The NFL’s Week 10 schedule has 3 prime-time games, and for the 3rd week in a row, we believe the best one involves the Buffalo Bills.
- On Monday night, the Buffalo Bills look to bounce back at home against a Denver team that is coming off a bye week and a huge win over Kansas City.
- On Thursday night, the Chicago Bears host the Carolina Panthers as D.J. Moore looks to remind his old team what they are missing.
- On Sunday night, the New York Jets will try to score a touchdown as they face the Las Vegas Raiders.
We made our top pick for each prime-time game in Week 10, and you can find the best odds at OddsTrader’s top sportsbooks.
Picks Summary
- Broncos-Bills – Bills ML & Under 47.5 Points (+125) at Bet365
- Jets -1.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
- D.J. Moore Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+175) at Bet365
Buffalo Circles the Wagons on Monday Night
The Buffalo Bills (5-4) went from AFC East favorites to the No. 8 seed and unfavorable odds to make the playoffs after an important loss to the Bengals in Week 9. But they are still a better team than the Denver Broncos (3-5), who had a bye week to prepare under Sean Payton, and they are coming off their best win over the Chiefs.
But can Buffalo rebound as a 7.5-point home favorite with a total of 47.5 points? We think the Bills start and finish strong, and since Monday night is where offense goes to die this year, we have the under in mind too. We combined the picks for a single game prop at Bet365 that takes the Buffalo moneyline and under 47.5 points.
Denver Broncos vs. Buffalo Bills
Monday, November 13, 2023 – 08:15 PM EDT at Highmark Stadium
Bills Are a Classic Front-Running Team
When the Bills are playing well, you see it early in games as they like to jump all over opponents on both sides of the ball, which is why they win so often by double digits. Buffalo is currently ranked in the top 5 in both scoring offense and defense, which is something it did for the whole seasons in 2021 and 2022 as well.
This is an elite team that has hit a rough patch, but the Bills are still No. 2 in the NFL in scoring differential at plus-80. The Bills have some notable injuries on defense, but it is hard to see a middling Denver offense score a lot of points in this game.
Russell Wilson is still taking sacks on over 10% of his plays. His touchdown pass rate is inflated since the Broncos have a league-low 1 rushing touchdown. They are only 15th on 3rd down and in the red zone. All 24 points the Broncos scored against Kansas City in Week 8 came on drives that started in the Chiefs’ territory. Wilson couldn’t net 100 passing yards in either game against the Kansas City defense.
While the Denver defense has improved from the days of letting Miami score 70 points or Justin Fields completing all his passes for a half, the unit is still overly reliant on takeaways, which was the key to upsetting Kansas City in Week 8.
The Bills definitely have issues in playing Cincinnati, but this game should look a lot closer to the Week 8 win over Tampa Bay where the Bills largely did what they wanted at home in a 24-18 final. Even that final is misleading as it took a miracle touchdown drive by the Bucs (multiple 4th downs converted via penalty and tipped balls on the touchdown and 2-point conversion) just to get within 6 points late.
It would be very surprising to not see the Bills leading at halftime in this one to satisfy the first part of our prop pick.
Monday Night Is Where Scoring Goes to Die
The offense in Monday night games this season has been absurdly bad. Thanks to a couple of double-headers, we have had 11 games on Monday nights in the 2023 NFL season. Here are some key facts:
- The under is 10-1 on Monday nights.
- The only game the over hit was Browns at Steelers in Week 2, a 26-22 game that got that high thanks to the Steelers returning a pair of turnovers for touchdowns in an otherwise awful offensive game.
- The Browns are the only losing team on Monday night this year to score more than 17 points.
- No team has scored more than 27 points on Monday night this season, and the Chargers only got to 27 against the Jets (Week 9) after a late fumble was returned to the 2-yard line in the final minutes.
- Under 47.5 would have hit in 10-of-11 Monday night games this season.
- Favorites are 7-3-1 ATS on Monday night this season.
It would be surprising if Buffalo scored more than 27, and if Denver even got to 20 points in this one. For what it’s worth, the Bills have been held to 25 points in 6-of-9 games this season. None of Denver’s last 3 games have topped 36 points.
The Pick
In the Josh Allen era, the Bills are 20-1 SU as a home favorite of at least 7 points. Throw in the Monday night scoring slump for the league, and the way Sean Payton is using Wilson more like Taysom Hill than Drew Brees, and we are confident this is the right pick for this matchup to end Week 10.
NFL Pick: Bills ML & Under 47.5 Points (+125) at Bet365
Trusting the Jets’ Defense
Last Sunday night, we watched Joe Burrow and Josh Allen in a big AFC match. This week, we get Zach Wilson and rookie Aidan O’Connell. What do they have in common?
They both were sacked at least 7 times by the Chargers in a game this year. They also both play for the last 2 teams to get embarrassed on Monday Night Football in losses.
It sure would have been nice to see the 49ers-Jaguars get flexed into this spot, but here we are. The Jets are a 1.5-point road favorite, and that number has already been dropping after how bad things looked Monday night on offense against the Chargers.
But we think this is the right matchup to trust the Jets. More specifically, trust the better defense in a battle of teams without legitimate quarterbacks.
New York Jets vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Sunday, November 12, 2023 – 08:20 PM EDT at Allegiant Stadium
Aidan O’Connell vs. Jets
Let’s give Robert Saleh credit for turning the Jets around from an awful defense when he got there in 2021 to a great unit that still lacks an elite edge rusher. Imagine if the Raiders lent Maxx Crosby to the Jets, and you might be looking at the best defense in the NFL.
Unfortunately, the Jets still don’t have a quarterback after the injury to Aaron Rodgers, so the best they can do is terrorize the other team’s quarterback to keep the game close. While the Jets did not force a turnover against the Chargers on Monday night, they held Justin Herbert to a career-low 136 passing yards and sacked him 5 times.
That was impressive work, and we have already seen the Jets intercept Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, and Josh Allen a combined 8 times earlier this season. They surely can cause some havoc to a rookie like O’Connell, who did not throw an interception last week in his 2nd career start, but he also took 7 sacks against the Chargers earlier this season.
If Zach Wilson can stay away from the fumbles on the other side, the Jets have a good shot to win this little quarterback matchup by having the better defense.
Experience and Talent Favor Jets
In some ways, these teams are similar. The Raiders largely are relying on Davante Adams and Josh Jacobs on offense, but the Jets have Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall as 2nd-year players who hope to be All-Pro soon. With the way the Raiders have failed to get Adams involved and struggled to block for Jacobs, it is hard to say the Raiders have a real edge here.
Wilson is good at producing even with Wilson at quarterback, and Hall is capable of breaking big runs.
The defense favors the Jets for sure as we said before. Crosby is the only edge the Jets lack at edge rusher. He is relentless for Vegas, but you can still run on this team and move the ball well.
Finally, there is the matter of experience at coaching. Saleh is in his 3rd year with the Jets. Antonio Pierce is the interim coach for the Raiders, and they also fired their offensive coordinator last week. The first game was an expected big win against the lowly Giants, but how much longer does the dopamine hit last from getting rid of Josh McDaniels? The team still has major flaws to address, and we have no idea if Pierce and his new assistants in power are going to be brilliant tacticians of the game or just rah-rah guys the players warm up to because they’re not miserable like McDaniels.
The Pick
Remember when the Raiders allowed Kenny Pickett to have his only game with multiple touchdown passes for the Steelers earlier this year? We’re not going to say Zach Wilson has that kind of night. But we trust him more against the inferior defense to not mess the game up than we trust a rookie (O’Connell) to not look awful against the Jets.
It should be another rough watch, but we’ll take the Jets to cover on the road.
NFL Pick: Jets -1.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
D.J. Moore Revenge Game vs. Carolina
The boldness to trade away No. 1 wide receiver D.J. Moore to help acquire the No. 1 pick to draft quarterback Bryce Young was always a questionable move by the Carolina Panthers. The Bears understandably needed Moore to fill that role for them, but Carolina also needed a quality receiver for Young to throw to this year as he goes through the growing pains of the NFL.
Through Week 9, both teams are losing and in the race for another No. 1 pick, both quarterbacks are struggling and rank in the bottom quarter of the league in QBR, and the only person who looks like a winner in this so far is Moore, who is on pace for a career year.
Moore gets his first shot at his former team this Thursday night. We are looking at his prop pick for scoring a touchdown.
Carolina Panthers vs. Chicago Bears
Thursday, November 9, 2023 – 08:15 PM EDT at Soldier Field
Moore’s Last Thursday Night Game
The last time D.J. Moore played on Thursday Night Football, it was Week 5 in Washington, and he only turned in the best game of his career. Moore finished with 8 catches for 230 yards and 3 touchdowns in a monster performance.
It has been the highlight of a season that sees Moore on pace to finish with career bests in several categories:
- Yards per game (81.7)
- Yards per target (11.9)
- Catch rate (75.8%)
- Receiving success rate (62.9%)
- 5 receiving touchdowns and on pace for 9 (career high is 7)
When Moore had his huge game against Washington, it was his 3rd game in a row with a touchdown catch. He has not caught another touchdown in the 4 games since, nor has he surpassed 55 yards in any of those games.
However, something happened in that game following his huge night. Justin Fields was injured during the Minnesota game and Tyson Bagent has been the quarterback ever since.
Justin Fields’ Return?
It is possible Fields returns from his thumb injury for this game as he has been listed on sportsbooks for prop picks and has been doing light work in practice for the team as he nears his return.
Fields may not be a huge edge over Bagent again, but he would be an improvement over the rookie when it comes to utilizing Moore properly. The Bears have tried to be safer with Bagent’s throws, and that can explain why Moore hasn’t had the big games with him.
With Fields, you know Moore can be a central part of the gameplan again. The Carolina defense has allowed 11 touchdown passes, but Tyreek Hill and Justin Jefferson were both able to score from over 30 yards out against this secondary.
The Pick
The revenge game angle doesn’t always work out. Tyreek Hill desperately wanted to score a touchdown against the Chiefs for Miami in Germany, and he sort of did. He just didn’t think it would be a fumble returned for a Kansas City touchdown.
Let’s hope Moore’s night goes better than that and he can find the end zone again to end this little drought and remind the Panthers of what they’re missing at wide receiver.
NFL Pick: D.J. Moore Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+175) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
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