The top sportsbooks have released their NBA odds for today’s game between the Mavericks and Thunder, and I like Dallas.

My recommendation is backed by OddsTrader’s computer AI and by my handicapping.

For more computer picks for today, go to:

• Bucks vs. Magic NBA Computer Pick
• Hawks vs. Pacers NBA Computer Pick

NBA Pick: Mavericks +19.5 (-105) at Bet365(check our Bet365 Review)

Dallas Mavericks vs. Oklahoma City Thunder

Sunday, April 14, 2024 – 03:30 PM ET at Paycom Center

Our computers indicate that, despite being very heavy underdogs, the Mavericks will win.

As a conservative-minded gambler, I principally like to play it safe and take the points.

Dallas’ Situation

The Mavericks are heavy underdogs because they are going to rest their starters. Yes, this means no Luka Doncic and no Kyrie Irving.

But this presents a unique opportunity for bettors.

Oddsmakers are clueless as to how they should price such a game because there is so little data out there to suggest how good or bad the Mavericks are when they are benching so many players.

While they did lose by 18 to Detroit, this is just a one-game sample.

Easy Bet?

The Thunder look like an easy bet because they are a much stronger team than Detroit, but the Mavericks bench players are also going to be a lot stronger today.

They struggled on offense – on defense, they held the Pistons to below their scoring average – because they were not used to the expanded role and added responsibility that they were given. The Detroit game was a huge learning experience for them that they will build off of.

They will be motivated to prove themselves and to earn more playing time, so they will continue to make an effort.

Key Matchup Factor

The key is that Dallas is very deep when it comes to the three-point shooting prowess of their bench players.

For example, Josh Green shots 39.3 percent from deep. Jaden Hardy and Tim Hardaway Jr. are also comfortable shooting a lot of shots from deep.

Three-point shooting is something that Dallas likes to do a lot of. Oklahoma City is a good opponent for Dallas because the Thunder struggle to defend shots behind the arc. They rank 23rd at limiting opposing made three-pointers.

Dallas’ offense will at least keep this game respectable.

NBA Pick: Mavericks +19.5 (-105) at Bet365

*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.