We’ve got a 13-game slate in the MLB today! While the AI Model isn’t predicting a ton of upsets on the moneyline, there are still many player props with plus-money odds that we can attack! Here are three underdog bets to consider at the top-rated sportsbooks.
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Picks Summary:
- Angel Martínez Under .5 Singles (+108)
- Marcus Semien Under .5 Hits (+140)
- Vinnie Pasquantino Over 1.5 Total Bases (+120)
*All odds from Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees
Thursday, June 05, 2025 – 07:05 PM EDT at Yankee Stadium
The AI Model believes Angel Martínez will hit just .374 singles in tonight’s game. With his prop at .5, the Under is the play at +108.
Not Today, Angel!
Angel Martínez has actually been one of the bright spots for the Guardians against lefties over the last 30 days. He’s hit a .211 ISO and wOBA of .337 with only 13.6% of strikeouts. However, he’s a switch-hitter and will face Max Fried of the Yankees tonight.
That’s simply not ideal. Over the last 30 days, Fried has limited right-handed batters to a .070 ISO and woBA of .236 with 56.9% of ground balls and only 13.8% of fly balls allowed. He’s also struck out close to 25% of batters in that time and has walked only 3.3% of batters.
While Martínez has put up some good numbers against lefties, he’s still only added a .250 BABIP with 35.3% of hard contact and a 5.9% barrel percentage. That’s not going to get the job done against a lefty like Fried.
The Pick
Let’s back Angel Martínez to hit below .5 singles in tonight’s game at +108. He’ll likely struggle to even get to first base against Fried.
MLB Pick: Angel Martínez Under .5 Singles (+108) at Caesars Sportsbook
Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Thursday, June 05, 2025 – 07:35 PM EDT at George M. Steinbrenner Field
The AI Model thinks Marcus Semien will add .573 hits. Although his prop is at .5, since the Under is juiced to +140, there’s still plenty of value on the Under. This is another plus-money underdog player prop to consider for tonight’s slate.
Don’t Count On Marcus Semien!
Marcus Semien has really struggled at the plate against right-handed pitching over the last month. It’s been so bad that he’s now batting 6th in the lineup when he started the season as the lead-off hitter.
Anyway, he’s added a .108 ISO and wOBA of .304 against his last 77 righties. He’s also hit a .265 wOBA during that stretch and will now take on Ryan Pepiot of the Rays.
Pepiot has limited his last 83 righties to a .052 ISO and wOBA of .235. He’s also only walked righties 6% of the time. Maybe the strikeouts can be higher, but overall, he’s kept righties to a .231 wOBA. That’s elite stuff.
The Pick
Semien has struggled a lot over the last month. Let’s fade him to earn no hits at +140 odds.
MLB Pick: Marcus Semien Under .5 Hits (+140) at Caesars Sportsbook
Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Thursday, June 05, 2025 – 07:45 PM EDT at Busch Stadium
The AI Model thinks Vinnie Pasquantino will earn 1.094 total bases in Game 2 of tonight’s Cardinals-Royals doubleheader. Since Pasquantio’s Over is sitting at +120, there’s value backing Pasquantio to total at least two bases.
Pasquantino Isn’t Bad Against Lefties!
Maybe the production hasn’t been there recently. However, Vinnie Pasquantino still has analytics that suggest he is alright against left-handed starters.
Pasquantino has added 52.6% of hard contact and 26.3% of line drives against lefties over the last month. That’s led him to a .316 BABIP, which is really good as a left-handed hitter against other lefties.
He’ll battle Matthew Liberatore of the Cardinals. He’s a lefty who has allowed a .290 BABIP and has only struck out 22.5% of batters. If Pasquantino can put the ball in play, he could find some success against Liberatore and the rest of the Cardinals’ pitching.
The Pick
Let’s take Pasquantino to add at least two total bases tonight.
MLB Pick: Vinnie Pasquantino Over 1.5 Total Bases (+120) at Caesars Sportsbook
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