Has home-field advantage become meaningful again? It’s been years since NFL betting enthusiasts could simply attach a generic three points to the home team; we’ve gradually drawn down to 2.5 points, then 2.25, as teams get better at traveling and dealing with adversity. But now the arrow is pointing in the other direction – at least according to former USA Today betting guru Jeff Sagarin, who had home-field advantage pegged at 2.80 points heading into Week 6.
How will this impact the NFL odds Week 7? We are seeing some sharp action land on several home teams, especially home favorites, who are 38-14 SU and 27-24-1 ATS (52.9%) thus far as we go to press. Here’s what this week’s football betting lines have in store for us.
NFL Odds Week 7 at a Glance
Some home faves are better than others. That’s the early takeaway from this week’s marquee matchups on this week’s NFL odds board:
Philadelphia Eagles vs. New York Giants (+7.5)
Sunday, October 19, 01:00 PM EDT
Losing in Week 5 to the Denver Broncos (+4 away) was one thing; doing the same last Thursday night against the lowly New York Giants (+7.5 at home) was quite another.
The Eagles (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS) have now been outscored 143-142 on the season; the Vikings (3-2 SU and ATS) should be in good shape to take advantage after enjoying the bye last week.
The reports we’re looking at show some big money landing on Philly after the defending Super Bowl champs opened as 2.5-point road faves. However, there was some sharp action for Minnesota +3 on the earliest overseas lines.
Carson Wentz will remain under center while J.J. McCarthy (ankle) heals up, but the Vikes could have LB Blake Cashman (hamstring) and maybe even RT Brian O’Neill (knee) back in action this Sunday.
Indianapolis vs. L.A. Chargers (LAC –1.5)
Sunday, October 19, 04:05 PM EDT
Do you believe in Indianapolis (5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS)?
They lead the entire league at press time with a plus-78 point differential, but that’s after playing a very soft schedule, including Sunday’s narrow 31-27 win over an Arizona team (+10 away) with backup Jacoby Brissett at quarterback.
The Chargers (4-2 SU, 2-3-1 ATS) would normally be a value bet here after opening at –1.5, but they’ve got all sorts of injuries heading into Week 7, with their offensive line once again in tatters and QB Justin Herbert running for his life.
They almost lost to the Miami Dolphins last week as 4-point road faves; Indy’s superior defense won’t let Herbert off the hook that easily.
Tampa Bay vs. Detroit (DET –4.5)
Monday, October 20, 07:00 PM EDT
Baker Mayfield for MVP. It could happen.
Mayfield is the main reason the Buccaneers (5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS) lead the NFC, but Tampa Bay’s defense hasn’t kept up its end of the bargain. Then again, Detroit (4-2 SU and ATS) hasn’t been all that stout either, as we saw in Sunday night’s 30-17 loss to Kansas City (–2.5 at home).
Maybe the Lions just need some of that home cooking. They’ve drawn enough early interest to move from –5.5 at the open to –4.5 at press time, although there’s considerably more sharp action on the Over despite the relatively high 53-point total.
What We’ve Covered, and Next Steps
Given the schedule and the early NFL betting reports, we’ve got our eyes on that Buccaneers-Lions Monday Night Football matchup as our top game of the week. That 53-point total has held somewhat firm since the open, but there’s a good chance it’ll climb even higher once the betting public wades in later this week.
Make sure you’re getting the best price available on our live NFL odds Week 7, so make sure you are opening an account and placing a bet today at the reputable sportsbooks.
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