The NBA is back with two crucial Game 4s.
First, the New York Knicks will try to hold on to their lead at home against the Boston Celtics. The Knicks took the first two games of the series in Boston, but the Celtics punched back with a Game 3 win in New York. Can the trend of the road team winning continue?
Then, the Golden State Warriors will take on the Minnesota Timberwolves. The Warriors hung tough without Steph Curry in Game 3 but the Timberwolves got the victory. Can the Warriors bounce back or will the Timberwolves take a commanding 3-1 lead?
Let’s use the edge provided by OddsTrader’s computer projections to find winning NBA picks at the top-rated sportsbooks.
Picks Summary:
- New York Knicks +6.5 (-110)
- Payton Pritchard Over 14.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-125)
- Josh Hart Under 9.5 Rebounds (-135)
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker Over 8.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-120)
- Rudy Gobert Over 19.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-110)
*All odds from BetMGM (check our BetMGM Review)
Boston Celtics vs. New York Knicks
Monday, May 12, 2025 – 07:30 PM EDT at Madison Square Garden
The OddsTrader’s computer has found an edge to take the New York Knicks at home against the Boston Celtics. The computer has a score projected at 107-102. With the posted line of +6.5, this gives us an expected value of +1.3% on a 55% cover probability.
This is a large enough edge to take advantage of.
Skip the Total, Smash the Props
The total is projected at 209 on a line of 208. This projection is too close to the posted number to find a positive edge. Your expected value on betting this total is -5.8% because each side has a cover probability of either 51% or 49%. As we know, betting on lines of (-110) requires a 52.8% winning percentage in order to break even. Therefore, there is no play on the total.
As usual, the biggest edges are in the player prop market.
First is the Sixth Man of the Year, Payton Pritchard. The line listed for Payton Pritchard’s points, rebounds and assists is 14.5. The computer projects Pritchard at 16.69 points, rebounds and assists. This gives us an expected value of +18.1% on a 74% cover probability, which is a huge edge and the best play that the computer has found for this game.
Another great pick is Under 9.5 rebounds for Josh Hart. The computer only has Hart projected for 7.247 rebounds, which gives us an expected value of +15.8% and a cover probability of 74%. Once again, we are taking advantage of a mispriced line.
The Picks
- New York Knicks +6.5 (-110) at BetMGM
- Payton Pritchard Over 14.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-125) at BetMGM
- Josh Hart Under 9.5 Rebounds (-135) at BetMGM
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Golden State Warriors
Monday, May 12, 2025 – 10:00 PM EDT at Chase Center
Once again, the biggest edges the computer found are in the player prop selections.
The computer has this game projected as a 101-99 Minnesota win. This would project the Golden State Warriors to cover the spread. At a total of 200 points, there is no positive ROI on betting this total. Great job to the books as the computer has agreed that the total should be 200 points.
Timberwolves Props Deliver Value
The best bet for this game is Nickeil Alexander-Walker going over 8.5 points, rebounds and assists. The computer has him projected at 14.11 points, rebounds and assists, giving us an expected value of +36.5% and a 91% cover probability.
If you only make one bet today, this is the best bet that the computer has found on the whole slate. The Timberwolves have needed Alexander-Walker’s contributions, so it makes sense that he will play more minutes than usual. The extra usage for Alexander-Walker compared to the regular season is why the computer selected this. Also, he has gone over this number in 11 of the last 15 games he’s played.
The final play the computer found for us is Rudy Gobert going over 19.5 points, rebounds and assists.
The computer has Gobert projected at 24.06 which gives us an expected value of +23.6% on a 76% cover probability. Gobert has been dominant against the Warriors as he has taken advantage of the Warriors’ smaller lineups. He is simply too tall and athletic for the Warriors to contain. Take Rudy Gobert’s Over 19.5 points, rebounds and assists.
The Picks
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker Over 8.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-120) at BetMGM
- Rudy Gobert Over 19.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-110) at BetMGM
*21+ Seek help with a gambling addiction at 1-800-Gambler
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
