If you want to beat the NFL odds for Week 4, pay close attention to backup quarterbacks and special teams. Both were prominently featured in Week 3 of the 2025 campaign, from that crazy comeback win (and cover) by Philadelphia to Mac Jones and Eddie Pineiro saving the day for San Francisco.
At least one side in our three biggest marquee matchups for Week 4 will be led by a back-up QB. As for the remaining five, their performance thus far on special teams could make all the difference for your NFL picks.
Baltimore vs. Kansas City (KC +2.5)
Sunday, September 28, 04:25 PM EDT
The Ravens (1-2 SU and ATS) will be playing on a short week after Monday night’s disappointing 38-30 loss to Detroit as 4.5-point home faves, which has just wrapped up as we go to press.
Baltimore had steamed from +1.5 at the open to –2.5 heading into their tilt with the Lions; check the live NFL odds you see above for further line movement as the betting public reacts to Monday’s result.
Their reaction to Kansas City (also 1-2 SU and ATS) and their 22-9 win over the N.Y. Giants (+6 at home) on Sunday was mostly negative. Consensus reports are still being generated for this Week 4 battle, but we did see some big money driving those football lines toward Baltimore heading into their Monday Night Football appearance.
Philadelphia vs. Tampa Bay (TB +3)
Sunday, September 28, 01:00 PM EDT
It took a blocked field goal TD return by Jordan Davis to save the Eagles (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) last Sunday, and to cover that 3.5-point spread in their 33-26 victory over the L.A. Rams.
The very early consensus reports at press time show 65% support for Tampa Bay (also 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS) as 3-point home dogs after PK Chase McLaughlin recovered from yet another late blocked FG return to beat the N.Y. Jets (+6.5 away) 29-27.
The Bucs have their supporters, but reports indicate larger and sharper bets on the defending Super Bowl champs; their vigorish at –3 has crept up from –105 to –115 since the first NFL lines hit the board. Meanwhile, total has dipped from 46.5 to 44.5 despite 86% early support for the Over, as the sharps once again pound the Under with big bets.
Minnesota vs. Pittsburgh (PIT +2.5)
Sunday, September 28, 09:30 AM EDT
Welcome to Croke Park in Dublin, where the Steelers (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) opened as 1.5-point “home” dogs before moving to +2.5 in early betting.
After failing to cover their first two games, Pittsburgh was fairly unconvincing in their 21-14 victory over New England (+1 at home), putting up just 203 yards of total offense.
The Vikings (2-1 SU and ATS) are on the good foot after their 48-10 romp over Cincinnati (+3 away), but it’s the Steelers showing 56% consensus while Minnesota attracts the big bets. QB Carson Wentz looked like his old self in place of J.J. McCarthy (high-ankle sprain), who isn’t expected back until Week 7.
The Vikes have a history of resuscitating old quarterbacks, but the bar has been set pretty low for Wentz to outperform McCarthy (20.3 QBR after two games, second-last to Tennessee rookie Cam Ward’s 19.8).
Get Your Book Smarts at OddsTrader
The spread for each of these three high-profile contests is dancing around the 3-point mark, with different online sportsbooks posting different levels of vigorish on their NFL odds for Week 4.
Make sure you get the best deal on juice by signing up at multiple sportsbooks – using the comprehensive reviews here at OddsTrader as your guide to which books deserve your action.
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
