The sportsbooks have released their betting odds for tonight’s WNBA action. Both games, Sparks vs. Fever and Valkyries vs. Lynx, are worth investing in.
The Picks
- Fever -5.5 (-110)
- Valkyries-Lynx Under 155 (-110)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Indiana Fever
Saturday, July 5, 2025 – 7:00 PM EDT at Gainbridge Fieldhouse
The Correct Angle
With Fever superstar Caitlin Clark ruled ‘out’ for tonight’s game with a groin injury, bettors are eager to invest in the underdog Sparks. However, this eagerness is misplaced. It derives from a video-game-like understanding of sports where a team’s overall rating decreases when it loses skilled players.
The correct mindset encompasses a wait-and-see disposition: we need to see how a team looks without its star player. In the NBA, for example, Memphis for prolonged periods of time appeared to play better without its star guard.
This is the case right now for Indiana: the Fever have won their last two games, both of which Clark missed. They won at Dallas by eight points before, most recently, decimating Las Vegas 81-54.
Without Clark, Aliyah Boston, Kelsey Mitchell, and Natasha Howard are stepping up offensively. As evident in this last game, the defense is likewise excelling.
Clark’s absence thus does not give us reason to bet on the Sparks. The correct angle is not to fade Indiana without Clark but to expect Clark’s teammates to make up for her absence by contributing to a stronger team performance.
Concerns?
Sparks backers will want to say that the Sparks are worth betting on tonight because they won the last game against Indiana, when they beat the Fever 85-75 on June 26.
However, Fever backers tonight should be glad that that result took place because it ensures that Indiana players will come out with strong focus tonight. That result is for several reasons not going to repeat itself.
It’s important to know how exactly that game played out to understand that, rather than the Sparks winning it, the Fever lost that game. Primarily for this reason, that result must be viewed as the one game that the Sparks would win against the Fever if they were to play each other ten consecutive times.
In that game, the Fever led by as many as ten points in the final quarter, proving that they can beat the Sparks handily. They lost because their coach committed a blunder by deploying a small-ball lineup late that was ill-equipped to handle the Sparks’ size. One has to expect their coach to learn her lesson and to be smarter tonight.
Indiana’s Highly-Ranked Defense
In their last game, the Fever held Las Vegas to its lowest point total of the season. This game reflects the supreme ability of Indiana’s defense, which ranks number four in defensive rating.
Specifically, the Fever are one of the best teams at limiting opposing scoring around the basket. They are led here by Howard, who was a WNBA Defensive Player of the Year selection.
In the Fever’s last game, she helped lock down Lynx superstar Napheesa Collier to her second-lowest point total of the season. Collier normally thrives around the basket, so her struggle against Indiana’s defense is telling.
The Sparks won’t pose a greater challenge. Their heavy reliance on scoring in the space nearest the basket will pose a decisive detriment to their offensive output tonight.
The Sparks Don’t Defend Well
Los Angeles lacks the capacity on defense to contain Indiana’s offense. The Fever primarily want to score around the basket, further attesting to their ability to thrive on offense without Clark because she primarily shoots threes.
With efficient scorers like Boston, they attempt the second-most field goals within five feet of the basket. Their strong frontcourt does a lot to explain their comfort in this space.
They will thrive here against a Sparks defense that allows the second-most field goal makes within five feet of the basket.
The Pick
Indiana has the scoring talent to throttle a Sparks defense that most recently allowed 89 points to New York and 92 to Chicago. The strong Fever defense will benefit from matching up well against a Los Angeles group that relies on scoring inside.
WNBA Pick: Fever -5.5 (-110) at Bet365
Golden State Valkyries vs. Minnesota Lynx
Saturday, July 5, 2025 – 8:00 PM EDT at Target Center
Golden State’s Rematch Trend
Golden State is obviously not a great team, but it has won as many games as it has because of a great feature that it has. This feature is strong defense.
Natalie Nakase, Golden State’s head coach, was just named Coach of the Month for June primarily because of her team’s success on defense. Under her guidance, the Valkyries executed a wonderfully thought-out strategy for locking down Caitlin Clark on June 19. This is one example of Golden State’s defensive excellence.
Golden State’s strong defense and its head coach’s intelligence as a defensive game-planner have been evident throughout the season. Relevantly to tonight’s game, the Valkyries under Nakase have proven that they reliably take advantage of rematch situations by improving their defense.
When they lost their season-opener to the Sparks 84-67, they held the Sparks to eleven fewer points in their subsequent rematch. Then, they limited New York to 13 fewer points on May 29 than New York scored against them in their previous meeting. One must expect the Valkyries’ defense, as great as it’s been all year with its number two defensive rating, to be at its greatest in a rematch.
With Minnesota scoring 86 points in the one and only matchup between these teams, history tells us that the Valkyries will allow 10-15 fewer points tonight.
Golden State’s Three-Point Shooting
With the Lynx scoring around 75 points tonight, the Valkyries will need to score well over 75 points for the “over” to hit. This does not have a chance of happening.
First of all, generally speaking, Golden State has one of the WNBA’s worst offenses. This is evident in its poor offensive rating. The Valkyries lack scoring talent. They don’t get to the basket often. Primarily, the Valkyries want to shoot threes. But they lack efficient shooters and are the least efficient team behind the arc.
Minnesota’s defense matches up so well against Golden State because it is built to punish offenses for relying on threes. Among others, Bridget Carleton and teammate Kayla McBride excel at limiting the field goal efficiency of opposing players largely because they guard the perimeter well where they consistently bother players who try to score from behind the arc.
With women like these two, Minnesota is the second-best team at limiting the three-point efficiency of opponents.
The Pick
With Golden State’s defense in a great spot, per its rematch trend, the “under” is a sure play. Golden State’s offense is objectively bad and routinely very poor on the road, and now with its heavy reliance on scoring threes, it faces a matchup nightmare in the form of Minnesota’s perimeter defense.
WNBA Pick: Under 155 (-110) at Bet365
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