As one of the country’s biggest betting events, the Kentucky Derby comes complete with a massive range of betting markets. Some are more popular than others. Everyone knows you can bet on the winner of the race, and more seasoned pros are familiar with In The Money and Superfecta bets.
Picking the horse that will lose the race, though? As in, the horse that comes in last? That’s a little more unique. And potentially tougher to predict. None of the horses will be trying to lose, so the arguments for and against each contender aren’t as straightforward.
Nonetheless, there’s value in this betting market, especially at the industry’s best offshore sportsbooks. Below, we’ll go over the odds and find “favorites,” sleepers, and longshots to be the last horse to cross the finish line at the 2026 Kentucky Derby.
Who Will Finish Last at the Kentucky Derby?
Odds for the Kentucky Derby’s last-place finisher are current as of Wednesday, April 29, via BetOnline.
- Six Speed (+475)
- Great White (+550)
- Intrepido (+600)
- Albus (+900)
- Litmus Test (+1000)
- Right to Party (+1000)
- Pavlovian (+1000)
- So Happy (+1200)
- Wonder Dean (+1200)
- Chief Wallabee (+1400)
- Danon Bourbon (+1800)
- Fulleffort (+1800)
- Incredibolt (+2200)
- Emerging Market (+2200)
- Golden Tempo (+2200)
- Potente (+2500)
- The Puma (+4000)
- Further Ado (+4000)
- Renegade (+5000)
- Commandment (+5000)
It would make sense for this list to essentially be an inverse of the winner odds, and while that’s largely true, there are some exceptions to that rule. Six Speed has the third longest odds to win the Kentucky Derby, but is the clear favorite to finish last. Intrepido also has the third-shortest odds to come in last place despite ranking around the middle of the pack to win the race at +2500.
Favorites to Come in Last Place
Is there a safe bet on any of the horses in the field to finish in last place? Here are the favorites to “achieve” the feat.
Six Speed (+475)
As his name indicates, this horse is fast. The problem? He has very little staying power. If there was a market for which horse will lead at the halfway point before fading to the back, this would be your guy.
Six Speed has also never gone up against the best American horses, and North American tracks remain a relative unknown for him. While he may blaze out of the gate, there’s little evidence to suggest that he’ll be a major player in the race for long. If he doesn’t finish last, he’ll almost certainly be near the back of the pack.
Great White (+550)
Great White’s best performances have come on synthetic track surfaces, which raises concerns about how he’ll handle the dirt at Churchill Downs. He’s also massive (hence the name) and prone to slow starts, which could be troublesome in such a large field.
Great White has some pace-setting qualities that could help him stay out of last place, but he’s tended to fade over longer distances on dirt surfaces. He’s a 60-1 longshot to win the Kentucky Derby and a likely candidate to finish near the bottom of the standings.
Sleepers Who Could Finish Last
We’ve covered the most likely bottom feeders, but what about horses that are one misstep away from falling behind? The sleeper tier is home to boom-or-bust candidates.
Albus (+900)
Albus is inexperienced, and oddsmakers figure that he won’t be a major player near the top of the order: He has the longest odds to win the Kentucky Derby at +7500. Despite that, there are three horses with shorter odds to finish last.
Albus has taken part in just four races, and he’s never attempted the Derby’s 1.25-mile distance. Results aside (he’s one two of those four), his lack of preparation could result in a disastrous race day at Churchill Downs.
Pavlovian (+1000)
Unlike Albus, Pavlovian has the experience necessary to handle the Kentucky Derby. The problem? There’s a real lack of success here. Pavlovian has two wins in 10 races, with five shows. He’s a dirt specialist, though, which bodes well for his chances of competing.
Still, Pavlovian is an interesting play to finish last at +1000. He’s tied for the third longest odds to win the Derby at +5000, and while he’s shown some promise recently, his track record suggests that his best performances may not necessarily be the start of a trend.
Longshots to Finish in Last Place
We’ve saved the best for last. It would take something major for either of the horses in this category to finish last, but crazier things have happened at Churchill Downs.
Golden Tempo (+2200)
Golden Tempo is tied for the fourth-longest odds to win the Derby at +2800, but this +2200 line to finish last seems to suggest that he’s one of the favorites. The potential misprice is only part of the equation.
This horse has won two of his four races, but he came in third in the last two, meaning he’s losing momentum entering the Derby. That inexperience, paired with his declining form, makes him an interesting longshot bet to come in last.
Renegade (+5000)
Renegade is the betting favorite to win the Kentucky Derby, so only a true catastrophe would cause him to finish last. He drew an unfortunate gate position, though – Renegade will break from Post 1 – and if he’s swallowed up by the field early, he could fall to the back in a hurry.
One other thing worth considering: Renegade will be ridden by Irad Ortiz Jr., and while he’s an accomplished jockey, he’s 0-for-9 when it comes to winning the Derby. In fact, he’s never finished higher than fourth.
Responsible Gaming
Sports betting should add to the thrill of game day, never take away from it. Practice responsible gaming by setting a budget you can actually afford to lose, sticking to it, and treating each wager as entertainment instead of a payday. Chasing losses or borrowing cash to bet are red flags worth taking seriously. If gambling starts feeling more like a problem than a pastime, call the National Council on Problem Gambling at 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help anytime.
Best Last Place Finisher Bets for the Kentucky Derby
Six Speed is the favorite to finish last, and for good reason. His lack of staying power and inexperience against top competition mean he’ll likely have a tough day at the track.
Of the sleepers, I lean toward Albus being the best bet at +900. Inexperience is another big factor here, and oddsmakers have him listed at the longest odds to win the Derby. There’s plenty of value here.
And while I’m tempted to place a small wager on Renegade at +5000, Golden Tempo seems like the most likely longshot that could struggle to meet expectations. It’s rarely a good sign to lose races coming into the Derby, and this horse’s best performances came in the winter.
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
