There are a lot of exciting matchups on the NCAAF slate on Saturday. Here are three bets from the computers at OddsTrader which I agree with.
Picks Summary
- Louisville -8 (-110)Â
- Arizona +9.5 (-110)
- Miami +3.5 (-110)
*All odds are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Louisville Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Panthers
Saturday, October 14, 2023 – 06:30 PM EDT at Acrisure Stadium
Our AI Model believes the Louisville Cardinals will win a ten-point game against the Pittsburgh Panthers. Louisville is undefeated and already bowl-eligible. As an 8-point favorite, there’s value in the Cardinals.
Louisville’s Path to ACC Glory
Louisville has a chance to win the ACC this season. They’ve got a very favorable schedule coming up. The Cardinals just knocked off Notre Dame, 33-20. It wasn’t even as close as it looked. The defense was dominant in all phases to shut down Notre Dame.
Jack Plummer backs them at quarterback. The veteran has thrown 12 touchdowns and six interceptions this season. However, the run game is even more lethal with Jawhar Jordan. He’s added 653 yards with eight touchdowns in six games.
The Cardinals have a ton of speed. That’s not good for a Pittsburgh defense that continues to miss tackles week after week. The secondary and pass rush for the Panthers are definitely beatable for Louisville.
On the other hand, Pittsburgh had to move its starting quarterback Phil Jurkovec to tight end. That’s how bad things have gotten for the Panthers.
The Pick
I’ll trust Louisville to win by at least two scores. I’m with the AI Model here.
NCAAF Pick: Louisville -8 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Arizona Wildcats vs. Washington State Cougars
Saturday, October 14, 2023 – 07:00 PM EDT at Gesa Field
Our AI Model believes Arizona will only lose to Washington State 33-30. With the Wildcats sitting at +9.5, there’s reason to take Arizona in this spot on the road.
Underestimating Arizona
Maybe we’re all underrating Arizona a little bit. The Wildcats have lost two straight games, but they’ve lost by a touchdown to Washington and by two points in three overtimes to USC. Arizona hasn’t closed out games, but a game against Washington State is winnable.
Washington State lost to UCLA on the road most recently, 25-17. The offense didn’t get moving. You can thank the offensive line for that. Washington State’s got one of the worst pass protections in the Pac-12 this season. Still, the offense has averaged 470.2 yards per game, including 365.6 yards in the air. Cameron Ward has thrown 14 touchdowns and only two interceptions. However, his Heisman campaign took a hit after a weak performance against UCLA last weekend.
On the other hand, Arizona’s offense has been terrific under Noah Fifita. The backup quarterback threw for 303 yards against USC with five touchdowns and one interception. He’s an absolute gamer, playing behind one of the Pac-12’s best offensive lines in pass protection.
Washington State has played well in the secondary. The Cougars also have a solid pass rush, but the run defense has allowed 141.6 yards per game on the ground.
The Pick
Arizona can open up the passing game with some success on the ground. Back Arizona at the college football odds to cover the 9.5.
NCAAF Pick: Arizona +9.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Miami Hurricanes vs. North Carolina Tar Heels
Saturday, October 14, 2023 – 07:30 PM EDT at Kenan Stadium
The AI Model suggests Miami will only lose to North Carolina by one point, 27-26. With Miami at +3.5, the value is on Miami, despite its weird blunder last weekend against Georgia Tech.
Miami’s Bounce Back
The Miami Hurricanes did the unthinkable last weekend. The Hurricanes just had to kneel for their victory against Georgia Tech. Instead, Miami ran the ball, fumbled it, and allowed Georgia Tech to score a touchdown with two seconds left on the clock.
Miami’s undefeated season was finished in a blink of an eye. The public will hate on Miami after that loss, especially after North Carolina beat the brakes off of Syracuse last weekend. However, Miami’s got the edge.
The Hurricanes have averaged more yards per game than North Carolina this season. They’ve thrown for nearly 295 yards and have added 211 yards on the ground this season behind Tyler Van Dyke.
Van Dyke probably had his worst game last weekend against Georgia Tech, but he’s still thrown for 1330 yards with 12 touchdowns and four interceptions this year. He’s been good.
The run game has been just as good with Henry Parrish Jr. He’s rushed for 379 yards and has averaged 6.4 yards a carry.
Can the Hurricanes Capitalize on Tar Heels’ Weaknesses?
Meanwhile, the Miami defense has allowed just 268.4 yards per game. Teams have earned only 58.2 yards on the ground and 210.2 yards in the air. Miami’s run defense is electric, and the secondary is very solid. The pass rush is also effective.
The Hurricanes will face a North Carolina offense that didn’t find its groove until last weekend against Syracuse. Drake Maye scored three touchdowns in the air, pushing his total to eight passing touchdowns on the season. Through the first four games, he only had five passing touchdowns. That’s not ideal.
Furthermore, North Carolina has struggled to block in the run game. So, despite adding 174.2 yards per game on the ground, the Tar Heels aren’t a major threat in the run game if the offensive line doesn’t perform.
On defense, the Tar Heels are great in coverage, but compared to Miami, the defense isn’t nearly as good against the run or as a pass rush. They’ve also missed more tackles.
The Pick
Miami’s got North Carolina beat in most positions. I’ll take Miami at one of the online sportsbooks and agree with the AI Model.
NCAAF Pick: Miami +3.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
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