The NFL Draft is one of the most fun weekends of the year for sports bettors. You can wager on bevy of NFL Draft odds from the No. 1 pick, landing spots, first player taken at every position, to dozens of niche markets that only surface for 72 hours each April. But one market consistently flies under the radar – and that’s where the value lives: NFL Draft trades props.

At top offshore sportsbooks, you can bet the over/under on total first-round trades, trades inside the top 10, and several variations in between. The edge? These markets are so niche that oddsmakers have a harder time pricing them sharply, which opens the door for bettors willing to do the homework. With ten years of historical data and a few clear trends to lean on, the Day 1 trades prop might be the softest line on the entire Draft board.

How Many Trades Will Go Down on Day 1 of the 2026 NFL Draft?

Offshore oddsmakers expect 4-5 trades on the first day of the 2026 NFL draft. Let’s break down the best ways to bet on it.

NFL Draft Day Trades: Recent History

Before taking a closer look at the available NFL Draft trades markets at BetOnline, let’s briefly glance at the recent number of trades that took place in the first round.

2025: Four Trades in First Round

• The Jaguars moved from No. 2 to No. 5 to take wide receiver/cornerback Travis Hunter. The Giants traded up to No. 25 to select quarterback Jaxson Dart. 
• The Falcons came back into the first round to get edge-rusher James Pearce Jr.
• The Eagles moved up to No. 31 to secure linebacker Jihaad Campbell.

2024: Five Trades in First Round

• The Vikings moved to No. 10 to take quarterback J.J. McCarthy.
• The Vikings also traded up to No. 17 to get edge rusher Dallas Turner.
• The Lions traded to No. 24 to take cornerback Terrion Arnold.
• The Chiefs went up to No. 28 to select wide receiver Xavier Worthy.
• The Panthers came back at No. 32 to get wide receiver Xavier Legette.

2023: Six Trades in First Round

• The Texans moved to No. 3 to take edge rusher Will Anderson Jr.
• The Cardinals traded up to No. 6 to take offensive tackle Paris Johnson.
• The Eagles traded to No. 9 to take defensive tackle Jalen Carter.
• The Steelers went up to No. 14 to select offensive tackle Broderick Jones.
• The Giants traded up to No. 24 to take cornerback Deonte Banks.
• The Bills came back at No. 25 to get tight end Dalton Kincaid.

How to Use NFL Draft Day Trade Betting Trends

We’re only going to look at the last three years because it’s important to remember that we can’t rely too much on recent trends. What’s more actionable advice is to acknowledge that every draft class is completely different.

Some are more top-heavy with elite talent in the early first round, enticing teams to potentially trade up. Others, like this year, are considered a weaker class with more depth, which means that teams could be less likely to make trades.

The 2027 NFL Draft class is projected to be much stronger, especially at quarterback, so teams are going to be hesitant to part with picks for next year. To that end, while it’s nice to see the number of draft trades in the first round for each season, it’s more important to treat each draft as an entirely new situation. 

Just because we usually range from four to six trades in Round 1, doesn’t mean this year will fall within that number. In fact, we could see an outlier low in trades this time around, given the state of this year’s draft class.

NFL Draft Day Trade Props: Number of Trades in Round 1

BetOnline currently has the number of trades in Round 1 as follows:

• Over 4.5 (-135)
• Under 4.5 (+105)

I like riding with Under 4.5 here at the appealing +105 price. 

When you look at the first round, you see one locked-in quarterback: Fernando Mendoza. The former Heisman winner is entrenched at No. 1 to the Las Vegas Raiders. 

Aside from Mendoza, the only potential first-round quarterback is Ty Simpson, who is a polarizing prospect because he only made 15 starts at Alabama. Because of that, teams may be hesitant to surrender future draft capital to move up to take him. Quarterbacks tend to be the most common targets in trade-ups, so since it’s a weak class up top, that limits the upside for trades.

While yes, there will be trades in the first. The Jets are loaded with draft picks, so they can move up to take a wide receiver they want. The Cardinals are filled with needs, so they may move down to secure more capital. However, with it being a weak class, 5+ trades in the first feels like a high bar. I’m riding with the Under.

NFL Draft Day Trade Props: Number of Trades in Top 10

BetOnline is listing the number of trades in the top 10 at the current odds:

• Over 1.5 (+150)
• Under 1.5 (-200)

Here’s a spot where I’m willing to lay the juice at -200. I just don’t see two or more trades happening in the top 10.

Unlike last season, there isn’t a blue-chip prospect that a team is enamored with, like the Jaguars were with Travis Hunter. There’s a legit chance that we don’t even see a single trade in the first 10 picks. 

Let’s break it down:

• Pick 1: Raiders are locked into Fernando Mendoza
• Pick 2: Jets are torn between edge rushers Arvell Reese and David Bailey
• Pick 3: Cardinals are the most likely trade down candidate, but who would move up?
• Pick 4: Titans can take running back Jeremiyah Love or wideout Carnell Tate
• Pick 5: Giants can go with Love or linebacker Sonny Styles
• Pick 6: Browns could trade down rather than reach on an offensive lineman here
• Pick 7: Commanders could trade down, but they need higher-end talent on defense
• Pick 8: Saints can add a wideout or just take the best player available
• Pick 9: Chiefs could move up, but for who?
• Pick 10: Giants just traded Dexter Lawrence for this pick

The only viable trade down candidates are the Cardinals, Browns, and Commanders. Do we really think that two of these three are going to make the move? 

That feels unlikely, especially since there’s no elite talent worth giving up additional draft capital to acquire. That makes it likely that Under 1.5 draft trades in the Top 10 is a hit.

How to Bet on the NFL Draft

As with any betting market, you need to have a strategy in place when wagering on the NFL Draft. Below, we’ve compiled a list of tips:

• Shop around to find the best NFL Draft odds
• Practice sound money management where you spread out your exposure
• Closely monitor news reports, but don’t get caught in a trap of chasing recent buzz
• Take a look at live betting markets while watching the draft to see if you find an edge
• Don’t be overconfident on what a team will do, as there are always surprises

When you follow these NFL Draft tips, you’ll be well on your way to being profitable at this market. You will also protect yourself if things go awry, since you won’t be risking too much on a volatile market like this. As always, money management is essential, so keep that in mind.