The NFL’s Week 8 schedule has the battle of New York where touchdowns will be at a premium between the Jets and Giants. We are also looking at the Rams headed to Dallas for an early afternoon game with the Cowboys, who had a bye week. We close the afternoon with the Ravens making a rare trip to Arizona to try to build on last week’s huge win over Detroit.
After checking out the OddsTrader’s computer picks, we have narrowed down 3 of our favorite bets that you can find at the top-rated sportsbooks for Week 8.
Picks Summary
- Jets-Giants Under 36.5 Points (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
- Rams-Cowboys Under 45.5 Points (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Ravens -8.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Battle or Pillow Fight in New York?
Another season means more struggling offense in New York between the Jets and Giants. A couple of explosive plays from Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall are the only things separating the Jets from being closer to the bottom with the Giants, but maybe Tyrod Taylor is a slight upgrade over Daniel Jones (neck) for Brian Daboll’s offense.
The Giants are a 3-point underdog, but we are focusing on the total of 36.5 points with the under in mind.
New York Jets vs. New York Giants
Sunday, October 29, 2023 – 01:00 PM EDT at MetLife Stadium
The Giants Should Enjoy Facing Zach Wilson
The Giants score a league-low 12.1 points per game, but maybe we should point out the defense the last 2 weeks. It allowed just 21 points to the Bills (14) and Commanders (7). The Giants went into Week 7 with a pathetic 5 sacks on defense, but they were able to scoop up 6 sacks of Sam Howell, everyone’s favorite human pinata at quarterback this season.
While Zach Wilson is not as bad at taking sacks as Howell, he is still taking a sack on 9.5% of passes, a high rate. He also has not led the Jets to more than 22 points in 5-of-6 games this season. Even the 31-21 win in Denver involved a safety and fumble return touchdown.
The Jets had a bye week, but it is hard to trust an offense that ranks 32nd on 3rd down and 32nd in the red zone at scoring touchdowns. You would think an offense with Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson would produce better results than this, but the quarterback position continues to hold this unit back.
Wilson is 29th in QBR (36.9), which is right behind Daniel Jones (39.0) of the Giants.
Daniel Jones or Tyrod Taylor? Doesn’t Matter to the Jets
The Jets went into their bye week riding high after intercepting Jalen Hurts 3 times to hand the Eagles their first loss of 2023. It was a good win, but it was still largely the defense’s win.
This defense will hopefully welcome Sauce Gardner back after he missed the Week 6 game with a concussion. Whether the Giants stick with Tyrod Taylor or go back to Daniel Jones after his neck injury, it is still a poor offensive line that allows too many sacks, and the quarterback play is not good enough to elevate the other skill players here.
Even when Taylor had a good start to the Washington game against a bad defense, the Giants still finished with 14 points in a game that had more possessions (27) than points (21) between the teams.
The Pick
This feels like an early 1990s total at 36.5, but given the teams involved, can you blame the sportsbooks? Surprisingly, only 2-of-6 games have gone under 36.5 points for the Jets, but that’s because they were playing quarterbacks like Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs), Dak Prescott (Cowboys), and Josh Allen (Bills). The Giants are not like that with their 12.1 points per game.
Three of the last 4 games for the Giants have not surpassed 27 points. Already having a score like 16-13 in mind, the computer score returning 17-15 was enough to sell me that the under is the right pick between these teams.
Score Prediction: Giants 17 – Jets 15
NFL Pick: Under 36.5 (-110) at Bet365
Cowboys to Sack Stafford?
The Rams and Cowboys may both have offensive-minded coaches, but their games have not been that high-scoring this year, and their best players are still defenders (Micah Parsons and Aaron Donald). In fact, Dallas has yet to play a game this season where both teams scored more than 17 points.
The Cowboys are a 6.5-point home favorite with a total of 45.5 points. We are focusing on the total going under.
Los Angeles Rams vs. Dallas Cowboys
Sunday, October 29, 2023 – 01:00 PM EDT at AT&T Stadium
Last Year’s Matchup: Cowboys 22, Rams 10
These teams met last season in a game the Cowboys won 22-10. Both offenses basically had one big play for a touchdown. Cooper Kupp produced a 75-yard touchdown for the Rams, but Matthew Stafford struggled against that defensive front, taking 5 sacks, including a strip-sack returned for a touchdown on the 3rd snap from scrimmage.
Cooper Rush started at quarterback for an injured Dak Prescott, so that can help explain why the Dallas offense only produced 3 field goals and a 57-yard touchdown run by Tony Pollard.
But the Cowboys would love a big play like that from Pollard this year as Dallas has not been very explosive on the ground or through the air with Mike McCarthy calling the plays.
The Cowboys only rank 20th in yards per play (5.0) this season. The only game where the Dallas offense broke 400 yards was the Arizona loss where the offense kept stalling out in scoring territory. The Cowboys are 26th in red zone touchdown rate.
Rams Figuring Things Out?
The Rams are only 16th in scoring at 22.1 points per game as they are trying to figure out how to make use of their new receiver duo. Puka Nacua was the talk of all rookies early this year when he was rewriting the record books with Cupp out. Since Kupp returned, Puka was quiet until he exploded on the Steelers with 154 yards, looking like Kupp has in this offense.
But in the same game, Kupp was held to 29 yards and had a couple of drops. It was the least effective game he’s had without being injured since midway through the 2020 season. The Rams only scored 17 points against a weak Pittsburgh pass defense.
The Cowboys may have lost corner Trevon Diggs to a torn ACL, but they can cover better than the Steelers, and they still have great players up front like DeMarcus Lawrence and Parsons.
The Pick
Since Stafford joined the Rams in 2021, the over is only 3-8 (27.3%) in games where the Rams were a road underdog. Since 2022, after the glow of the Super Bowl-winning season, the over is 4-11 (26.7%) in all games where the Rams were an underdog.
Given the talent on these offenses, it feels like both should produce better results than they have so far this season. This has the potential to be an exciting game that is within 1 score in the 4th quarter, but the best play is on the under hitting.
Score Prediction: Cowboys 24 – Rams 20
NFL Pick: Under 45.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Ravens Finally Stack Easy Wins?
Every few weeks, Baltimore has a game that makes us want to believe this team is a legitimate Super Bowl contender. The 38-6 thrashing of the Lions was one of those games, but the problem with the Ravens is that a disappointment is usually right around the corner. Losing in Arizona, losers of 4 straight, as a heavy favorite would certainly qualify.
The Ravens are an 8.5-point road favorite with a total of 43.5 points.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Arizona Cardinals
Sunday, October 29, 2023 – 04:25 PM EDT at State Farm Stadium
Rarely Comes Easy for Ravens
Since 2021, the Ravens have won back-to-back games by more than 8 points just once. It happened in Weeks 9-11 of the 2022 season when they beat the Saints 27-13, enjoyed a bye week, then beat the Panthers 13-3.
But with the way the Ravens have sustained injuries and blown leads in close games since 2021, it is not surprising to see their lack of consistent runs of strong play. Things may be changing this year if Lamar Jackson can stay healthy, and especially if he can dominate like he did last week against the Lions.
It was in the running for the best game of Jackson’s career. He passed for 357 yards, 3 touchdowns, and he ran for 36 yards and another touchdown. It revitalized his MVP case for the season as Jackson made everything look so easy against the only team that has a win over Kansas City in 2023 to this point.
Baltimore also looked so strong on defense, holding the Lions to just 6 points on 10 drives despite the starters playing the whole game.
Arizona’s Nearing the End of the Joshua Dobbs Experiment
It was fun while it lasted. The Cardinals were widely projected to be the worst team in the league this year as Kyler Murray continued to recover from a torn ACL. But after blowing 4th-quarter leads against Washington and the Giants and pulling off the biggest upset of the year against Dallas, the Cardinals were exceeding expectations. Joshua Dobbs was doing a respectable job at quarterback by not turning the ball over.
Then running back James Conner was injured against the Bengals, Dobbs started turning the ball over frequently, and just like that, we have watched Arizona lose 4 games in a row by double digits, turning into the poor team we expected to see all along.
The schedule has no doubt toughened up, and Baltimore will only add to that. The Cardinals were able to win the turnover battle 3-0 against Seattle in Week 7, but they only managed 10 points and 249 yards of offense.
The strength of the Cardinals may be the running game with the way Dobbs contributes to that, but the Ravens have been sound against the run, holding 5-of-7 teams under 95 yards.
Meanwhile, the Cardinals have been poor against the run and even worse against the pass as quarterbacks have averaged 8.1 yards per pass against Arizona this season. This could be another big dual-threat game from Jackson.
The Pick
This would be an easier call if the game was played in Baltimore, but the Ravens have already traveled for 4 road games this season. Their style of play travels, Jackson looks very good, and he is developing great chemistry with rookie Zay Flowers. The Cardinals are not well built on either side of the ball to deal with the Ravens. We’ll count on a 5th-straight loss by double digits for Arizona.
Score Prediction: Ravens 24 – Cardinals 13
NFL Pick: Ravens -8.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
