The NFL is only down to a trio of 3-0 teams (49ers, Dolphins, and Eagles). In Week 4, the Dolphins are involved in the Game of the Week in Buffalo, while the 49ers and Eagles are big favorites against division rivals.
But there are also 4 teams sitting at 0-3, and incredibly, they are in action against each other this week with the Broncos taking on the Bears and the Panthers taking on the Vikings. Who is the best bet to avoid 0-4?
We make our top picks for Week 4 below, and you can always find these game props at the best sportsbooks.
Picks Summary
- Dolphins Over 25.5 Points (-115) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Titans Under 20.5 Points (-105) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
- Panthers 4th Quarter ML (+130) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills
Sunday, October 1, 2023 – 01:00 PM EDT at Highmark Stadium
What Will Dolphins Have for an Encore After Scoring 70 Points?
The AFC East lead is on the line as the Buffalo Bills host the Miami Dolphins, who are fresh off a stunning 70-20 win over Denver. But the Bills also come in hot with a 75-13 score over their last 2 games. This is easily the best game of the first 4 weeks of the season.
The Dolphins are a 2.5-point road underdog with a total of 53.5 points. We are looking at Miami’s team scoring (over/under 25.5 points).
What’s Next After 70 Points?
The Dolphins were truly historic in Week 3 against Denver. With its speed, Miami became the 4th team in NFL history (first since 1966) to score 70 points in a game. But it was the first time ever that an NFL team scored 70 points on offense as those other teams all had return touchdowns from other units.
Miami also had 726 yards of offense, which was only 9 yards shy of the NFL record for a game. Miami had 376 passing yards and 350 rushing yards, which is only the 2nd time an offense has ever had over 300 passing yards and 300 rushing yards in a game.
The Dolphins also did this without Jaylen Waddle, who is in the conversation for the best No. 2 wide receiver in the NFL. He had a concussion and could return for this big matchup.
The 1950 Rams still hold a seemingly unbreakable record for most points in a 2-game span with 135 as they scored 70 and 65 in consecutive games. But the Dolphins will try their best against a tough Buffalo team.
The Bills Have Issues with Mike McDaniel’s Team
These division rivals met 3 times last year and it was always a grind for the Bills, who were always favored as they are again this week. But the Dolphins won the first matchup, 21-19, in the Miami heat as the Bills melted down at the end of each half.
The Week 15 rematch was in Buffalo’s cold and snow, but the warm-weather Dolphins looked ready to travel and brought their offense to score 29 points in another tight loss as the Bills scored a last-second field goal.
Buffalo was favored to win by 2 touchdowns in the wild card round thanks to Miami having to start 3rd-string rookie quarterback Skylar Thompson. However, the Bills had one of their problematic days with turnovers, and despite Thompson’s flaws, the Dolphins scored 31 points and were close in a 34-31 loss.
The Bills allowed over 25.5 points in 4 games last season, and they all happened in Buffalo. Miami just so happened to have 2 of those games, a good sign that coach Mike McDaniel has a good read on how to face this division rival.
The Pick
Buffalo’s defense has been very strong this season, but it is hard to say this unit has faced anything close to Miami’s scheme, speed, and talent. The Bills have held the Jets, Raiders, and Commanders to 35 combined points, but the Dolphins just had a game where they averaged 35 points per half.
This should be a fun one, and even if the Bills win another high-scoring game over Miami, we are confident that the Dolphins are going to go over 25.5 points in this one for the 3rd-straight meeting with Buffalo.
NFL Pick: Dolphins Over 25.5 Points (-115) at Caesars Sportsbook
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Tennessee Titans
Sunday, October 1, 2023 – 01:00 PM EDT at Nissan Stadium
Titans Struggle with Bengals
The Bengals finally got a win this season after beating the Rams 19-16 on Monday night. The Titans lost 27-3 in Cleveland after a brutal performance by the offense against an elite defense.
These teams are meeting in Tennessee for the 3rd year in a row, but the Bengals have won the previous matchups. The Bengals are a 2.5-point road favorite with a total of 44.5 points. We are looking at Tennessee’s scoring total (over/under 20.5 points).
Passing Struggles
Picking apart the Chargers was one thing, but the Titans had no answers for elite pass defenses in the Saints (Week 1) and Browns (Week 3). The Titans managed just 6 first downs against the Browns last week. Even the reliable Derrick Henry and the running game was held to 15 carries for 26 yards in a 27-3 rout.
Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill has faced the Bengals 7 times in his career. He is 2-5 with an active 5-game losing streak, and only once did he lead his team to more than 20 points. Even that game deserves an asterisk as it was a 22-20 overtime win in 2013 when Tannehill was with the Dolphins. He only led the offense to 13 points that night, but the Dolphins won thanks to a pick-six and a game-ending safety in overtime.
The Titans were only able to score 16 points at home in the most recent meetings, including that 2021 divisional round playoff loss where Tannehill threw 3 interceptions. This has been a bad opponent for the Titans.
The Bengals Have a Defense Too
Cincinnati won mostly thanks to an aggressive defense that intercepted Matthew Stafford twice and sacked the Rams quarterback 6 times on Monday night. The Rams were sitting on 9 points at the 2-minute warning before finally cracking the end zone in a 19-16 loss.
Joe Burrow may not be right yet on offense, but the Cincinnati defense should be trusted to come up with a good plan for this limited Tennessee offense.
Tannehill’s sack rate is a staggering 13.5% this year, which would easily be the worst of his career. The Bengals have the pass rushers to get after him and make this a rough game.
The Pick
Tennessee lacks the playmakers to deal with the Bengals, and the offensive line has not been a strength so far. The Bengals held Henry to 38 yards on 17 carries last year. They can hold this team under 21 points again for your NFL picks.
NFL Pick: Titans Under 20.5 Points (-105) at Bet365
Minnesota Vikings vs. Carolina Panthers
Sunday, October 1, 2023 – 01:00 PM EDT at Bank of America Stadium
Can Carolina End Embarrassing Streak in the Clutch?
The Panthers and Vikings are both 0-3, so despite Kirk Cousins and Andy Dalton playing each other to an overtime tie in the past, someone should walk out of this game with a 0-4 record.
The Panthers are a 3.5-point home underdog, but we are looking at them delivering in the 4th quarter.
Carolina’s Embarrassing Streak
The Panthers have lost 53 straight games when trailing in the 4th quarter. It is a streak that goes back to the 2018 season, surviving the end of Ron Rivera’s tenure, the entire Matt Rhule era, and each game of Frank Reich’s 0-3 start this year.
This is a brutal streak when every other team in the NFL has at least 6 4th-quarter comeback wins since 2018.
But the Panthers at least showed some fight and scoring ability in the 4th quarter in Seattle. Despite losing the quarter battle 15-14 and the game 37-27, it was easily the best the offense looked all season after going to veteran quarterback Andy Dalton in place of injured rookie Bryce Young.
It is unclear if Young will play this week or not, but his ankle injury was initially considered a 1-to-2-week injury, so it could be Dalton again in Week 4. That would be good news for Adam Thielen, who went off on the Seattle secondary and could do so again in this matchup with a Minnesota pass defense that allowed over 450 passing yards to the Chargers.
Minnesota’s Regression in Close Games
That 53-game losing streak is a staggering number of games for Carolina when you consider a team like Minnesota had 8 4th-quarter comeback wins in the 2022 season alone. That tied the single-season record, and it seems like the Vikings are paying for it ever since with close-game regression.
Head coach Kevin O’Connell started his career 11-0 in close games for the Vikings last year, but they have now gone 0-4 since the playoff loss to the Giants. This was expected to happen, but it is still shocking how bad the Vikings have been with losing fumbles and running the ball this year.
Kirk Cousins is actually playing very well, though the Panthers could be one of the better defenses he has seen this year. Justin Jefferson also left the last game with cramping, but he should be okay for this game.
But the Minnesota defense is still atrocious after releasing many veterans and bringing in defensive coordinator Brian Flores. You cannot trust this team to stop the opponent with the game on the line, and you cannot even trust the offense to deliver in those moments like it did last year.
The Pick
Whether it is Young or Dalton at quarterback, we feel the same way about this pick. The Panthers will get another big game out of Thielen against his former team, and they will end their 53-game streak of losing when trailing in the 4th quarter by coming back to beat the Vikings with a big 4th-quarter finish.
NFL Pick: Panthers 4th Quarter Moneyline (+130) at Caesars Sportsbook
