The NFL’s final 4 teams for the Conference Championship Games are set, and they just so happen to include the teams who allowed the fewest points this season: Ravens (280), Chiefs (294), and 49ers (298).
The Lions are way down at No. 23 with 395 points allowed, so you can see why that game has twice the spread of the AFC clash that’s up first this weekend.
But can we get some higher-scoring games with the level of offenses and quarterbacks involved here? We studied the OddsTrader computer picks and found 3 of our favorite bets that you can find at top-rated sportsbooks for Championship Sunday.
Picks Summary
- Chiefs-Ravens Over 44.5 Points (-110) at Bet365
- Lions-49ers Over 51 Points (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Lions +7 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Will Mahomes Light Up the Ravens Again?
We were expecting to get Chiefs at Ravens in the 2019 AFC Championship Game as this might have been the top AFC rivalry for the 2020s with Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson. But the Ravens lost to the Titans, the Chiefs won the Super Bowl, and things have only built from there with the Ravens just now getting back into things with a No. 1 seed and likely 2nd MVP for Jackson.
But this is a pivotal game with the Chiefs eyeing a repeat. They are a 3.5-point underdog, but Mahomes is now 8-3 SU as an underdog in his career (9-1-1 ATS). The total is 44.5 points for the teams that allowed the fewest points in the league. Can we get a little shootout going here that hits the over?
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Baltimore Ravens
Sunday, January 28, 2024 – 03:00 PM ET at M&T Bank Stadium
Why the Chiefs Can Crack the Baltimore Defense
While this hasn’t been the greatest offensive season for the Chiefs, they seem to be putting things together at the right time in the playoffs. The Chiefs have scored at least 25 points in Mahomes’ last 3 starts, and they found their big plays against the Bills, hitting them for 8 gains of at least 20 yards in that one.
The concerns over Mahomes playing a road playoff game were never justified. He has been statistically better on the road in his career. Last season, the Chiefs scored 30 points in 9 games, and 8 of those games were away from Kansas City. Things have not been as pronounced this season, but 4-of-6 games where the Chiefs scored at least 27 points were on the road.
Mahomes’ Potential
Mahomes has led the Chiefs to at least 23 points in 14-of-15 playoff games he started and finished. He has not thrown an interception in the playoffs since the 2021 AFC Championship Game. He hasn’t taken any sacks in 4 of the last 5 playoff games either.
Mahomes also has a fantastic history against Baltimore, going 3-1 against them with 12 touchdowns, 2 interceptions, and he’s led the Chiefs to at least 27 points in every game, including games of 34 and 35 points in Baltimore.
Mahomes has not played the Ravens since 2021 and this is arguably their best defense in over a decade. But he is not unfamiliar with facing John Harbaugh’s Ravens. Baltimore is only allowing 16.5 points per game, but how many offenses has it faced that can really compare to what the Chiefs do under Andy Reid and Mahomes? The closest comparison might be the Rams, who scored 31 points in Baltimore in Week 14.
Joe Burrow was not healthy for either matchup with the Ravens this year, and the Bengals still found their way to 20 points in those games. Mahomes will find a way to get a respectable number of points for the Chiefs. A win is a different story.
Why the Ravens Can Score on Kansas City
The Chiefs have rebranded themselves as a great defensive team this season. It started Week 1 when they held the Lions, a very good offense, to just 14 points. They would have probably won that game too if Kadarius Toney hadn’t turned a completion into a pick-6, among other drops.
Green Bay is the only team to surpass 24 points against these Chiefs, and the Packers finished with 27 points in Week 13. The Chiefs also allowed a season-high 382 yards of offense that night, so no one has cracked 400 yards or 30 points yet this season.
The Buffalo Game
But Buffalo came close last week. Through 3 quarters, the Bills scored 24 points while only having the ball 5 times. They were also averaging a stunning 60 yards per drive, killing the Chiefs with a ground attack and short-passing game that shrunk the game and saw the Bills control the ball for 37 minutes. The defense just didn’t hold up its end of the bargain against Mahomes.
Neither did kicker Tyler Bass, who would have tied the season high against the Chiefs with 27 points had he made a 44-yard field goal. But the Ravens have to like what they saw there as they can run the ball better than Buffalo with both their running backs and especially Lamar Jackson, who had 100 yards and 2 touchdowns against the Texans last week. His scrambles can be deadly and extend drives on 3rd-and-long. Jackson also rushed for over 100 yards and 2 touchdowns the last time he faced the Chiefs in 2021.
Jackson has struggled as a passer with the Chiefs in his career, but his running and overall contributions still led to Baltimore scoring at least 20 points in all 4 matchups.
Baltimore’s Weapons
The Ravens also could get tight end Mark Andrews back after he was close to returning this past weekend. They still have Isaiah Likely at tight end too, and he has been playing very well.
And if this game comes down to a field goal, Justin Tucker is the best to ever do it. He won’t miss like Tyler Bass did. You also cannot discount the Chiefs’ ball security issues leading to turnovers and short fields for the Ravens, who had the best starting field position this year.
The Pick
The Chiefs proved last week they could score on the road in the playoffs and win a big game. The Ravens proved they can shake off a slow start and score 34 points in a playoff game against Houston. Both teams come in hot to this one with maybe the best quarterbacks in the league right now, so there is a chance for a great game here with plenty of points despite the rankings of these defenses.
The first 4 meetings between Mahomes and Jackson produced 51, 61, 54, and 71 points. The Chiefs are built differently this time, but they still have that championship confidence in games like this. I was going to say another 27-24 game, but the computer score had it at 25-23. That’s still good enough for the over for your NFL picks.
Score Prediction: Ravens 25 – Chiefs 23
NFL Pick: Over 44.5 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
The Goff-Purdy Shootout We Didn’t Expect to Get
Either Jared Goff is going to start his 2nd Super Bowl for his 2nd team, or Brock Purdy is going to the Super Bowl in his 2nd season. It may not have been the most obvious NFC Championship Game pick this year, but these are the teams playing the best down the stretch after Philadelphia and Dallas imploded.
The 49ers are a 7-point home favorite with a total of 51 points. We have NFL picks for both the spread and total.
Detroit Lions vs. San Francisco 49ers
Sunday, January 28, 2024 – 06:30 PM ET at Levi’s Stadium
Lions: Still Hungry for Kneecaps
It may only be fitting that Dan Campbell started his career in Detroit against Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers to start the 2021 season. Three years later, he has the Lions as close as they’ve ever been to a Super Bowl after winning back-to-back home playoff games.
But this is going to take their best effort as they are well behind the field defensively this weekend. They can score with the best of teams, but they are going to have to play out of their minds defensively to hang with the 49ers, who can still boast a ridiculous offense even if Deebo Samuel ends up sidelined with a shoulder injury.
The 49ers still have All-Pros at various positions, and the Lions will have to make sure they are utilizing every underdog strategy they can with going for it on 4th down to maybe even a fake punt or some trickery on special teams to steal a possession or score.
Watch Out for Interceptions
Jared Goff and Brock Purdy are both known for throwing risky passes to the defense, so that battle of who can have more interceptions dropped is one to watch here. But Goff has done a very good job this postseason of getting the ball to his playmakers, and rookie Jahmyr Gibbs has been pulling away as the lead back over David Montgomery in recent weeks.
The Lions have a great No. 1 receiver in Amon-Ra St. Brown, who also made his rookie debut when these teams last played in 2021. He has developed into an All-Pro weapon, and the Lions struck gold in the draft with rookie tight end Sam LaPorta, who led the team in catches last week against Tampa Bay.
But the Lions are going to have to deliver on the road after playing indoors at home these last 2 weeks. This is a stronger defense too, though the Lions have hung tough with the Cowboys on the road, and the Ravens and Packers recently showed some cracks in this San Francisco defense that you could argue was more dominant in 2019 and 2022.
49ers: Won After Facing Adversity
The 49ers did a few things they haven’t done all year last week against Green Bay. They had a game-winning drive, they won without scoring 27 points, Purdy threw a season-high 39 passes, and they overcame an injury on the opening drive to Deebo Samuel.
In the past, this team has folded when offensive stars were injured like in the losses against the Browns and Vikings. They also usually don’t win the tight games where they have to come back as this was only the 2nd time in Kyle Shanahan’s career that his offense came back from a 7-point deficit in the 4th quarter to win a game.
But it was a good way to show the 49ers can beat adversity in the playoffs. The Packers also had some big plays that did not turn into points thanks to the defense getting a stop or lucking out that the kicker missed the field goal. But the 49ers have a defense that can rattle Jared Goff on the road in this one.
The Running Game
The running game remains stellar with Christian McCaffrey, who scored another 2 touchdowns against Green Bay. George Kittle also found the end zone, so they have the weapons to make up for any Deebo absence. Jauan Jennings also stepped up and made some of the biggest catches for Purdy in that game.
The 49ers have been bitten by some bad luck in these title games under Shanahan. They dropped an interception against Matthew Stafford in 2021 when they blew a 10-point lead in the 4th quarter against the Rams. Obviously, Purdy’s elbow injury on the opening drive last year in Philadelphia ruined that game from the start. They had no chance without a quarterback who could throw after 4th-string quarterback Josh Johnson suffered a concussion.
But the 49ers come in relatively healthy as the home team this time. It usually comes down to turnovers for them. When they avoid them, they’re the best team in the league.
The Total Pick
The over is 12-7 (63.2%) in Detroit games this year, the 3rd-highest rate in the league. Since Campbell has been coaching the Lions (2021), the over in Detroit games is 29-24 (54.7%), the 2nd-highest rate in the league.
Since Purdy took over in 2022, the over is 9-3-1 in San Francisco games where the 49ers are favored by 4-to-10 points.
Don’t expect it to be 41-33 like the last time they met, but the 49ers should find a lot of open space with their receivers against this defense. Look for a sharper performance from Purdy and for the 49ers to get around 30 points.
But the Lions are absolutely capable of 21 points in this game. Their offense is arguably more diverse and complete than what the Packers had, and the Packers should have scored at least 24 points in that game last week. They left a lot on the field in the red zone, an area where Detroit excels (3rd-highest touchdown rate).
We’ll take the over to hit on a late touchdown that could prove very significant for the total and spread in this matchup.
NFL Pick: Over 51 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
The Spread Pick
Does Detroit have another miracle left? The Lions are 15-4 ATS (78.9%) as an underdog of at least 4 points under Campbell. That includes 4 straight covers in national games where people counted the Lions out:
- Thanksgiving 2022 vs. Buffalo (+9.5): Lost 28-25 on a last-second field goal
- Week 18, 2022 at Green Bay (+5): Won 20-16 to keep the Packers out of the playoffs
- Week 1, 2023 at Kansas City (+4): Won 21-20 to shock the Chiefs on opening night
- Week 17, 2023 at Dallas (+5): Lost 20-19 after a controversial finish on a 2-point conversion penalty
Since 2017, Shanahan is 18-22-1 ATS (45.1%) as a favorite of 4-to-10 points, including a 1-7 record in 2023.
The backdoor is always open in a game like this, but you have to believe Campbell’s aggression and his team’s resilient play and ability to score can keep this close enough to where it’s not another San Francisco blowout.
Score Prediction: 49ers 30 – Lions 24
NFL Pick: Lions +7 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
