The 2026 NFL Draft is finally here. It’s a great time for sports bettors, since there’s value across the board. Whether you’re betting on draft position or a team to draft a player, you can pick your spots to be profitable in this market. It gets a little more tricky with quarterbacks, however.
This is one of those drafts where the No. 1 pick is set in stone: Indiana Hoosiers’ Heisman-winning quarterback Fernando Mendoza is penciled in to the Las Vegas Raiders. This market isn’t even available anymore, so it’s a foregone conclusion that Mendoza will be a Raider.
To that end, when betting on 2026 NFL Draft QB props, we have to stick to how many QBs are drafted in Round 1. It’s considered to be a thin class, so there’s only one player who can feasibly crack the top-32 picks. Let’s dive in by exploring the latest NFL Draft odds from BetOnline, which is one of the best spots to bet on the NFL Draft.
Total Quarterbacks in Round 1: Ty Simpson is the One Candidate
The only quarterback besides Mendoza who is generating buzz to go in the first round is Ty Simpson of the Alabama Crimson Tide. This is reflected in the odds at BetOnline with 2 or more QBs being picked in the first round priced at -210 while just one QB going in the first round paying out +160.
Total Quarterbacks in Round 1: Over 1.5 (-210) / Under 1.5 (+160)
Simpson is considered to be an intriguing prospect because he only has 15 college starts under his belt, and he performed well under the bright lights at Alabama. The 6-foot-2, 208-pound quarterback completed 64.5% of his passes for 28 touchdowns and five interceptions. Simpson has drawn comparisons to Mac Jones, who went 15th overall back in the 2021 draft.
While the odds signal that Simpson is likely to go in the first round at Over 1.5 quarterbacks (-210), that’s an expensive price to pay as sports bettors. Do we really want to lay -210 juice on this market?
Let’s take a look at potential candidates to take Simpson:
Rams (13th):
The Rams had been rumored to be interested in Simpson as Matthew Stafford’s successor, but 13th is way too high. That was more of a potential scenario before they traded the 29th overall pick to the Chiefs for Trent McDuffie.
Jets (16th):
This is the landing spot that makes the most sense. The Jets have Geno Smith, so Simpson can sit for a year to learn. But they desperately need a quarterback of the future. They’ve been linked to Simpson throughout the draft process. However, they can roll the dice and wait until pick 33 to take him.
Steelers (21st):
The Steelers are another team that looks like a fit for Simpson. While Aaron Rodgers is likely to return to the team, that’s not confirmed just yet. Plus, they need a young quarterback to build around. They don’t pick again until 53, so if they want Simpson, it has to be here.
Browns (24th):
The Browns are a team that seems to need a new quarterback every year, but that’s where we’re at with this franchise. They could also wait until 39 for Simpson, but it’s extremely unlikely that he’d fall that far.
However, if any of these four teams don’t take Simpson, it would require a team to trade up into the first round for him to be selected there.
With that in mind, there’s some value in taking Under 1.5 quarterbacks in the first round at (+160) odds.
As for other quarterbacks in this class like Jordan Beck or Garrett Nussmeier, neither are projected to have any chance of being taken in the first round. In fact, their odds are not available for this market, which tells you all you need to know.
Draft Position – Ty Simpson: Over 24.5 (-250) / Under 24.5 (+170)
If you think that Simpson will be taken in the first round but don’t feel comfortable laying the -210 juice on Over 1.5 quarterbacks in the first round, you can take him Under 24.5 draft position.
That’s because none of the teams available from 25-32 need a quarterback, so by taking Under 24.5, all you’re doing is removing the outcome of a trade-up into the late 1st round. That makes it feel worth it to take a chance with Under 24.5.
Both the Jets and the Browns have two first-rounders, so it’s unlikely that they’d trade up for a third 1st to take Simpson. That means that if they take him in the first, it’s likely within the top-24 picks, unless they trade down.
Going with Under 24.5 (+170) instead of Over 1.5 quarterbacks (-210) is my preferred way to get exposure to Simpson in the 1st round.
Drafted in Round 1: Ty Simpson (-200)
On the other hand, if you’re totally fine with laying juice on a volatile market like quarterbacks in the 1st round, I’ve got an idea for you.
Instead of taking Over 1.5 quarterbacks in 1st round (-210), you can save 10 cents of juice by going with Simpson (-200).
There’s no need to worry here because there’s no other quarterback besides Simpson who is going in the 1st. That means that if Over 1.5 hits, so does Simpson in the 1st round. Therefore, taking this prop looks like the better move.
Steelers 1st Drafted Player Position: Quarterback (+700)
There’s one last interesting option here. You can take the Steelers to take a quarterback with their first pick at +700 longshot odds.
It’s not worth it to do so for the Jets, Browns, and Rams, since they pick too early to use their highest pick on a quarterback. Who the Rams pick first in the NFL Draft is more likely to be a wide receiver.
But if the Steelers decide to take Simpson, it would be their first pick in the draft. That makes +700 odds look pretty enticing, since they’re a viable landing spot for the Alabama quarterback.
How to Bet on 2026 NFL Draft Quarterback Props
I’ve outlined a couple of strategies you can use on betting on 1st round quarterbacks, but if you’re totally confident that Simpson goes in the first, you can approach it this way:
Let’s say that your full unit is $100.
You can put two units ($200) to win one unit ($100) on Ty Simpson in the 1st round at -200 odds.
Then, you can put 0.63 units ($63) to win one unit ($100) on Simpson Under 24.5 draft position at +160 odds.
This way, if Simpson goes in the 1st but past pick 24, you still profit $37 (0.37 units). If both hit, you win $200 (two units).
The one downside is that if Simpson doesn’t go in the 1st, you would lose 2.63 units, but this feels like an unlikely outcome at this point.
