Every part of the world has one sport that matters more than all the others. For the North Caucasus part of Russia (including the republics of Chechnya and Dagestan), that sport is wrestling, and thanks to their dominance, the world of mixed-martial arts has changed forever. First, it was Khabib Nurmagomedov destroying the UFC Lightweight division and retiring undefeated; now it’s Middleweight champion Khamzat Chimaev threatening to do the same.
Will Chimaev still be the champion after UFC 328? He’ll take on Sean Strickland in Saturday’s main event at the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey, and while Strickland is a former champ himself, the real-time betting odds suggest this will be yet another beatdown for the pride of Chechnya.
Khamzat Chimaev vs. Sean Strickland Betting Breakdown
Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev, May 9th, 11:35 PM ET
Saturday’s marquee fight has already been a drubbing at the sportsbooks. According to the UFC lines at OddsTrader, Chimaev (15-0 lifetime) opened as the –500 favorite, although some overseas books had Chimaev as long as –400; now the champion is a –600 chalk at Bovada after a heavy burst of early action.
It’s hard to bet against someone who’s never lost before. making him a staple in today’s betting picks. Even more impressive are those seven fight bonuses Chimaev has earned in nine UFC appearances since his 2020 debut. Knockouts, submissions, decisions – Chimaev has every type of victory on his resume, although it’s his grappling that really comes to the fore.
Between the Links: Khamzat Chimaev vs. Sean Strickland, UFC 328, Prates runs over Della Maddalena https://t.co/Hlb87adxNC
— MMA Fighting (@MMAFighting) May 7, 2026
Strickland (30-7) can wrestle, or at least he has good takedown defense, but he’s more noted for his fists, earning 12 wins by KO/TKO and just four via submission. This will be an interesting clash of styles; if Strickland controls the distance as he often does, keeping Chimaev within striking range without letting him get too close, we could see one of the bigger upsets the UFC has witnessed in a while. Under 2.5 rounds (–135) might be the sharper bet if you want to avoid eating chalk this Saturday.
- Expert Pick: Bet on Chimaev under 3.5 rounds (-135) at BetOnline.
Why the Over Has Value in Van vs. Taira
Tastsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van, May 9th, 10:50 PM ET
We’ve got a second title match for Newark, and it’s the Flyweight bout that was originally scheduled for UFC 327 last month. Joshua Van (16-2 lifetime) is the champion, a Burmese-American fighting out of Houston; Tatsuro Taira (18-1) is the challenger from Japan, and he’s the –175 favorite at press time, down slightly from –190 at the “official” open.
In theory, you could have bet Taira at –150 on the overseas market, but that price disappeared quickly under an avalanche of early money. There’s been frenzied action back and forth on both sides ever since, which is fitting for a matchup that looks like a toss-up on paper. Because of this pre-fight volatility, waiting to find an edge at the top live betting sportsbooks might be your sharpest move.
That’s the Flyweight division for you; Over 3.5 rounds (–125) seems like an easy call, given that 53.98% of UFC title fights at 125 pounds have gone the distance.
- Expert Pick: Bet on Taira Over 3.5 rounds (-125) at BetOnline.
Why Waldo Cortes-Acosta Could Be UFC 328’s Best Underdog
Waldo Cortes vs. Alexander Volkov, May 9th, 2026,
The third bout on the main card features former Bellator and M-1 Global Heavyweight champion Alexander Volkov (39-11 lifetime), one of the best fighters never to get a title shot inside the Octagon. A win this Saturday over Waldo Cortes-Acosta (17-2) could change all that, and Volkov is the –183 favorite at press time after opening at –180.
Don’t be fooled into thinking the market’s been stable all this time. As we frequently highlight in our betting breakdowns, early action on Cortes-Acosta sent his odds from +160 all the way to even money before Volkov’s supporters showed up. This is MMA, where early money isn’t as sharp as in other sports, but the betting value here is with the younger Cortes-Acosta, especially after January’s big TKO win over Derrick Lewis at UFC 324.
- Expert Pick: Bet on Cortes-Acosta over 2.5 (-230) at BetOnline.
MMA Is Better at OddsTrader
You can expect a lot more betting action as the weekend gets closer, so if you want the best UFC odds for your UFC 328 picks, make sure to sign up for accounts at multiple sportsbooks and time your wagers to stay ahead of the betting public.
Responsible Gaming
It’s important to approach betting responsibly. Follow these tips to help manage your play:
- Manage your bankroll: Only wager what you can afford to lose.
- Avoid chasing losses: Emotional betting often leads to poor decisions.
- Stay disciplined: Stick to a strategy rather than reacting impulsively to results.
- Recognize variance: Don’t put too much emphasis on trends in small samples.
- Utilize responsible gaming tools: If you need a temporary break, don’t hesitate to do so.
*21+ Seek help with a gambling addiction at 1-800-Gambler
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
