No tournament has the tradition, pomp, and circumstance that Wimbledon does. Wimbledon is synonymous with tennis royalty and a win at Wimbledon can change your career. With these players vying for the ultimate prize, we know that we will get a great effort from each participant in these matches. With that in mind, we don’t need to worry about motivation; we are just looking at playing style and the matchup.
Let’s take a look at the board to find winning tennis picks at the top-rated sportsbooks.
Picks Summary:Â
- Xinyu Wang ML (-135)
- Reilly Opelka/Alexander Shevchenko Under 39.5 games (+100)
*All odds from BetMGM (check our BetMGM Review)
Karolina Muchova vs. Xinyu Wang
Tuesday, July 01, 2025 – 06:00 AM EDT at The All England Lawn Tennis Club
This is quite an interesting match.
Karolina Muchova definitely has a much higher ceiling as a player. She is also currently ranked higher as she is number 15 and Xinyu Wang is number 33. However, Wang is the favorite because of her recent form, (and I do mean recent) as Wang struggled on the clay swing.
However, after qualifying for Berlin, she was able to make the final before falling to Marketa Vondrousova. On the way to the final, she eliminated:
- Ludmilla Samsonova
- Paula Badosa
- Coco Gauff
- Daria Kasatkina
She even needed to beat the well-respected Ons Jabeur to qualify for the tournament. Now, she is being favored just off the strength of the results in Berlin. Wang struggled on clay and was eliminated in the first round of the French Open and her first grass tournament.
I can understand why the odds makers are worried about Karolina Muchova’s form. She lost in the round of 16 in WTA London to Tatjana Maria, who’s not considered a high quality player. She lost in the first round of the French Open, and before that, her most recent tournament was WTA Miami three months ago. So, not only does Muchova come into the match with questionable form, but she is also rusty as injuries continue to plague her career.
Muchova Mixes It Up, Wang Grinds It Out
When I first looked at this matchup, I did think I would be picking Karolina Muchova. Her style of play should translate better to grass. She is excellent with slice, she can play with guile, and keeps her opponents off balance by changing pace. Muchova is a highly versatile player.
In contrast, Wang likes to play in the same way in every match. She is a consistent baseliner who will grind her opponents down and force mistakes. I thought Muchova would have the edge in this style matchup.
When you’re looking at the form and the amount of tennis played, it’s hard to back Karolina Muchova at this time. Wang comes into this matchup in excellent form after playing a great tournament in Berlin. Even though I do believe Karolina Muchova is a much better player overall, at this point in time, I don’t think she’s ready to take on the surging Xinyu Wang.
Our first bet for today will be the Xinyu Wang moneyline.
Tennis Pick: Xinyu Wang ML (-135) at BetMGM
Reilly Opelka vs. Alexander Shevchenko
Tuesday, July 01, 2025 – 10:00 AM EDT at The All England Lawn Tennis Club
This will be a rematch of when these two players met in the round of 32 at the ATP Dallas in February. In this match, Reilly Opelka was able to get the 7-6, 6-4 victory over Alexander Shevchenko. Now, Opelka will try to achieve the same feat albeit on a much bigger stage.
Reilly Opelka is a big-serving player who can struggle with returns and rallies. Opelka is heavily dependent on serving well in order to win his matches. Fortunately for Opelka, he serves well quite often as indicated by his number 72 ranking in the world.
Alexander Shevchenko is currently ranked number 97. However, he comes into this match in terrible form. He lost in the first round of qualifying the ATP Mallorca to Elias Ymer. Before that, he was able to make the semifinals of an ATP Challenger; however, that level of competition will not do anything to get him prepared for Wimbledon. Before that, Shevchenko played another Challenger. So, while Opelka has been going head-to-head with some of the best players in the world, Shevchenko has been beating lesser competition.
Dropping Down in Class Won’t Help
I do understand the idea that you would want to jump down a competition to find your form. However, I don’t think that will get you ready for a player like Reilly Opelka, especially against one of the toughest of serves in the world to return. Opelka matches usually feature plenty of tiebreaks which is why this total is set at 39.5. 3 7-6 sets will get you to 39 so you’re basically betting that this match will end in 3 sets (even with three tiebreaks being played in the first three sets).
Usually in my mind, Reilly Opelka equals over, but he is going against a player that is really struggling to find himself right now. Opelka should be able to replicate his performance in Dallas where he was able to get the break in the second set in order to finish the match early.
So, we are going to buck the normal trend (don’t get used to I’ll be targeting plenty of Reilly Opelka overs for the rest of the tournament). But this one we are going under 39.5 games.
Tennis Pick: Reilly Opelka/Alexander Shevchenko Under 39.5 games (+100) at BetMGM
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