and Freiermuth.
The Steelers scored 14 and 16 points against Baltimore in last year’s meeting. They would be fortunate to hit that range again in this one.
Lamar’s History With Pittsburgh
It seems like every Steelers-Ravens game these days involves one or both starting quarterbacks being unavailable due to injury. Tyler Huntley has started the last 3 games in this rivalry for Baltimore, but this Sunday it will be Lamar Jackson under center.
Jackson is having a very good season with the highest passing success rate (53.4%) of his career so far despite a long list of injuries around him. He has 8 total touchdowns and half of those came last week against Cleveland’s top-ranked defense.
But Jackson does have a spotty history against the Steelers – albeit from a sample of 3 starts. However, he is 1-2 in those games with 6 interceptions and 6 fumbles (2 lost). He has led the Ravens to at least 19 points in each game, though the higher scoring came with the Steelers having Ben Roethlisberger at quarterback. That is obviously no longer the case here.
The Pick
It feels like this game has only 2 outcomes and both favor the Under. The Steelers have zero shot of winning a shootout with Baltimore, so the hope is the defense dominates and keeps the score low for a close win. The other outcome is another blowout similar to last week’s results for these teams when Baltimore won 28-3 in Cleveland and Pittsburgh lost 30-6 in Houston.
Both results would satisfy the Under 38.5 in this matchup. Trust the Pittsburgh offense to continue stinking and allow this game to go Under.
Score Prediction: Ravens 20 – Steelers 15
NFL Pick: Under 38.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Eagles Move to 5-0?
Philadelphia probably did not expect such a tough battle with Washington, but it took overtime and 34 points to improve to 4-0. Likewise, the Rams probably thought they would cruise to victory after leading 23-0 in Indianapolis, but they also had to prevail in overtime to get back to .500.
The Eagles are a 4-point road favorite with a total of 50 points. We are thinking the Eagles will win more comfortably this time.
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Los Angeles Rams
Sunday, October 08, 2023 – 04:05 PM EDT at SoFi Stadium
Philadelphia’s Offense Lights Up in Week 4
On a day when Philadelphia’s defense was at its worst this year, the offense delivered its best performance against Washington, especially with Jalen Hurts and the passing game. While Hurts is getting known for the “Tush Push” quarterback sneak and his short touchdown runs, he was the MVP runner-up last year for his passing contributions too.
Things did not look as good in the first 3 games this season, but in Week 4, Hurts passed for 319 yards and found his first 2 touchdowns of the season to No. 1 target A.J. Brown, who has been dominant over the last 2 games.
The Eagles have also found an encouraging new lead running back in D’Andre Swift. The team ranks 2nd in rushing yards and 3rd in rushing yards per carry (4.7) this season.
The Rams are above average on defense, which is a miracle given the lineup after Aaron Donald as the team turned over most of its roster from last year. But one problem area is the Rams only have forced 2 turnovers, which is usually key to beating the Eagles.
Even though the Rams made things difficult on the 49ers, San Francisco still scored 30 points in that game in Los Angeles and won by 7 points. The Eagles are the closest thing to the 49ers that the Rams have played yet. Hurts is also arguably the best quarterback they have seen as the Rams have also played Geno Smith, an injured Joe Burrow, and rookie Anthony Richardson.
Stafford Hurt?
A big part of the Rams trying to turn things around right now is a healthy Matthew Stafford finding new receiving sensation Puka Nacua, who is rewriting the record books with 39 catches for 501 yards in his first 4 games. He caught his first touchdown in overtime to beat the Colts last week and has done a fantastic job replacing Cooper Kupp as the No. 1 target in this offense.
But things would not work well without a healthy Stafford. He suffered a hip contusion in Week 4, and while head coach Sean McVay insists he should be fine this week, that is a situation to monitor.
Last year, the Rams could not protect Stafford against the better defensive fronts, and he was not healthy and able to overcome it. His protection has been better this year, but we have seen some teams tee off on him already. The Eagles have a great set of pass rushers even if the results are not there yet in their defensive statistics.
But the Rams have not scored more than 23 points in regulation in any of the last 3 games. The Eagles are unlikely to let this offense score as easily as Washington, a division rival with an experienced coaching staff that knows them well did last week.
The Pick
We’ve seen the 49ers and Bengals get double-digit pressures on Stafford, who was sacked 6 times by the Bengals in Week 3. The Eagles should get to him often too, and the offense is another elite unit that can run and pass and give this talent-lacking defense issues.
We like the predicted score of 28-22 to take the Eagles to cover the 4-point spread and get to 5-0 for the 2nd season in a row under head coach Nick Sirianni.
Score Prediction: Eagles 28 – Rams 22
NFL Pick: Eagles -4 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
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