The NFL season is here. Fans are convinced their team is playoff-bound (well, maybe not Tennessee fans). Bettors are already counting their Week 1 winnings because they know their picks are LOCKS!
Sportsbooks, meanwhile, eagerly await the betting public’s confidence, especially on those “Never Lose” parlays. The NFL picks for week 1 always deliver excitement, and we’re inevitably left amazed — for better or worse — by the results.
Saddle up, let’s ride!
What To Expect From Week 1
The general thinking is that Week 1 in the NFL is easier than college football because we know more about the teams, as they played in August. Then you start watching the speed difference between September NFL football vs. August, and you go into your drawer and pull out a rosary or your lucky team pin and start hoping you didn’t bet too much on Week 1.
Our focus for the start of the season is to find those underdogs who might not only cover the spread but win outright. Will we be correct? Of course, nobody’s lost a game yet. What could go wrong? Release the hounds!
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New York Jets (+2.5)
All the news out of Pittsburgh is super positive. Aaron Rodgers is spinning the ball like 10 years ago, the accuracy is impeccable, and Steelers fans are going to love A-Rod getting them back in the playoffs.
Up north, Jets fans are going to love the big-play capabilities of Justin Fields as a passer and runner. The Flyboys offense will have a completely different rhythm, getting the ball to RB Breece Hall in various ways, while finding Garrett Wilson on slant or go routes.
Look for the Jets to force a 4th quarter turnover, which gives them the lead, and they hold on for a win.
Expert Pick: Jets +2.5 (-105) at Caesars
New York Giants vs. Washington Commanders (-6)
The New York Giants are coming off a dismal year at 3-14. They’ve brought an aging Russell Wilson, who Pittsburgh didn’t want back. To start the week, the Giants have slid from +7 to +6 road underdogs after an impressive 3-0 preseason, while Washington was 0-3.
The Commanders are expected to return to the playoffs and have another good run. Washington signed numerous 30-something players and entered this campaign with the oldest roster in the league. Is that good?
Last year, the lowly Giants lost by three and five points to Washington, proving that divisional games matter, often bringing out a better effort from the underdog. The best betting advice is to see if Washington goes back up to -6.5 or better, which increases the value of the visitor.
Nonetheless, sticking with the G-Men to lose by four or fewer points.
Expert Pick: Giants +6 (-110) at Caesars
Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears (+1.5)
Sam Darnold easily had the best year of his NFL career in the land of 10,000 lakes. It didn’t prevent Minnesota from moving on from Darold, trusting their decision of having J.J. McCarthy as their guy, with a year to see and watch how the NFL works.
Caleb Williams did not have the luxury in Chicago, thrown into the vast NFL ocean to sink or swim, and the best one can say is that Williams did not drown. It was tough for the former #1 pick in the draft.
For presumably Williams’ benefit, new coach Ben Johnson has stated that one of his jobs is to develop Williams to become the player he can be.
Bears fans are buying into the thinking, and their team was flipped from a -1.5 point home favorite to a –1.5 underdog. With the Vikes 2-7 ATS as MNF road faves, Chicago pulls this one out late.
Expert Pick: Bears +1.5 (-110) at Caesars
When To Place Football Bets
For the NFL picks in week 1, we are backing a trio of underdogs.
You always want the maximum value on your bets. That means determining your strongest wagers are early in the week or within the last 24 hours before the contest.
Look at the lines early at our reviewed sportsbooks to get your best odds.
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