Let’s get the week started with some baseball action. We’ve gone over the MLB odds at the top betting sites and selected our favorite computer picks.
Today, the AI Model predicts the Mariners and Reds will go Under the 7.5 total with just seven runs. The Model likes the Mariners to escape with a 4-3 victory. However, the Mariners are still -150 favorites. Therefore, the value is on the Under.
For more of today’s betting analysis, check out:
MLB Pick: Under 7.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Cincinnati Reds vs. Seattle Mariners
Monday, April 15, 2024 – 09:40 PM ET at T-Mobile Park
Pitcher’s Duel In Seattle
The Cincinnati Reds took a chance on Frankie Montas in the offseason after he missed most of his potential starts with the Yankees over the last two seasons.
However, Montas has been super good for the Reds to start the season.
Fresh Start
Montas has allowed a .094 ISO and a wOBA of .271, with 43.1% grounders and just 19.6% fly balls allowed. He’s also kept walks down despite just 19.1% strikeouts.
Montas has always been considered an ace pitcher. He just wasn’t healthy with the Yankees and got a fresh start with the Reds. He’ll take on a Mariners team that has struck out against righties over 25% of the time since last year. This game could help Montas get his strikeout numbers back up.
It’s Kirby Time
Meanwhile, George Kirby will get the start for the Mariners. He’s typically good at keeping walks down and limiting batters from getting on base via hits.
Kirby held teams to a .147 ISO and wOBA of .288 last season. This year, he’s struggled a little bit more with his wOBA average and that’s due to his lower ground ball rate.
MLB Computer Pick
However, the Reds’ lineup has hit more than 40% of ground balls against righties since last season. The lineup has also struck out 25% of the time against righties in that same time frame.
I’ll trust the two starters and back the Under. I’m with the AI Model here.
MLB Pick: Under 7.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
