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Week 9 NFL Best Player Props: Joe Mixon Steps Up Against the Bills

The NFL’s Week 9 schedule is filled with so many big games that you wonder why they were holding out on us for the last 8 weeks. Sunday will start with Tyreek Hill looking to show up his former team in Germany. Dak Prescott will try to outduel Jalen Hurts in Philadelphia after both quarterbacks passed for 300 yards and 4 touchdowns in Week 8. Finally, Sunday night will feature the Bills and Bengals with a running back that can be an advantage for the home team.

We also have some picks in Seahawks-Raves and Colts-Panthers in the early afternoon slate. You can find these picks and more using the player props section on OddsTrader, and we included the best sportsbooks to make these player props for Week 9.

Picks Summary

  • Zay Flowers (BAL) Over 55.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at BetRivers
  • Chuba Hubbard (CAR) Over 45.5 Rushing Yards (-108) at Caesars Sportsbook
  • Tyreek Hill (MIA) Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-105) at Caesars Sportsbook
  • Dak Prescott (DAL) Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+112) at Unibet
  • Joe Mixon (CIN) Over 64.5 Rushing Yards (-112) at BetRivers

Seattle Seahawks vs. Baltimore Ravens

Sunday, November 5, 2023 – 01:00 PM EST at M&T Bank Stadium


Zay Flowers (Baltimore Ravens)

After gaining at least 48 yards in each of his first 7 games, rookie wide receiver Zay Flowers had a frustrating day in Arizona last week. He caught another 5 balls on 7 targets, but they only gained 19 yards.

It was a tough game for the whole Baltimore offense outside of Gus Edwards, who rushed for 3 touchdowns. But Lamar Jackson should have to pass more this week as Seattle is a more formidable offense and opponent than the Cardinals were last week.

Jackson has thrown the ball well this year, but this offense is not designed to routinely pass for 300 yards. Still, you would like to see Jackson top 200 yards this week, and he should do so with Flowers bouncing back against a Seattle secondary that allows the 7th-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers this year.

The Pick

Flowers still has plenty of room for growth in this offense, but even in a down week in Arizona, the fact that he got 7 targets is encouraging. His connection with Jackson still looks stronger than what Odell Beckham Jr. has provided the team, and in this potential offensive game with Geno Smith on the other side, Flowers has a chance to shine and hit the big play he failed to make last week when he was under 20 yards.

NFL Pick: Zay Flowers Over 55.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at BetRivers (check our BetRivers Review)


Indianapolis Colts vs. Carolina Panthers

Sunday, November 5, 2023 – 04:05 PM EST at Bank of America Stadium


Chuba Hubbard (Carolina Panthers)

The Panthers won their first game last week for coach Frank Reich, but he cannot be happy with an offensive line that allowed 6 sacks and tied a season-low with 44 rushing yards.

Miles Sanders has been a free-agent bust since coming over from the Eagles, but at least the Panthers realize this and have started pushing Chuba Hubbard more as he’s had a much higher rushing success rate (60.9%) compared to Sanders (33.3%) this year.

But even Hubbard was held to 28 yards on 15 carries against Houston last week. The good news is he got 15 carries while Sanders only got 2 carries that led to 0 yards. If the Panthers continue this going forward, Hubbard is going to break through and have a solid game eventually.

The Pick

The angle here is the Panthers are home again, they finally got a win, and Reich is going to want to show up his former employer who fired him last year. The Colts also rank dead last in points allowed, and this game provides a good opportunity for the Carolina offense to have its most complete game of the season.

We won’t trust Hubbard to score a touchdown or anything like that, but a game where he can get a steady stream of carries and go over 45.5 yards on the ground is a game that Carolina has a very realistic shot to win. Sounds like a good NFL pick this week.

NFL Pick: Chuba Hubbard Over 45.5 Rushing Yards (-108) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)


Miami Dolphins vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Sunday, November 5, 2023 – 09:30 AM EDT at Deutsche Bank Park


Tyreek Hill (Miami Dolphins)

The narrative writes itself for this huge game. The Chiefs traded Tyreek Hill to Miami in 2022 and still won the Super Bowl with Patrick Mahomes having his most impressive season at carrying the team yet as the offense was still No. 1 and he won MVP.

But Hill has taken his game to another level in Mike McDaniel’s offense in Miami, and he is the favorite to win Offensive Player of the Year, and he may have the league’s first 2,000-yard receiving season at his current pace. This also has Tua Tagovailoa right up there in MVP odds with Mahomes.

Miami has the No. 1 offense this season, and the Chiefs just had an ugly 24-9 loss in Denver where the offense was largely to blame. Now the Dolphins can take the lead on the Chiefs in the AFC with a win in this one, and Hill figures to be chomping at the bit to light up his former team.

It makes for one of the juiciest revenge games since Terrell Owens went back to Philadelphia as a member of the Cowboys. But Hill is at the top of his game, and he has scored a touchdown in 7-of-8 games this season.

The Chiefs have been playing better defense than ever before in the Mahomes era, and that is something Hill will have to deal with. But that does not make them immune to giving up touchdowns to No. 1 receivers as Amon-Ra St. Brown (Lions) and Courtland Sutton (Broncos) have scored on the Chiefs this year. Tagovailoa and this offense are also easily the toughest draw yet for this Kansas City defense that will be challenged by the speed of this team, which Hill is the master of displaying on the field.

The Chiefs have the ring, but make no mistake about it, they are missing Hill in their offense.

The Pick

The great thing about Hill is that no matter if you lock him down for most of the game, he only has to get past a defensive back once and it can be a touchdown. He already has 6 touchdowns of 25-plus yards this season. But he also has 5 touchdowns that were scored inside the 4-yard line since he joined the Dolphins, and you know they are going to try to get him something in this matchup.

If you can find odds this good on Hill scoring a touchdown, take them, because this feels like the safer bet than his receptions or yardage lines this week. Remember, all it takes is one play for 6 points for Hill.

NFL Pick: Tyreek Hill Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-105) at Caesars Sportsbook


Dallas Cowboys vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Sunday, November 5, 2023 – 04:25 PM EDT at Lincoln Financial Field


Dak Prescott (Dallas Cowboys)

After 4 straight games without multiple touchdown passes, Dak Prescott wasn’t about to extend his longest streak since the 2018 season. He ended the drought in style with 4 touchdown passes in a 43-20 demolition of the Rams last week.

The Cowboys have played in so many lopsided games this year (wins and losses) that it has been hard to analyze Prescott’s performance in this new offense coordinated by coach Mike McCarthy.

But you can bet expectations will be low for Dak on the road in this big NFC East game with the Eagles. The Cowboys have earned this reputation with their lack of big wins in spots like this. Everyone saw Prescott throw 3 interceptions in a 42-10 loss in San Francisco in Week 5, and given what we’ve seen of the 49ers since, they are not that dominant of a team that Prescott had to play so poorly.

But do not sleep on him against the Eagles. Division games are weird, but the Eagles have not been a huge challenge for Prescott in recent years, especially since 2021 with McCarthy and Nick Sirianni as the coaches for these teams. In his last 3 games against Philadelphia, Prescott has 11 touchdown passes with at least 3 in each game.

One of Prescott’s finest games last year was against the Eagles when he threw for 347 yards, 3 touchdowns, and he converted a 3rd-and-30 in the 4th quarter to lead that 40-34 win. People will mention Jalen Hurts did not start that game, but Hurts does not play defense. Dak lit that unit up with 27-of-35 passing despite several drops. He also withstood the 6 sacks they got on him that day to drop 40 points.

This game comes down to matchups, and the Eagles have not had a good handle on Prescott like some other teams (49ers) have.

The Pick

Miami game aside, the Eagles do not look as great defensively this year. They create fewer turnovers (2 since Week 4), fewer sacks, and they allow more points than last year’s Super Bowl. The schedule is about to get way more difficult starting with this game too.

The Eagles may very well win this first matchup with Dallas at home, but you should still take Prescott to throw multiple touchdowns. It’s not like Tony Pollard (2 touchdowns) is stealing all the scores for this offense this year.

NFL Pick: Dak Prescott Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+112) at Unibet


Buffalo Bills vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Sunday, November 5, 2023 – 08:20 PM EDT at Paycor Stadium


Joe Mixon (Cincinnati Bengals)

The Cincinnati passing offense was so bad in the first 4 games this season when Joe Burrow was recovering from a calf injury that you have to wonder why they didn’t lean a little more on Joe Mixon and the running game.

While Burrow made moving the chains look difficult, Mixon survived that month with solid rushing numbers (61.8 yards per game and 4.19 yards per carry).

With Burrow looking healthier, the Bengals have won their last 3 games, and Mixon is now averaging 68.7 rushing yards and 3.89 yards per carry. Yes, the average gain decreased, but that has something to do with running with more leads and teams expecting it more.

But Mixon looked good in San Francisco with 16 carries for 87 yards and a late touchdown to put the 49ers away in a 31-17 win. Mixon has gone over 64.5 rushing yards in 4-of-7 games this season.

The Pick

While Joe Burrow gets much of the credit for the Bengals turning into contenders, most objective analysis would still tell you that Josh Allen is the better quarterback. But when it comes to these teams, a main difference in big games has been the Bengals providing more team support to Burrow while the Bills expect Allen to be Superman.

Not only does Cincinnati have a better wide receiver corps, but they give Burrow more of a running game and better defensive help than Allen gets in these key matchups. We saw it in January in the divisional round playoff game won 27-10 by the Bengals.

Cincinnati rushed for 172 yards with Mixon having 105 yards and a touchdown himself. Meanwhile, Allen only got 11 carries for 38 yards from his running game. The Bengals’ coaching staff is usually well-prepared for games like this one and last week’s win in San Francisco, and with Burrow healthy, they should be able to move the ball well again against Buffalo.

Mixon will be part of that, and he gets a Buffalo defense that allows an abysmal 5.1 yards per carry. That’s even before the recent injuries to key starters in the Buffalo defense, which should also help Mixon have a good game and hit his over for your NFL picks.

NFL Pick: Joe Mixon Over 64.5 Rushing Yards (-112) at BetRivers

*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.

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