The NFL’s Week 18 schedule has a ton of important division games to decide the final playoff positions. The NFC South is still up in the air, and we have picks for both games in that division. We also have the Seahawks’ playoff chances on life support in Arizona, a team that pulled off a mighty fine upset in Philadelphia last week.
We picked through the OddsTrader computer picks and found 3 of our favorite bets that you can find at top-rated sportsbooks for Week 18.
Picks Summary
- Buccaneers -5.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Cardinals +3 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Falcons-Saints Over 41.5 Points (-110) at Bet365
Tampa Bay’s Second Chance
It would be an understatement to say the Buccaneers fell flat in their attempt to clinch the NFC South at home last week. They were down 20-0 nearly halfway through the final quarter to the Saints before scoring some points in garbage time.
But the good news is the Buccaneers get another crack at it in Week 18. They simply have to beat the Carolina Panthers on the road, and they win the NFC South. No other help necessary. The Panthers have not taken a snap with a 4th-quarter lead all season, and they just lost 26-0 to the Jaguars without Trevor Lawrence.
The Buccaneers are a 5.5-point road favorite with a total of 37.5 points. We are looking at the spread.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Carolina Panthers
Sunday, January 07, 2024 – 01:00 PM ET at Bank of America Stadium
Week 13 Recap: Buccaneers 21, Panthers 18
This score was a little close for comfort last time, but it could have been an easy cover if the Buccaneers stepped up on 1 more play. The Panthers were only 3-for-15 on 3rd down that day, and they finished with 282 yards. Rookie Bryce Young completed 15-of-31 passes for 178 yards and took 4 sacks in addition to throwing an interception.
But Young was able to convert a 4th-and-6 with just over 6 minutes left, and that led to a touchdown and 2-point conversion to make it a 21-18 game instead of a 21-10 game where the Bucs could have ran out the clock.
That one failure to get a stop was costly as far as the spread went that day. But Tampa definitely did not dominate on offense with Baker Mayfield also completing under 50% of his passes (14-of-29) for 202 yards. But at least he was only sacked once, and Rachaad White grinded away for 84 yards on the ground.
Mike Evans was absolutely dominant, with 162 yards and a touchdown. He had 207 yards against the Panthers last season in the game that clinched the division for Tampa.
Baker on the Road
While Mayfield is dealing with a rib injury, he is expected to play this week, so that is a good sign for how serious (or not) the injury is. You might think a road game spells trouble for him, but he actually has better road numbers this season:
- Baker at home: 63.3% complete, 10 TD, 7 INT, 7.64 YPA, 88.2 passer rating
- Baker on road: 65.6% complete, 18 TD, 3 INT, 7.00 YPA, 103.5 passer rating
The longer passes to Evans hit at home more frequently, but Baker’s more efficient and has a great touchdown-to-interception ratio in road games this season. He has thrown multiple touchdowns in 7-of-8 road games this year.
Throw in the improved running game with White taking on a mediocre run defense, and this offense has a good chance to match or improve on what it scored last time against this defense.
The Pick
Carolina has not scored 10 points in 3-of-4 games going into Sunday. The Panthers have topped 17 points at home just once all year. This has been a miserable season, with the team only pulling out 2 wins on a last-second field goal.
The Buccaneers are the better team, have a lot more to play for, and they should make up for last week’s egg with a better job here and a cover to take home the division title.
Score Prediction: Buccaneers 24 – Panthers 15
NFL Pick: Buccaneers -5.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Arizona Finishes on a Hot Streak?
The Arizona Cardinals pulled off one of the biggest upsets and comebacks of the season in Philadelphia last week. The offense was on fire with 4 straight touchdown drives after halftime. Can Kyler Murray finish the season on a high note and make the team consider keeping him as their franchise quarterback for 2024 and beyond?
He gets a crack at the Seahawks, who allowed 30 points to an offense led by Mason Rudolph of the Steelers. The Seahawks are a 3-point road favorite but we think the underdog has value again.
Seattle Seahawks vs. Arizona Cardinals
Sunday, January 07, 2024 – 01:00 PM ET at State Farm Stadium
Arizona’s Rushing Offense vs. Seattle’s Defense
The Cardinals are at their best when they can get the run game going with James Conner, and it doesn’t hurt when Kyler Murray is effectively scrambling. But Conner powered the upset in Philly with 128 of the team’s 221 rushing yards. The Cardinals looked unstoppable in the 2nd half.
When these teams met in Week 7, the Cardinals were without Murray and Conner. They still had Joshua Dobbs at quarterback, and Emari Demercado led the team with 58 rushing yards on 13 carries. The Seahawks won 20-10 despite finishing minus-3 in the turnover department.
With the right quarterback and running back in the game for Arizona, this offense can have more success this time around. They also have developed a young tight end in Trey McBride who has flourished in the 2nd half of the season, his 2nd in the NFL.
The Seahawks are 30th against the run and were just gashed by Pittsburgh’s duo of Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. The Cardinals can do something similar with their weapons. They should be able to score at least 20 points this time around.
Geno Smith’s 2023 Season
The Seahawks with Geno Smith at quarterback are 3-0 against Arizona since 2022, and each win was by exactly 10 points. Smith’s numbers have been solid in those games (4 touchdowns, 2 interceptions), but his overall numbers are down this year, as he’s only thrown 18 touchdowns after having 30 in 2022.
Despite a 2-4 record in his last 6 starts, Smith’s numbers are probably better than you’d expect during this stretch, which includes time off for injury. He’s thrown 9 touchdowns to 2 interceptions and has a 97.5 passer rating.
But Seattle has not played well enough to get well ahead of any team. In fact, Seattle has not won a game by more than 4 points since the 20-10 win over Arizona in Week 7.
The Pick
Seattle has gone 9 straight games without winning by more than 3 points. Rookie coach Jonathan Gannon has the Cardinals playing well down the stretch. Murray is looking for one last chance to showcase he belongs in Arizona in 2024. We’ll trust the home team to get it done and cover the spread, if not win outright. But the computer score definitely sees another tight one for Pete Carroll’s group.
Score Prediction: Seahawks 23 – Cardinals 21
NFL Pick: Cardinals +3 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Final Playoff Push for Saints and Falcons
Well, this was thought to be the game that would decide the NFC South in Week 18, but it turns out the Tampa Bay Buccaneers just have to beat the Panthers to do that. But should the Bucs slip, this becomes the real title game and the Saints come in feeling confident after last week’s impressive win in Tampa.
The Saints are a 3.5-point home favorite with a total of 41.5 points. While the quarterback situation is up in the air for Atlanta (again), we think the over has value.
Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints
Sunday, January 07, 2024 – 01:00 PM ET at Caesars Superdome
Derek Carr Finishing Well
The experiment of Derek Carr in New Orleans has produced mixed results to this point, which is why the team is fittingly 8-8 and in this difficult position in Week 18. The offense is 14th in points and 16th in yards, or almost perfectly mediocre.
But Carr has been at his best this year in December. During those 5 games, Carr has completed 73.7% of his passes for 11 touchdowns and 3 interceptions with a 110.2 passer rating. The Saints have scored at least 22 points in each of the last 5 games.
This run started right after Carr and the Saints lost 24-15 in Atlanta, a game where he threw for 304 yards, but he couldn’t finish a single drive for a touchdown. The Saints settled for 6 field goal attempts, missing the final kick to boot.
But the good news is the Saints moved the ball at least 40 yards on 8-of-9 drives that day. If they can just finish more drives with touchdowns, they have a real chance to drop 24-to-31 points in this matchup. The Falcons just gave up 37 points in Chicago and have struggled in several games this year when facing unheralded quarterbacks like Josh Dobbs (Vikings), Will Levis in his NFL debut (Titans), and Kyler Murray’s first game in 11 months (Cardinals).
Carr doing well at home to close out this season against this defense would not be a big surprise.
Can the Falcons Score 20 Points?
The Falcons have a question mark at quarterback after Taylor Heinicke was banged up and struggled mightily in Chicago last week. He threw 3 interceptions and completed just 10-of-29 passes. He was replaced by Desmond Ridder, who also threw a pick.
But when these teams met in late November, it was the Falcons who put together touchdown drives of 78 and 95 yards while the Saints were busy kicking all those field goals. The Falcons were able to run the ball very well that day with a season-high 228 rushing yards.
Atlanta will enjoy being indoors this week after struggling in the cold and flurries in Chicago last week. Younghoe Koo should get back to making field goals he missed in Chicago’s weather. But the Falcons need to get back to basics and utilize Bijan Robinson and Kyle Pitts to attack this defense that Arthur Smith as a coach has seen 5 times since 2021.
This is a chance for the Falcons to build on the last meeting’s success and finish this season on an offensive high note.
The Pick
It has not been happening as often lately, but these teams started the season with some razor-thin margins in their games. The Saints’ first 3 games were decided by a total of 5 points. The Falcons have played in 6 games decided by 1-to-3 points this year.
The computer score is so tight that we didn’t trust the spread as much as we like to see the total go over this time. Their last matchup had 39 points despite the teams moving the ball at least 40 yards on 13 of their 17 drives. They can get over 41.5 points this time for your NFL picks.
Score Prediction: Saints 22 – Falcons 21
NFL Pick: Over 41.5 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
