Two WNBA games will take place tonight: Dream vs. Fever and Sun vs. Storm. Both games are worth investing in, so let’s take a look at the WNBA odds boards and find the best value!
The Picks
- Dream-Fever Under 167.5 (-110)
- Storm -18 (-110)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever
Friday, July 11, 2025 – 7:30 PM EDT at Gainbridge Fieldhouse
Atlanta’s Focus on Shooting Threes
On offense, the Dream primarily want to attempt three-pointers. It is telling that their leading scorer, Allisha Gray, is also their best three-point shooter. Their second-leading scorer, fellow guard Rhyne Howard, leads the team in three-point attempts with 9.8 per game.
If you were following Atlanta’s offseason, then this emphasis on three-pointers cannot come as a surprise.
The arrival of Karl Smesko as its head coach ensured this emphasis, given his coaching philosophy. Currently, the Dream attempts the second-most threes per game. They are one of three teams to average at least 29 three-point attempts per game.
Atlanta’s Shot-Making Matters
Unsurprisingly, the Dream offense does well when it shoots threes well and does poorly when it shoots threes poorly.
When, for example, they scored all of 55 points in their loss to Dallas, the Dream missed 27 of their 34 three-point attempts. Conversely, when, for example, they amassed 93 points against Chicago, they made 16 of their 33 three-point attempts.
To determine how well their offense will perform in a given game, we need to focus on the outlook for their three-point shooting endeavor.
Indiana’s Solid Perimeter Defense
Assessing the quality of Indiana’s perimeter defense is crucial for determining how this game will go.
The Fever have an excellent perimeter defense. They are well-stocked with great defenders, the most important of which is guard Lexie Hull. Fever fans and observers rave about her on-ball pressure, her ability to destroy opposing ball-screen actions, and other features of her perimeter defense.
She, along with Indiana’s other perimeter defenders, are able to operate more aggressively along the perimeter because they have strong shot-blockers, like Aliyah Boston, who averages over a block per game, behind them.
Indiana’s perimeter defenders can guard three-point shooters more aggressively because they know that if those shooters take advantage of that aggression to blow by them, then they will have to contend with the likes of Boston at the basket.
Because of Indiana’s solid perimeter defense, the Fever is the best team at limiting the opponent’s three-point efficiency and the fourth-best team at limiting the opponent’s three-point attempts.
These stats prove that the Fever are great at contesting three-point shots and at running teams off the three-point line. Defensively, the Fever are well-built to limit Atlanta’s offensive output.
Indiana’s Reliance on Scoring Inside
On offense, the Fever primarily want to attack the basket. True, they have Caitlin Clark, but she is just one player. Overall, Indiana ranks well in the bottom half in three-point attempts per game.
Boston is a major component of their offense, too. Out of every WNBA player, she attempts the third-most field goals within five feet of the basket. Kelsey Mitchell and Natasha Howard are other major components of their offense who focus on attacking the basket.
With players like these, Indiana attempts the second-most field goals within five feet of the basket. To outscore Atlanta, the Fever offense will need to do well in this space.
Atlanta’s Interior Defense
Given Indiana’s focus on scoring inside, it is crucial to understand how well Atlanta protects the basket.
The Dream frontcourt can count on its size, which is instrumental to its rim-protecting endeavor. Foremost is Brittney Griner, who has great length at 6’9. She is joined by the likes of former WNBA All-Defensive Team selection Brionna Jones, who helps secure Atlanta’s interior defense.
With players like these, the Dream defense allows the lowest field goal percentage within five feet of the basket.
The Pick
Oddsmakers do not account for matchup details. These are precisely what gives us confidence in a wager on the under.
Atlanta primarily wants to shoot threes, but the Fever have a great perimeter defense with which to make the Dream uncomfortable from behind the arc.
Likewise, Indiana’s offense will be uncomfortable because it primarily wants to score inside and has to contend with Atlanta’s lengthy and skilled interior defense.
WNBA Pick: Under 167.5 (-110) at Bet365
Connecticut Sun vs. Seattle Storm
Friday, July 11, 2025 – 10:00 PM EDT at Climate Pledge Arena
Key Trend for Connecticut
The situation calls for a fade of Connecticut: after the Sun wins a game, you must bet on their opponent to cover the spread. You have to understand that it is hard to win. Every team wins at some point, but stringing wins together is a whole different achievement than winning one game today and winning another game some days later.
The Sun are still learning how to win. They have, after all, a new head coach with a new support staff. Only two of their players returned from last year, whereas eleven players were new. So, their head coach, who had coached overseas before this season, is learning how to coach in the WNBA. His players are learning how to play together.
Trouble After Victory
Given these difficulties, the Sun are 0-2 ATS after a loss. Tellingly, they were not remotely competitive in either game.
After beating Indiana on May 30, they lost on June 1 to New York 100-52. Sure, New York is a good team, but that is a 48-point defeat! Likewise, they lost 104-67, by 37 points, to the mediocre Mystics on June 8 after they had defeated Atlanta on June 6.
Matchup details simply don’t matter — they are, anyhow, generally less likely to matter in a game with such a large spread because a well-focused inferior team might manage to avoid getting blown out. But the Sun is due to suffer a blow-out tonight.
WNBA Pick: Storm -18 (-110) at Bet365
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
