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The United Football League (UFL) is here to quench your thirst for spring football leagues. The league is a merger between the USFL and XFL, both of which completed full seasons a year ago and are each sending 4 teams to this new endeavor.
The top-rated sportsbooks will have the usual markets available for betting on the moneyline, spread and total in each UFL game this season. The regular season is 10 weeks long with 4 games each weekend as the teams are split into USFL and XFL conferences to build up a rivalry.
Before Week 1 kicks off this Saturday, we wanted to share some thoughts on how to bet spring football leagues such as the UFL.
Coaching Consistency
While coaching isn’t everything in football, it is still very important, and quite arguably more important than it is in a turn-style sport like baseball and a back-and-forth game where the 5 players matter more like in basketball.
A deep coaching staff can also mean more than just having a great head coach and middling assistants around them. But in this regard, the UFL should see a lot of coaching consistency as 6-of-8 teams are retaining the coach and much of the staff they had in 2023.
The new coaching changes are in San Antonio, where the Brahmas have replaced Hines Ward with Wade Phillips, a big upgrade, especially on defense. However, given the struggles of the Brahmas on offense last year, they could still be in for a long season as they have the worst odds (+1400) of any team to win the UFL Championship Game. But the addition of Phillips could make betting the unders more appealing in their games as he hopes to improve the defense.
The other coaching change is John DeFilippo taking over the Memphis Showboats, who have the 3rd-lowest odds to win it all at +800. However, he was 7-3 in New Orleans last year in the USFL, so maybe he can have an impact there.
Still, the coaching consistency at the top should help the best teams win at a high rate against the league’s bottom dwellers.
The Quarterbacks Still Matter Most
Whether it is the college game, CFL, NFL, or spring leagues such as the UFL, the quarterback position usually matters more than anything in determining who wins and loses games.
You saw this last year in both the USFL and XFL as the top quarterbacks paced most of the best teams:
- In the XFL, the DC Defenders had a league-best 9-1 record and the No. 1 offense thanks to quarterback Jordan Ta’amu, the Offensive Player of the Year, as he led the XFL with 8.3 yards per pass attempt.
- The best team to miss the XFL playoffs was the St. Louis Battlehawks (7-3 record), who had former NFL quarterback A.J. McCarron as their starter. He led the league with 24 touchdown passes and a 108.4 passer rating, overcoming a shoddy offensive line.
- The Arlington Renegades won the XFL championship despite finishing 4-6 in the regular season, but a late trade for quarterback Luis Perez, the XFL Championship Game MVP, helped turn their fortunes in the playoffs.
- In the USFL, Birmingham backup quarterback Alex McGough had to take over for an injured starter in Week 1, and all he did was win MVP as he threw a league-high 20 touchdowns, averaged a league-best 7.9 yards per attempt and led the Stallions to another championship.
- Outside of the Stallions, the only other USFL team with a winning record was New Orleans (7-3), and quarterback McLeod Bethel-Thompson led the league with 2,433 passing yards and was the only other quarterback besides McGough to average over 7.0 yards per pass attempt.
Quarterback Quest
Even in spring football leagues, the most efficient and effective passing games and quarterbacks tend to win the most. Just for reference, here are the championship odds for the 2024 UFL Championship Game going into Week 1:
- Birmingham Stallions (+300)
- St. Louis Battlehawks (+350)
- DC Defenders (+380)
- Arlington Renegades (+475)
- Houston Roughnecks (+650)
- Memphis Showboats (+800)
- Michigan Panthers (+1300)
- San Antonio Brahmas (+1400)
It should come as no surprise that the teams that know how to pass the ball and get good quarterback play are at the top. The Stallions will revert back to J’Mar Smith, who was the starter in 2022 when they won the championship. The Battlehawks have brought McCarron back as their starter, Ta’amu is still with the Defenders and Luis Perez is re-signed and ready for a full year with the defending XFL champion Renegades.
Trust the teams with the better quarterbacks when you are making your bets on the spread and moneyline. They should reveal themselves quickly, as it is arguably easier to separate in a league where the offensive lines and running games may not be as evolved as they would be with NFL talent. The quarterbacks who can manage the pass rush and find their receivers accurately on a consistent basis are built for success in the UFL.
Which League Will Have the Upper Hand?
The rivalry aspect of the UFL could be interesting as the league is split into conferences for the USFL and XFL with 4 teams each:
USFL Conference:
- Birmingham Stallions
- Houston Roughnecks
- Memphis Showboats
- Michigan Panthers
XFL Conference:
- Arlington Renegades
- DC Defenders
- San Antonio Brahmas
- St. Louis Battlehawks
While the Stallions are the championship favorites as they seek a 3rd-straight ring, the other top 3 teams are from the XFL. Could we see better play early from the XFL in this merged league?
Here were some of the offensive averages from each league in the 2023 regular season (each played 10 games):
- 2023 XFL Stats: 21.65 points per game, 176.0 first downs per team, 41.2% conversion rate on 3rd down and 45.0% conversion rate on 4th down.
- 2023 USFL Stats: 21.15 points per game, 169.5 first downs per team, 39.8% conversion rate on 3rd down and 48.3% conversion rate on 4th down.
The scoring average was very similar in both leagues at just over 21 points per game, but the XFL teams were better at converting on 3rd down and were a little more likely to go for it on 4th downs.
The UFL has adopted the XFL systems for overtime (best-of-3 shootouts on 2-point conversions from the 5) and extra points (no kicks; 1-to-3 points scored based on line of scrimmage). That could make the game look more like the XFL brand than the USFL brand.
But a change that could impact every team is that the kickoffs will be traditional NFL-style kickoffs from the 20-yard line. That should mean returns and not just boring touchbacks. That also should mean better starting field position for the offense, which can lead to more scoring and might be good for overs hitting.
But it will be fun to track which offenses emerge as the best, if any USFL quarterback can get on the level of the XFL’s established trio of quality passers, and if the Stallions can pull off a 3-peat.
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
