2026 Men’s World Cup Odds: France Favored With 8 Teams Left

Argentina continues to find ways to survive, which makes it hard to completely write off the defending champions. They have not always looked convincing, but they keep advancing, and there is starting to be a team-of-destiny feel around this run. With Switzerland up next, Argentina also has a more favorable quarterfinal matchup than several other contenders.

The concern is that Argentina has looked vulnerable defensively. They have enough attacking quality and experience to beat anyone, but they have not been as complete or dominant as France or Spain. At +400, the odds feel a bit too inflated for a team that still has clear issues at the back, even with a manageable path to the semifinals.

England (+500)

England deserves credit for surviving a difficult knockout test against Mexico at the Azteca Stadium. Winning in that environment, with the altitude and pressure working against them, was an impressive result and showed this team has the composure to grind through tough tournament matches.

The path from here is difficult, though. England likely needs to get through Argentina in the semifinals before potentially facing France or Spain in the final. That is a brutal road, but not an impossible one given England’s balance, depth, and attacking quality. At +500, the price offers decent value for a team that has already proven it can handle uncomfortable knockout-stage situations.

World Cup Sleepers

There is one team in the sleeper tier. It’s Erling Haaland and the Norwegians.

Norway (+1500)

Norway proved it belongs in the contender conversation after knocking out Brazil, one of the biggest statements of the tournament so far. That result showed this team is more than just a surprise quarterfinalist, especially with the attacking quality to punish elite opponents and the confidence that comes from eliminating a traditional powerhouse.

The matchup with England will be difficult, but +1500 is still an enticing number. If Norway can pull another upset, a potential semifinal against Argentina may not be as intimidating as it looked before the tournament, especially with Argentina showing real vulnerability at the back. Norway still has a tough path, but the price is long enough to justify taking a shot.

World Cup Longshots

The final tier includes three major longshots: Morocco, Belgium, and Switzerland.

Morocco (+3000)

Morocco has been one of the best stories of the tournament and continues to look like a team growing in confidence. This is a strong, organized side with enough defensive discipline and attacking quality to make life difficult for any opponent, and its run to the quarterfinals has been fully deserved.

The problem is the path. Morocco would need to get past France in the quarterfinals, likely Spain in the semifinals, and then potentially Argentina or England in the final. That is an extremely demanding route, even for a team playing this well. At +3000, the price is tempting, but the road is simply too difficult to make Morocco a strong futures play.

Belgium (+3300)

Belgium made a major statement by dismantling the United States in the Round of 16, showing it has the attacking quality to punish strong opponents when everything clicks. That performance keeps Belgium alive as a dangerous longshot, especially with the confidence gained from such a convincing knockout win.

The concern is that Belgium was nearly eliminated by Senegal in the previous round, so consistency remains a real question. The path is also brutal. Belgium must get past Spain in the quarterfinals and would likely need to beat France just to reach the final. Like Morocco, Belgium is a talented team at a big price, but the road ahead looks too difficult to make +3300 especially appealing.

Switzerland (+3500)

Switzerland may not be as talented as Morocco or Belgium on paper, but its futures price is actually more interesting because of the bracket. Instead of needing to go through the France-Spain side, Switzerland gets Argentina in the quarterfinals, a team that has looked vulnerable defensively despite continuing to advance.

That makes +3500 a better longshot value than Morocco or Belgium, even if Switzerland is probably the weaker overall team. The path is still difficult, but it is more manageable. If Switzerland can frustrate Argentina and pull off another knockout result, it would likely face England or Norway for a place in the final, which is a far better route than trying to survive France and Spain back-to-back.

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Final Verdict: Bet on Spain

Spain has quietly been the most complete team remaining in the tournament. La Roja has yet to concede a goal through the World Cup, showcasing a disciplined defense that has consistently shut down quality opposition. Combined with a talented attack and outstanding midfield control, Spain looks well-equipped to continue its title push.

Belgium deserves respect after its impressive run to the quarterfinals, highlighted by a dominant victory over the United States. However, the Red Devils also needed to survive a scare against Senegal, and this is a significant step up in competition. Breaking down Spain’s defense is a challenge no opponent has solved yet, and Belgium will need to produce its best performance of the tournament to have a chance.

Spain may not win in dominant fashion, but it has consistently found ways to control matches and limit opponents’ opportunities. With its defensive consistency, tournament experience, and balanced squad, Spain is the side to back as it looks to extend its clean sheet streak and book a place in the World Cup semifinals.