It’s Asia’s time to shine this weekend when the Ultimate Fighting Championship ships its octagon to China, and we have an intriguing 12-fight card to break down from a betting perspective.
Sumudaerji, Kevin Borjas, Taiyilake Nueraji, and Kiefer Crosbie are involved in two highly anticipated main card wars, and I’ve found some significant UFC betting value we can take advantage of.
Let’s waste no more time and dive right into my favorite UFC Shanghai predictions and analysis for the main card.
UFC Shanghai Event Information
- Date & Time: Saturday, August 23, 2025 – 03:00 AM EDT
- Location: Shanghai Indoor Stadium
- Scheduled Fights: 12
- Main Event: Johnny Walker vs. Mingyang Zhang (UFC weight Title Bout)
Su Mudaerji vs. Kevin Borjas
UFC Shanghai Flyweight Main Card Bout
Fighter Breakdown
Su Mudaerji
Su Mudaerji’s 4-4 UFC record does put some red flags over his skill set, but styles make fights, and we should note that those four defeats were predominantly lost due to a significant grappling disadvantage.
- Su Mudaerji Pro MMA Record: 17-7
- Su Mudaerji KOs: 13
- Su Mudaerji Submissions: 1
Kevin Borjas
Fortunately for him, Kevin Borjas is a fellow slugger who loves a firefight on the feet, and this is where Su Mudaerji has previously shone.
- Borjas Pro MMA Record: 2
- Borjas KOs: 8
- Borjas Submissions: 0
Su Mudaerji vs. Borjas: Fight Tape Analysis
Don’t get me wrong, both fighters are on a similar level playing field, but in an expected standup war, one has to favor the fighter whose defense looks sharper. Outside of his brawl with Matt Schnell, Su Mudaerji has been defensively sound, and his striking work in the green zone has been on point.
In contrast, Borjas can be dragged into the counter-striking game where he’s suffered the consequences. The Peruvian is aggressive and will undoubtedly be looking to land some nasty combinations on the inside. Still, this boxing style has limited him in the past, and I believe Su Mudaerji has the intelligence to avoid going blow for blow, where the underdog could shine.
Odds & Prediction
The UFC odds place Su Mudaerji as the betting favorite, but the price point isn’t crazy. Therefore, I’m willing to take a shot on the moneyline for a fighter that should be the more technically sound striker, opposed to the one-dimensional boxing offense of Borjas.
UFC Pick: Su Mudaerji ML (-170) [1.7u returns 1u profit] at Caesars
Taiyilake Nueraji vs. Kiefer Crosbie
UFC Shanghai Welterweight Main Card Bout
Fighter Breakdown
Taiyilake Nueraji
Eleven pro bouts, 10 knockout wins, and three consecutive first-round knockouts place UFC newcomer Taiyilake Nueraji in a great position to make an impact in his UFC debut this weekend, but will the bright lights of a main card bout on home soil be too much pressure?
- Nueraji Pro MMA Record: 11-1
- Nueraji KOs: 10
- Nueraji Submissions: 1
Kiefer Crosbie
Usually, I’d say yes. However, Ireland’s Kiefer Crosbie is arguably one of the easiest layups for a debuting fighter at 170lbs. Underwhelming would be an understatement when discussing the Irishman, who has struggled with the high-level competition under Dana White’s flagship promotion to hold a 0-2 record.
- Crosbie Pro MMA Record: 10-5-0
- Crosbie KOs: 5
- Crosbie Submissions: 2
Nueraji vs. Crosbie: Fight Tape Analysis
I’d like to give Crosbie the benefit of the doubt and highlight how his first two UFC opponents weren’t stylistically suitable (easily out-grappled), and how Nueraji, a fellow striker, might allow him to shine… However, Crosbie has looked so out of sorts that I’m not willing to do so.
The level of competition Nueraji has faced isn’t noteworthy, but he’s made such quick work of these opponents that it’s hard to doubt him versus an opponent like Crosbie that is of a similar level.
The Chinaman is so aggressive, and with outside factors such as age, size, and power all favoring him, I like his chances to make a big statement by finishing his food early in Shanghai this weekend.
Odds & Prediction
The UFC pricing with OddsTraders’ top sportsbooks place Nueraji as the betting favorite, but fear not, because with the expectation that this fight will end in under 1 ½ rounds, we can couple the plays and receive a tidy -143 price tag.
MMA maths additionally supports us: all 5 of Crosbie’s pro-MMA losses were under 1½ rounds, and Nueraji has finished 9 of his 11 pro-MMA opponents in under 1½ rounds.
UFC Pick: Nueraji & Under 1½ Rounds (-143) [1.43 returns 1u profit] at BetMGM
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
