The NFL’s 2023 regular season is ending this weekend, but not before a Saturday doubleheader of key games for the AFC wild-card race. The Pittsburgh Steelers desperately need a win against the Baltimore Ravens, which would be a sweep of the No. 1 seed, and the Colts are hoping to sweep C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans to finish 10-7 and possibly punch their ticket to the playoffs.
We chose our favorite bet for both games on Saturday in Week 18, and you can always find them at the top-rated sportsbooks.
Picks Summary
- Steelers-Ravens Under 36.5 Points (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Texans-Colts Under 47 Points (-110) at Bet365
Ravens vs. Steelers Means Low Scoring, Right?
Baltimore vs. Pittsburgh is arguably the best rivalry in the NFL in the 21st century. No matter who is playing, especially at quarterback, they always seem to play a hard-fought, physical game that goes down to the wire. The Steelers even managed to beat the Ravens this year despite a statistical advantage in Baltimore’s favor both on the year and even in that game with the yardage.
But instead of seeing if Lamar Jackson can notch just his 2nd win of his career against Pittsburgh, we may see Tyler Huntley and other key backups with the No. 1 seed locked up for Baltimore. We will also see Mason Rudolph start his 3rd game in a row for Kenny Pickett, who is now the backup.
Does that favor the under or not? The Steelers are a 4-point road favorite with a total of 36.5 points after the last matchup ended 17-10. We are looking at the under.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens
Saturday, January 06, 2024 – 04:30 PM ET at M&T Bank Stadium
Week 5 Recap: Steelers 17, Ravens 10
This game was a bit insane in that Baltimore did not score in the final 42 minutes after taking a 10-0 lead. This happened despite numerous open receivers, but the Ravens had some bad drops in that game from the receivers.
But the Steelers held Baltimore scoreless on 9 straight drives to end it, and they also blocked a punt for a safety. Pittsburgh was only sitting on 3 points into the 4th quarter before that safety, and it also had a field goal drive that lost 6 yards following a late fumble by Lamar Jackson, or else this one could have ended 14-10 instead of 17-10.
Either way, the Ravens have scored at least 19 points in every game this season except that one. But with backups potentially playing, it may not be a good opportunity for many points to be scored, especially with the way these teams play each other so physically.
Mason Rudolph vs. Tyler Huntley?
We know the Steelers are going with Mason Rudolph at quarterback with Kenny Pickett relegated to backup again. The Steelers have dropped 30 points in back-to-back games with Rudolph playing well, and he also leaned on a strong run game in Seattle last week as the Steelers amassed 468 yards of offense, their most in any game in the last 3 seasons.
But even if the Ravens choose to rest starters like injured safety Kyle Hamilton, a team cannot rest every quality player on the roster. It’s just not possible with 53 players available and at least 11 needed on defense every snap. Even starters don’t play 100% of snaps so the Ravens are going to have to dress and play some very notable players in this game.
The Steelers and Ravens usually don’t score a lot of points against each other as is, and they are very used to playing each other with one or both teams starting a backup quarterback. In fact, Jackson has been in the league 6 years and has only 1 win against Pittsburgh due to how many times he has missed games against them.
Tyler Huntley is the backup to Jackson and could get the start. He has been held under 20 points in 8-of-9 career starts, including 3 games against the Steelers that ended 16-14, 16-13, and 16-3 in the last 2 years.
Even with how well Rudolph has played, the Ravens are the No. 1 defense in so many categories, including points allowed, turnovers forced, and net yards per pass allowed. This is not the kind of defense that should allow 200 rushing yards or for George Pickens to have another monster game.
The Pick
The players on the field may look different, but it’s still Pittsburgh vs. Baltimore, and expectations should be for a low-scoring game. Rudolph could have a rough outing that shows why he was the 3rd-string quarterback all along. T.J. Watt could make a final push for Defensive Player of the Year by attacking this backup quarterback situation.
We’ll take our chances that this won’t be a shootout or a chance for the Ravens to cover the over by themselves like they did against Miami last week. This is not the week for that with the No. 1 seed locked up.
NFL Pick: Under 36.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Trust DeMeco Ryans or Shane Steichen?
When the Colts beat the Texans 31-21 in Week 2, no one probably imagined a Week 18 game with the teams sitting on 9-7 records (same as Jacksonville) and challenging for the AFC South and playoffs. But here we are after excellent jobs by rookie coaches Shane Steichen and DeMeco Ryans.
But there has been more focus on the job done by Houston rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud, the favorite to win Offensive Rookie of the Year. He had a concussion recently that has knocked him off his game, but he’s back and ready for the playoff push.
The Texans are a 1-point road favorite with a total of 47 points. Could we see an under in a game that should have a playoff atmosphere?
Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts
Saturday, January 06, 2024 – 08:15 PM ET at Lucas Oil Stadium
Why the Texans May Not Score Many Points
The Texans have already exceeded expectations by winning 9 games, guaranteeing a winning record this year. Making the playoffs would be extra sweet, but we can point to some flaws with the team that shows they still have a lot of development to do.
Houston has protected the ball very well, tied for a league-low 14 giveaways this year. But they are only 14th in scoring, 13th in first downs, 26th in rushing yards per carry, 19th on 3rd down, and 17th in the red zone. Numbers that blow away where the Texans were in 2021-22, but this is still not a consistent, top-10 offense just yet.
Worse, the Texans have had some injuries that have hurt them recently. They lost Tank Dell for the year, and he was an integral part of this offense as the slot receiver. C.J. Stroud only came back last week from a concussion, and he really hasn’t had a dominant game since November. He had decent stats against the Colts in Week 2’s 31-20 loss, but a lot of the production came in the 2nd half after the Texans were down big.
But perhaps the main reason to worry about Houston on the road in this spot is the offensive line. In Week 2, the Colts were all over Stroud, sacking him 6 times and pressuring him 19 times total. It was the worst pass protection the Texans had all season, and they also had a season-low 52 rushing yards, adding another layer to how badly they were beat in the trenches.
The Colts have done a good job in their last few home games, holding down the run against the Raiders and Steelers. Houston has only scored more than 22 points once in its last 7 games and that was last week against the Titans, a 26-3 win that included a fumble return touchdown by the defense.
As long as Gardner Minshew and the Colts are protecting the ball from turnovers like that, they should be good at not giving the Texans instant scoring opportunities.
Why the Colts May Not Score Many Points
One of the most impressive aspects of this Indianapolis season is the way Steichen has the team still ranked 10th in scoring despite all the injuries on offense. The Colts scored at least 20 points in each of their first 9 games this season, which was the longest streak in the league in 2023.
Having said that, things haven’t been as consistent in the 2nd half of the season. Even when the Colts beat Carolina 27-13 in Week 9, they got to 20 points that day thanks to a pair of defensive interception return scores. The offense only had 198 yards.
We have seen the Colts held to 10 points against the Patriots in Germany, 14 points in Cincinnati, and 10 points in Atlanta. Granted, they have scored at least 21 points in every home game this year, but just scoring 21-to-27 points in this game may not help push it over if the defense has a respectable performance in limiting Houston.
If you look at the 31-21 game these teams played in Week 2, the Colts got up 14-0 early thanks to a short field from a turnover, then they coasted the rest of the game while Houston added some hollow yardage later. It wasn’t a back-and-forth kind of game with 52 points by any means.
The Pick
With the way the Colts have been defending better at home since the bye week, the injuries to the Houston offense, and what should be a more defensive approach given the stakes here, we are going to back the under.
NFL Pick: Under 47 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
