The NFL Week 5 schedule has some big games this Sunday, with the Broncos and Commanders both trying to avoid 2-3 starts behind their young quarterbacks who made the playoffs last year as rookies. But we’ll get started with a London game where points could be at a premium with the Vikings and Browns clashing with backup quarterbacks.
Let’s look at our top expert picks for Week 5 in the NFL.
Exploiting Quarterback Inexperience in This Week’s NFL Picks
Now into October, teams should start to show their true form in 2025. We think teams like the Chargers, Eagles, and Vikings are all solid defensively, but they’ll get tested by some inexperienced quarterbacks like Jayden Daniels, Bo Nix, and rookie Dillon Gabriel.
The unders are in play in these games, and you could argue the “home team” is favored in each, with the Vikings technically a road team in London, but they stayed overseas after their Ireland loss to Pittsburgh, so they should feel more rested.
Our picks are leaning on defensive coaches and their experience in making life hard on the youngsters.
Vikings vs. Browns (+3.5)
Picking the Vikings last week in Ireland against Pittsburgh didn’t quite work out. But they were just short of an 18-point comeback behind Carson Wentz, who had to play without several starting linemen. That could be problematic against the Browns, who have Myles Garrett leading a great run defense and pass rush.
Meanwhile, rookie quarterback Dillon Gabriel takes over for Joe Flacco, who was benched after too many turnovers. Gabriel is a wild card, but he played a lot of college football, where he threw over 2,100 passes. But defensive coordinator Brian Flores should be able to show him some tricks that Aaron Rodgers wasn’t falling for so easily last week.
The only reason we want to avoid the spread is the thought of Carson Wentz coughing up some strip-sacks for short fields that help the Browns score. But hopefully that doesn’t happen, and the game is a snooze for those seeking offense. Between jet lag, a bad Cleveland offense with a rookie quarterback in his 1st start, and the Minnesota offensive line, we are indeed going with the under 36.5 points here.
Expert Pick: Under 36.5 (-118) at BetMGM
Broncos vs. Eagles (-3.5)
Are the Eagles playing great football? No, but they’re still 4-0 and have even covered the spread 3 weeks in a row despite calling so much suboptimal offense. Can you believe this team is dead last in 3-and-out rate on offense, or that Saquon Barkley is averaging just 3.1 yards per carry?
However, the Eagles keep finding ways to win, and the Broncos haven’t really looked impressive outside of blowing out the Bengals in Monday night’s penalty fest. But now it’s a short week to go to Philly, Jalen Carter and company could give Bo Nix a tough time by containing the run and forcing him to throw more passes, as he’s not experienced enough to avoid bad picks yet.
The Denver defense may lock up A.J. Brown with Patrick Surtain II, but there are other options for the Eagles, and the Denver defense has been a paper tiger the last 2 seasons, beating up on the worst offenses in the league.
The Eagles may not be able to sustain this for a full season, but we’re still going to trust them to cover at home against a Denver team that is only 1-2-1 ATS so far.
Expert Pick: Eagles -3.5 (-110) at Caesars
Commanders vs. Chargers (-2.5)
The Chargers (3-1) lost their 1st game last week to the Giants after losing left tackle Joe Alt to an injury that will keep him out for a few weeks. Bad news for an offense that already lost Rashawn Slater at the other tackle spot for the year.
However, rookie back Omarion Hampton found some of his best runs of the year without Alt in the game last week. Justin Herbert usually bounces back from a rough loss, and his trio of wide receivers should feast on this Washington secondary.
The wild card is what Jayden Daniels does in his return from injury after sitting out the last 2 games, then he was arguably the most ineffective he’s ever been in Week 2 in Green Bay. This offense is a bit out of sorts with trying to implement the new pieces in the backfield and Deebo Samuel.
Jim Harbaugh is a very good coach and usually doesn’t go on losing streaks as a favorite. Daniels can certainly put up points, but I’d look for a lower-scoring game that the Chargers are able to win by at least 3 points.
Expert Pick: Chargers -2.5 (-120) at BetMGM
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More Picks from Our Experts
Don’t miss Donnie RightSide’s top picks for this week below. And be sure to visit our YouTube channel for more daily betting advice!
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