The NFL is a league renowned for its parity, with last place teams turning into division winners over a single offseason. But it all starts with the NFL Draft.
Every year, there are teams picking in the top 10 who have dramatic turnarounds. Just look at the Patriots last year. A year after drafting Drake Maye 3rd overall, the Pats picked offensive tackle Will Campbell 4th overall and went on to the Super Bowl before losing to the Seahawks.
So, which team will be the next Patriots? Which top 10 team should you bet on to win Super Bowl 61? Let’s go through the entire list of 10 teams to see which Super Bowl odds have the best value at the top offshore sportsbooks.
Historical Context: Recent Value Picks to Win The Super Bowl
Before taking a look at this year’s top 10 teams, let’s dive into last year’s to see how the best team performed among teams selecting within the first 10 picks:
- 2025: Patriots (4th overall) – lost in Super Bowl
- 2024: Commanders (2nd overall) – lost in NFC Championship
- 2023: Texans (2nd & 3rd overall) lost in AFC Divisional
- 2022: No playoff teams
- 2021: 49ers (3rd overall) – lost in NFC Championship
As you can see here, there has been at least one top 10 team to make the playoffs and advance one round in four of the last five seasons. While none of these teams won the Super Bowl, that doesn’t matter.
That’s because when you’re taking a top 10 team to win the Super Bowl, you’re getting longshot odds. That means that they don’t have to win it all for you to profit. Taking them creates hedging opportunities.
For example, imagine you had a ticket on the Patriots to win the Super Bowl last year. It would have been around 40-to-1 or longer. Once they got there, you could have just taken Seahawks moneyline to guarantee a profit.
With that in mind, we’re now ready to look at this year’s Top 10 to uncover some value.
2026 NFL Draft Top 10: Which Team Can Win the Super Bowl?
We’ll go through each team, provide their odds to win the Super Bowl, and choose one best bet. Super Bowl betting odds are courtesy of BetOnline.
1st Overall Pick: Las Vegas Raiders (+10000)
The Raiders were an absolute dumpster fire last season, but they’re finally headed on the right track. Hiring former Seahawks offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak as the new head coach is likely to be a great move. He’s an innovative playcaller who can get the most out of his players.
That’s great news for Fernando Mendoza, who is going to be the new franchise quarterback for the Raiders. The team smartly brought in Kirk Cousins, who can hold down the fort under center until Mendoza is ready.
With that said, I don’t see a scenario where the Raiders contend for the Super Bowl this year. This is a rebuilding team that still needs time to build a strong foundation.
2nd Overall Pick: New York Jets (+25000)
Despite picking at No. 2, the Jets are in a worse position than the Raiders. The jury is still out on head coach Aaron Glenn, who had a disappointing first year with the team. There are holes throughout this roster, but luckily they have a ton of draft capital.
Bringing in Geno Smith, who is better than he showed last year, was a smart move to stabilize the quarterback position. But make no mistake, this is a rebuilding team that is unlikely to even finish with a .500 record this season.
Expect the Jets to bring in an edge rusher like David Bailey or Arvell Reese with this pick, as they try to rebuild their defense.
3rd Overall Pick: Arizona Cardinals (+25000)
Just like the Jets, the Cardinals are in a worse spot than the Raiders. The offense has an absolute stud in tight end Trey McBride, but beyond that, you can argue that it’s the worst roster in the NFL.
They brought back Jacoby Brissett and cut ties with Kyler Murray, so there is a major question mark about the future at quarterback there. Brissett is just a stopgap. The team has been linked to Alabama QB Ty Simpson, who they’ll likely have to trade back into the first round to acquire. At this pick, the best move would be to get Bailey or Reese, but there’s a chance they take Jeremiyah Love.
To that end, this is another team to pass on. Even at +25000 odds, you shouldn’t be placing a wager on the Cardinals to win the Super Bowl.
4th Overall Pick: Tennessee Titans (+15000)
The Titans are where things start to get a bit more interesting, since they have Cam Ward at quarterback, last year’s first overall pick. While Ward struggled as a rookie, he has the traits to take a major leap, which gives this team some untapped upside.
I also like the hire of new head coach Robert Saleh, who deserved better for what he did while with the Jets, who continue to establish themselves as a dumpster fire of an organization. We could see the Titans bring in Jeremiyah Love or bolster their defense with Sonny Styles with this pick.
I don’t hate the idea of sprinkling some of your bankroll on the Titans to win the Super Bowl at +15000, but it’s not my top choice among this group.
5th & 10th Overall Picks: New York Giants (+6000)
The Giants are even more intriguing than the Titans, especially after hiring former Super Bowl winner John Harbaugh as their new head coach. The G-Men have a talented second-year quarterback in Jaxson Dart, along with a stud WR1 in Malik Nabers.
Even though they have two top 10 picks, I don’t like that they traded stud defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence, who is a difference-maker on the interior. But they have a chance to hit a home run in the draft and set themselves up for success down the road. I can see them taking Jeremiyah Love or going defense with this pick.
I like the value at +6000 odds, putting them ahead of the Titans on my list of best bets among top 10 teams. However, I think they’re one year away from serious contention.
6th Overall Pick: Cleveland Browns (+25000)
The Browns seem to be always in rebuilding mode, and this year is no different. They have major question marks at quarterback, with reports that they’re turning back to Deshaun Watson this year. However, there’s no signal caller worth taking at 6th overall.
Cleveland has been a popular pick to trade down from No. 6, especially since they have so many holes throughout their roster. I can see them swapping with the Jets, who are loaded with draft capital, and could move up to get a wide receiver.
But as for the Super Bowl, this team has virtually zero chance of even contending. Just like the Cardinals, Jets, and Raiders, you need to completely avoid this one.
7th Overall Pick: Washington Commanders (+5500)
Here we have my best bet to win the Super Bowl among teams picking in the top 10 of the 2026 NFL Draft. The Commanders are one year removed from making the NFC Championship. Yes, everything went wrong last year, including an injury-plagued season from Jayden Daniels. But he’s shown the ability to carry an offense, so don’t sleep on this team.
Washington has been active in free agency, particularly on defense, where they brought in edge rusher Odafe Oweh and linebacker Leo Chenal, among other signings. They have a chance to finish revamping that group by bringing in Sonny Styles or Caleb Downs with this pick. Or, they can upgrade their receiving core with Carnell Tate.
With the coaching upgrades they made at offensive coordinator (David Blough) and defensive coordinator (Daronte Jones), this team can take off in 2026. Blough shot up through the ranks, while Jones comes from Brian Flores’ staff. Look out for the Commanders.
8th Overall Pick: New Orleans Saints (+10000)
The Saints had a strong finish to the season thanks to rookie quarterback Tyler Shough exceeding expectations. This team finally has building blocks in place for a successful run, including an intriguing QB like Shough and a great playcaller at head coach in Kellen Moore.
I think the Saints will use the 8th overall pick on a wide receiver, perhaps Jordyn Tyson out of Arizona State. They need another playmaker to pair with Chris Olave. After signing Travis Etienne in free agency, adding Tyson could be the finishing touch to a revamped offense.
At +10000 odds, there’s a lot of value here. I don’t mind the pick at all. It’s similar to the play with the Titans. But it’s a major longshot, so make sure to put a miniscule number on your bet if you decide to make this one.
9th Overall Pick: Kansas City Chiefs (+1200)
Here we have the obvious choice among teams picking in the top 10 to win the Super Bowl. The Chiefs clearly have the best chance, even with Patrick Mahomes coming off a torn ACL. We can never count out the Chiefs. However, that’s reflected in the +1200 price, which is why we’re passing on this one and going with the Commanders.
We could see Kansas City opt to address the defense with this pick, going with Rueben Bain Jr. or Mansoor Delane. They’ve also been rumored to want to trade up. With two first rounders, this draft is pivotal for retooling the Chiefs for another Super Bowl run.
I won’t fault you if you take them at +1200 odds, I just think it’s slightly overpriced. I’d rather go with more of a longshot here.
Final Verdict: Bet on the Commanders
The problem with market sentiments around the NFL is recency bias. We tend to overlook teams just because of one bad year. That’s what’s happening with the Commanders.
It wasn’t long ago that Jayden Daniels was considered to be the best young quarterback in the NFL, even ahead of Drake Maye. I wouldn’t count out Daniels just because he had a season where he dealt with injuries.
The Commanders have already significantly upgraded their defense and coaching staff. We could see them sign Brandon Aiyuk once the 49ers finally part ways with him. Picking in the top 10 will help by adding another blue-chipper to this roster.
Considering these factors, it’s a great idea to bet on the Commanders to win the Super Bowl at +5500 odds. Act now before the market adjusts. I can see this getting to +4000 before Week 1.
