The NBA Play-In Tournament has proven, in time, to become one of the league’s more recent success stories. Opinions were mixed upon its announcement, but the tournament has delivered instant classics between superstars and been the origin story of some of the postseason’s biggest underdogs.
This year’s Play-In Tournament features familiar teams and storylines. In the East, we’ll see the Philadelphia 76ers, Orlando Magic, Charlotte Hornets and Miami Heat battle it out. Out West, it’s the Phoenix Suns, Portland Trail Blazers, Los Angeles Clippers and Golden State Warriors.
Before action gets underway on April 14, we’re taking a closer look at the history of the tournament and this year’s matchups, as well as betting angles and trends worth taking advantage of. All betting data provided by the top offshore sportsbooks reviewed by OddsTrader.
How the NBA Play-In Tournament Works
The Play-In Tournament is entering its sixth year in its current format, but there’s still some confusion surrounding some of the rules and qualification methods. Allow us to clear things up:
Teams seeded 7-10 in each conference’s standings make the Play-In Tournament. The No. 7 seed plays the No. 8 seed, with the winner advancing to the playoffs and taking on the No. 2 seed. The loser of the 7-8 game plays the winner of the 9-10 game, and the winner of that matchup makes the playoffs and pairs up with the No. 1 seed.
Historical Seed Performance
When targeting Play-In bets, it can be useful to consider past results – especially because they tell us, overwhelmingly, that this tournament belongs to the No. 7 seeds.
7 Seeds: From 2021 to 2025, every single team has advanced to the playoffs. No. 7 seeds aren’t perfect in the first play-in game – two have lost – but both of those teams won the following matchup against the winner of the 9-vs-10 game.
8 Seeds: Six out of 10 No. 8 seeds have ultimately gone on to play in the postseason. As mentioned above, these squads are just 2-8 in the 7-vs-8 matchup, but they’ve split the next eight against the 9-vs-10 winner.
9 Seeds: The 9-vs-10 matchup leans slightly in favor of No. 9 seeds with a 6-4 edge. It makes sense that this game has historically been tighter – both teams are facing elimination, after all. No. 9 seeds are 3-3 against the loser of the 7-vs-8 game. Overall, three out of 10 No. 9 seeds have advanced to the playoffs.
10 Seeds: The outlook isn’t great at the bottom of the standings. No. 10 seeds are 4-6 against No. 9s, but the work doesn’t end there, as these teams are required to win a second game against the loser of the 7-vs-8 matchup to prove their playoff mettle. Just one out of 10 No. 10 seeds has appeared in the playoffs.
Of course, the conversation requires more nuance than simple seed facts. The circumstances by which teams end up in these positions are never the same, and injuries loom large this time of year. Just because No. 7s have done well in the past doesn’t mean you should bet the house on this year’s teams.
When it comes to value, it’s best to consider parity and travel further down the standings. The 9-vs-10 matchup has historically been much closer than the 7-vs-8, and No. 9 seeds have split all six games against the loser of the 7-vs-8 matchup.
Play-In Teams With Playoff Success
Most teams that emerge from the Play-In Tournament flame out once they reach the postseason, but there have been a few instances where these groups have gone on to make some serious noise.
2023 Miami Heat
This team is the pinnacle of Play-In Tournament success. The Heat finished seventh in the Eastern Conference and lost their opening play-in game against the Atlanta Hawks, putting them in a do-or-die scenario against the Chicago Bulls. Miami pulled out a narrow win and never looked back.
After earning the No. 8 seed, the Heat went on to shock the top-seeded Milwaukee Bucks in the opening round, winning 4-1 and clinching the series with an overtime victory on the road in Game 5. The story continued in the second round, as Miami scored a 4-2 win over the New York Knicks.
The Eastern Conference Finals brought all the drama. The Heat took a 3-0 series lead over the No. 2 Boston Celtics before nearly becoming the first team in NBA history to blow such a lead. Miami needed a seventh game to put the Celtics away for good, winning 103-84 on the road.
The Heat’s hot streak ran out in the NBA Finals, where they fell 4-1 to the Denver Nuggets. Still, Miami greatly surpassed expectations and provided a blueprint for Play-In teams of the future.
2023 Los Angeles Lakers
While the Heat were making their run through the East, the Lakers were pulling off a similar feat in the West. After defeating the Minnesota Timberwolves in their first play-in game, Los Angeles advanced to the playoffs and promptly defeated the No. 2 Memphis Grizzlies 4-2 in the first round.
A second-round series against the Golden State Warriors brought back memories – it was LeBron James’ first time playing Stephen Curry in the playoffs since the 2018 NBA Finals. The Lakers took a 3-1 lead before closing the series out in six and advancing to the Western Conference Finals.
The road ended here, as the Denver Nuggets earned a series sweep. It was close, though, with all four games being decided by a combined margin of just 24 points. As we know, the Nuggets went on to defeat the Heat in the NBA Finals.
2025 Golden State Warriors
Veteran Play-In teams have a habit of knocking off younger, more inexperienced playoff opponents, and the 2025 Warriors are an excellent example of that.
After defeating the Grizzlies in their first game, Golden State matched up with the No. 2 Houston Rockets in the first round. The Warriors had been successful in the season series, and that showed in the playoffs. Curry’s squad took a 3-1 lead before winning the clinching Game 7 on the road.
Golden State kept it going to open the second round, winning 99-88 in Game 1 against the Timberwolves. Minnesota flipped the script the rest of the way, though, and won the series 4-1.
Betting Angles and Trends to Exploit
First and foremost, it’s essential to set reasonable expectations for the winners of the Play-In Tournament. Of the 20 teams that have advanced to the playoffs, only three have actually won a first-round series. This means that 85 percent of the time, it’s a wrap.
When it comes to the play-in games themselves, it’s worth targeting the No. 7 seed in its first matchup. These teams get home-court advantage and have generally done well against No. 8 seeds, going 8-2 all-time. However, these matchups have been fairly tight. The average margin of victory is just 5.5 points, and most were decided by eight points or less.
Upsets most frequently occur in the elimination games. The 9-vs-10 matchup has gone 6-4 in favor of the No. 9, and of those six winners, three have defeated the loser of the 7-vs-8 matchup. Only once has a No. 10 seed won the 9-vs-10 game and the subsequent matchup to punch its ticket to the playoffs.
Overs and unders are a bit of a mixed bag. Let’s look at the results by year:
- 2021: 3-3 split.
- 2022: All six games went under.
- 2023: 2-4 in favor of the under.
- 2024: 2-4 in favor of the under.
- 2025: 4-2 in favor of the over.
Overall, 19 out of 30 games have gone under the projected total, and 2025 was the only year in which there were more overs than unders. This tells us that the higher stakes leads to more competitive defense.
Lastly, here’s yet another disclaimer to heed caution in tailing the public. Historically, the public is inclined to bet the moneyline on home favorites, and while that can be a winning strategy, there’s more value to be found in betting on the right underdogs against the spread.
2026 Play-In Tournament Matchups and Betting Angles
Now that we’ve established some trends and set the stage, let’s take a look at this year’s matchups and best betting angles.
Eastern Conference
No. 7 Philadelphia 76ers (45-37) vs. No. 8 Orlando Magic (45-37)
Philadelphia bounced back from a disappointing season and lived up to expectations, ever so slightly surpassing their projected total of 43.5 wins. Tyrese Maxey has been in the driver’s seat all year, averaging over 28 points per game and earning an All-Star nod in the process.
Joel Embiid and Paul George are here, too, but each played under 40 games. Embiid’s status for the Play-In Tournament is doubtful – he underwent an appendectomy just before the end of the regular season and has yet to have a return timeline established, meaning the 76ers will again be shorthanded for their most important game of the season.
Orlando is an equal 45-37, but it’s a different story for a team that was expected to win well over 50 games. Paolo Banchero had a down year, Franz Wagner missed more than half of the season and the Magic struggled in many of the same areas that we’ve grown accustomed to.
Orlando won five of its last six games to close to the regular season, but it had trouble with Philadelphia throughout the year, going 1-2 with the lone win coming courtesy of a 31-point outburst off the bench from Anthony Black. The Magic lost the others by 12 points apiece.
The 76ers are favored by 1.5 points at BetOnline in what’s expected to be a tight, low-scoring game. The winner advances to take on the Boston Celtics in the first round, so it’s unlikely that either Philadelphia or Orlando will go on a deep run.
No. 9 Charlotte Hornets (44-38) vs. No. 10 Miami Heat (43-39)
It’s been a tale of two seasons for the Hornets. Once 4-14, Charlotte turned things around in early January and has since been one of the NBA’s best teams, posting the highest net rating (+10.7) since the first of the year. The Spurs are the only other team with a double-digit net rating during the stretch.
The Hornets are finally healthy, but they’re also playing inspired basketball on both ends of the floor under Charles Lee. LaMelo Ball drives the action, while Brandon Miller, rookie Kon Knueppel and Miles Bridges finish it. Charlotte will not be an easy out.
Miami is stumbling into the Play-In Tournament following a 5-10 stretch to end the regular season. Aside from Bam Adebayo’s 83-point performance, there hasn’t been much to be excited about this year. The Heat play fast, but they’re average on offense and defense.
Miami won three out of four against Charlotte this season, including a 128-120 victory on March 6. The most recent matchup could be most indicative of what’s to come, though, and the Hornets won that one 136-106 on March 17.
Bovada has Charlotte listed as a 5.5-point favorite. This will be the Hornets’ first home “playoff” game since 2016, when they lost to the Heat in the first round, so expect the crowd to be energized. The loser is eliminated, while the winner goes on to play the loser of 76ers-Magic.
Western Conference
No. 7 Phoenix Suns (45-37) vs. No. 8 Portland Trail Blazers (42-40)
The Suns weren’t supposed to be a playoff team this year – they were projected to win 30.5 games – and yet, thanks to a stout defense, they earned the No. 7 seed in the West. Phoenix plays slow and disciplined and has one of the highest 3-point attempt rates in the league.
The Suns have not played especially well against top competition, but they’ve consistently proven to be a cut above other teams in their range. Notably, they’ve gone 2-1 against the Trail Blazers, with both wins coming on the road.
Portland is another surprise qualifier for the Play-In Tournament. The Trail Blazers have gone 19-14 since February behind impressive play from first-time All-Star Deni Avdija, who’s averaging 24.2 points, 6.9 rebounds and 6.7 assists per game.
This group is fairly average on both ends of the floor but can occasionally pull off a big upset when it gets hot from 3-point range. The Blazers attempt the third most 3-pointers per game but are hitting at just 34.3 percent – the third worst rate in the league.
BookMaker has Phoenix as a 4-point favorite. The winner of this series will take on the San Antonio Spurs in the first round, and neither team will be given much of a chance against one of the NBA’s title favorites.
No. 9 Los Angeles Clippers (42-40) vs. No. 10 Golden State Warriors (37-45)
The Clippers couldn’t get out of their own way to begin the season, winning just six of their first 27 games. Los Angeles turned it around from there, though, going 36-19 the rest of the way. They enter the Play-In Tournament as one of the NBA’s hottest teams and can’t be taken lightly.
The new core looks different. Kawhi Leonard is still one of the best players in the league, but now he’s flanked by Darius Garland and Bennedict Mathurin, providing the Clippers with a younger edge that’s been missing for years.
Golden State, on the other hand, is visibly aging and on the decline. The Warriors are 10-23 since Jan. 28, a time during which Stephen Curry appeared in just five games. The 12-time All-Star returned from a lengthy absence on April 5, but he’ll be on a minutes restriction for the Play-In Tournament.
To date, Curry has four Play-In games under his belt. The Warriors won just one of those, defeating the Grizzlies in the No. 7 vs. No. 8 game in 2025. Golden State used that as momentum and upset the Rockets in the first round before losing to the Timberwolves in the second.
The Clippers – who beat the Warriors 115-110 on Sunday – are 5-point favorites at BetOnline. Should they win here, they’ll play either the Suns or Trail Blazers for a shot at the No. 8 seed. Think they can stay hot and qualify? The Clippers are +225 to make the playoffs at Everygame.
How to Bet the Play-In Tournament
There are a few ways to approach betting on the NBA Play-In Tournament. Whether you prefer traditional betting markets or prefer to branch out, there’s something for you.
For the single elimination games, you’ll find value in betting moneylines, spreads and totals. We’ve established that No. 7 seeds are 8-2 outright against No. 8 seeds in the opening game, but the margin of victory tends to be slim. Use that to your advantage.
Games are spread across three days (Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday), which creates interesting parlay opportunities. With two games per day, you can keep things simple and target moneylines or bring player props into the equation. Props are especially intriguing in single elimination games, as star players play more minutes and see elevated usage rates.
Live betting is also a viable option if you’re good at analyzing the flow of a game. Momentum swings are prevalent, and fourth quarters often play massive roles in determining the winner. In 2023, for instance, the Heat trailed by six with under eight minutes to play against the Bulls but went on to win 102-91. Targeting potential momentum shifts or betting on the trailing team at halftime could pay dividends.
