There may be more important division rivalries in the NFL, but Chargers-Chiefs has produced the most entertaining games in the 2020s. They meet again this week with the Chargers (2-3) practically in must-win mode. We are also looking at a big game between the Lions and Ravens, and there is a solid game prop to take advantage of in Steelers-Rams.
We make our best bets for Week 7 below, and you can always find these bets at the top-rated sportsbooks.
Picks Summary
- Rams Over 1.5 Field Goals Made (-135) at Bet365
- Lions-Ravens Under 42 Points (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
- Chargers +3.5 First Half Spread (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Rams Love Kicking Field Goals in 2023
The Rams (3-3) have a chance to get above .500 with a win over the Steelers (3-2), who are coming off a bye week and have not played great football despite their winning record.
The Rams are a 3-point home favorite, but we are focusing on a game prop for their total number of made field goals to go over 1.5.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Los Angeles Rams
Sunday, October 22, 2023 – 04:05 PM EDT at SoFi Stadium
The Rams Stall Short of the End Zone a Lot
Teams coached by Sean McVay were known for offense for years, but after a rough 2022, they are back to doing more familiar things with Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp.
The Rams have scored on 47.6% of their drives this year, which ranks No. 4 in the NFL. However, the Rams are only 12th in points scored because their drives often fall short of the end zone. It’s not necessarily the red zone that is the issue. The Rams rank 11th in red zone touchdown rate (57.9%).
It’s more that the Rams can drive between the 20s well before things bog down. The Rams rank No. 4 in yards per drive too. But the Rams have attempted a league-high 20 field goals this season. Their 16 made field goals only trail the Texans (17).
New kicker Brett Maher has had a solid season. The last we saw him in Dallas, he missed 5 extra points in the playoffs, including 4 in a row in Tampa Bay. But he is 16-of-20 with the Rams.
But the key stat here is that Maher has made at least 3 field goals in 5-of-6 games this year. The only game where he did not have any field goal attempts at all was the 23-14 loss against the Eagles.
We only need over 1.5 field goals to be good for this prop to hit. If Maher kicks 3 again, then that’s gravy.
Pittsburgh’s Defensive Impact
The Steelers have been an odd defense this season. T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith provide an outstanding pass rush that could give Matthew Stafford some real problems. But the Steelers have been terrible in the secondary, and they were picked apart by the Kyle Shanahan-schemed offenses of the 49ers and Texans. They held up much better against the Ravens, Raiders, and Browns – teams they beat late last season and are more familiar with.
This is another unfamiliar opponent with a good offensive coach. But this matchup still feels like a good one for the Rams to move the ball well with Stafford throwing to Kupp and Puka Nacua. But Watt or Highsmith could win a few key downs and make the drive stall out for a field goal attempt in what should be a fairly low-scoring game.
The Pick
It’s not like the Steelers have an offense that is going to threaten you to score many touchdowns to win the game. Trust the score to be low and for Maher to make a few field goals.
NFL Pick: Rams Over 1.5 Field Goals Made (-135) at Bet365
Lions and Ravens Grind It Out
The Lions (5-1) and Ravens (4-2) are some of the better teams that are flying under the radar a bit this year. They will have a chance to show who is the more physical team in what should be a solid, close game.
The Ravens are a 3-point home favorite with a total of 42 points. We are looking at the total.
Detroit Lions vs. Baltimore Ravens
Sunday, October 22, 2023 – 01:00 PM EDT at M&T Bank Stadium
Lions Missing Their Bell-Cow
The Lions are an interesting team that is built in the trenches with solid skill players on offense. But the Lions were missing their top running back last week after David Montgomery was injured early and had to leave the game in Tampa Bay.
The Lions were already missing rookie Jahmyr Gibbs, so the ground game fared poorly. Detroit finished with 22 runs for 40 yards, but fortunately, Jared Goff had a big 300-yard passing game to make sure the team had enough to win 20-6.
It sounds like Montgomery is going to miss some time. Gibbs could be back this Sunday, but the Lions have leaned heavily on Montgomery, who has done well for the team. This may have to be a game where Goff does more of the heavy lifting again.
But playing in Baltimore is not an ideal matchup for quarterbacks. No one is going to confuse this defense for the 2000 or 2006 Ravens, but the 2023 Ravens do allow a league-low 4.0 net yards per pass attempt. Goff will have his work cut out for him without Montgomery available.
Ravens Are Good but Not Flashy
There was some hope that Baltimore could return Lamar Jackson to his 2019 MVP form with the hiring of new offensive coordinator Todd Monken and acquiring new receivers like Zay Flowers, Odell Beckham Jr., and getting Rashod Bateman back.
Unfortunately, Beckham and Bateman have had some injury problems again. Flowers has been good for a rookie, but the whole receiving corps had some untimely drops in Pittsburgh in a Week 5 loss. The offense also looked stagnant like previous years in an overtime loss to the Colts in Week 3.
In some ways, it still feels like the Ravens of 2021 and 2022 before Jackson was injured in December of both seasons. They’ll play well early in games, then they have to hang on for dear life in the 4th quarter.
The Ravens have not topped 28 points in any game this season, and Detroit’s solid defense makes it seem unlikely that this will be a shootout or the game where they hit 30. Aidan Hutchinson is a great edge rusher for the Lions, and he can even intercept passes if you’re not careful with the ball around him.
The Pick
It should be a good game in decent October weather for Baltimore. But the thought of Goff on the road and Baltimore facing a strong line still intuitively tells me to take the under.
Under 42 would have hit in 5-of-6 games for the Ravens this year. It would have only hit in 3-of-6 Detroit games, but we’ve seen this team look a little different when it travels away from the dome and plays a solid defensive team. The Lions won 21-20 in Kansas City and 20-6 in Tampa last week. That 21-20 sounds like a good model for this game given the Ravens’ fascination with cutting it close. We’ll take the under.
NFL Pick: Under 42 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Chargers Must Play Their Best
The Chargers (2-3) looked shaky in their 20-17 loss on Monday night to Dallas, and now they must travel to Arrowhead to take on their division nemesis in the Chiefs. But Justin Herbert has a strong history of playing well against this team despite the poor record against Patrick Mahomes (1-4).
The Chiefs are a 5.5-point home favorite and look to have their best defense yet in the Mahomes era, but we are betting to see if the Chargers can keep it close by halftime again.
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, October 22, 2023 – 04:25 PM EDT at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Herbert’s History vs. Chiefs
How can anyone forget how Justin Herbert made his NFL debut as a rookie in Week 2 of the 2020 season? The Chargers’ medical staff punctured starting quarterback Tyrod Taylor’s lung before a game, so Herbert was a surprise start against the defending champs.
All Herbert did was throw for over 300 yards and have his team up 17-9 in the 4th quarter. But as would be the case in this rivalry, Mahomes led his team back and the Chargers lost in overtime.
Despite gaudy stats, Herbert is 2-4 against the Chiefs and 1-4 in games with Mahomes active. But the Chargers have led at halftime in all 6 games, and Herbert’s had a 4th-quarter lead over Mahomes in all 5 meetings.
The games have been lost at the end, but Herbert has started well. In Arrowhead, he’s had the Chargers up 14-3 and 10-7 the last 2 seasons.
This season, the Chargers trailed Miami 20-17 at halftime, and they were only down 10-7 against a better Dallas team. In fact, Chargers +3.5 at halftime is a bet that would have hit in 33-of-40 games coached by Brandon Staley since 2021, including the last 16 games in a row for this team.
We know it’s not how games start that has been the problem for Staley’s team. It’s how they (don’t) finish.
Chiefs Not Burying Teams This Year
If Taylor Swift loves Travis Kelce as much as her fans are obsessed with her, then she’ll find the right protection spell to keep him healthy, because the Chiefs are in trouble without him this year.
You have to think Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid will figure this receiver situation out, but right now, there looks to be a lack of trust in the non-Kelce receivers, and the team has no idea what to do with Skyy Moore and Kadarius Toney.
Rookie Rashee Rice has looked good, but they just lost Justin Watson, their best deep threat this year, to an injury. It’s a revolving door at wideout for the best quarterback in the league, and he is going to have to make it work in a matchup like this if Herbert brings his A game.
But the Bears are so far the only team that Kansas City has scored more than 27 points against. The Chiefs have played 4-of-6 games decided by one possession, and they were only up 7-6 on Jacksonville at halftime and tied at 13 in Minnesota in Week 5.
The Pick
You’ll know the jinx was on if the Chargers bomb in the 1st half for the first time since Week 7 last season. But between this team’s competitive past against the Chiefs and the way Kansas City is not lighting up the scoreboard this year, it feels safe to back the Chargers to give them trouble again.
After all, the Chargers better play with some urgency as 2-4 is not a place they want to be in this AFC race.
NFL Pick: Chargers +3.5 First Half Spread (-110) at Bet365
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