The NFL’s Week 17 schedule is highlighted by the big showdown in Baltimore between the Dolphins and Ravens. But we also have a key matchup in the NFC South division between the Buccaneers and Saints, a chance for the Chiefs to wrap up the AFC West, an important game for the wild card races in Seattle, and a chance to see if Brock Purdy bounces back from a career-high 4 interceptions for our Week 17 NFL player props
For even more betting markets, make sure to bookmark the player props section on OddsTrader, and we included the top sportsbooks to make these bets.
Picks Summary
- Chris Godwin Receiving Yards Over 54.5 (-110) at Bet365
- Pat Freiermuth Receiving Yards Over 23.5 (-119) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Tyreek Hill Receiving Yards Over 92.5 (-117) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Travis Kelce Receiving Yards Over 62.5 (-119) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Brock Purdy Passing Yards Over 258.5 (-110) at Bet365
New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sunday, December 31, 2023 – 01:00 PM ET at Raymond James Stadium
Chris Godwin – Total Receiving Yards
The Buccaneers are rolling behind Baker Mayfield’s career season. Mike Evans leads the NFL with 13 touchdowns, which would be the first time he’s ever led in a major receiving category.
But let’s not forget about Chris Godwin. He had a season-high 155 yards in Green Bay in Week 15, and he followed it up with 78 yards against Jacksonville last week. He also had 114 yards in New Orleans in Week 4.
Rivalry Game?
Evans only had 40 yards in that game as he is often quiet against the Saints. Since 2019, Evans has been held under 70 yards in all 10 meetings with New Orleans. He has a huge rivalry with corner Marshon Lattimore, though he has been out with injury.
But the Saints have generally played Evans very well. That’s okay, because Godwin is usually the beneficiary of that attention. Godwin has gone over 54.5 yards in 3-of-4 meetings with the Saints since 2021. The only time he didn’t was the game where he tore his ACL.
The Pick
Maybe this is a game where Evans and Godwin both put up numbers again when you look at how well Baker is spreading the ball around right now. But we like Godwin to go over again, and don’t forget the Saints just allowed Puka Nacua, a No. 2 wideout for the Rams, to explode for 164 yards in Week 16.
NFL Pick: Chris Godwin Receiving Yards Over 54.5 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Seattle Seahawks
Sunday, December 31, 2023 – 04:05 PM ET at Lumen Field
Pat Freiermuth – Total Receiving Yards
Let’s hope the Steelers remember Pat Freiermuth exists this week. The tight end had the best game of his career earlier this season against Cincinnati with 9 catches for 120 yards, the only game in his career where he went over 85 yards.
But in a great matchup for him last week against the Bengals, Freiermuth didn’t receive a single target despite playing 63% of the offensive snaps. It was only the 2nd time in his 43-game career where he did not receive a target.
Failing Chemistry?
The Steelers did end up getting two huge YAC plays from George Pickens, and Mason Rudolph was the new starting quarterback in his first start since 2021, so chemistry could have been an issue.
But 0 targets is just wild stuff. The Steelers played the Seahawks in 2021 and Freiermuth caught all 7 of his targets in that game from Ben Roethlisberger for 58 yards. In his only other start with Rudolph as his quarterback against the Lions in 2021, Freiermuth had 9 targets, 5 catches, and 31 yards.
The Pick
This feels like a low bar for a starting tight end to clear, but Freiermuth has only gone over 23.5 yards in 3-of-10 games this year. We are going to bank on some regression to the mean, the Steelers remembering to use their tight end, and he gets enough to clear 23.5 yards.
NFL Pick: Pat Freiermuth Receiving Yards Over 23.5 (-119) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Miami Dolphins vs. Baltimore Ravens
Sunday, December 31, 2023 – 01:00 PM ET at M&T Bank Stadium
Tyreek Hill – Total Receiving Yards
The Dolphins have beat Baltimore in the last 2 seasons thanks in large part to hitting their defense over the top with big pass plays.
In 2021, starter Jacoby Brissett and then-reserve Tua Tagovailoa both had completions of over 50 yards as they combined to pass for 314 yards in a 22-10 win over the Ravens.
Last Year
Last year, Mike McDaniels came to town as coach with Tyreek Hill as the new No. 1 wide receiver, and Tagovailoa found Hill for touchdown bombs of 48 and 60 yards to lead a 21-point comeback in the 4th quarter in a wild 42-38 win.
Hill finished that game with 190 yards, and it was a taste of things to come with him in Miami in this speedy offense. He was well on pace for a 2,000-yard receiving season before his ankle injury knocked him off the pace. He still has a slight chance to do it, needing 359 yards in the final 2 games of the season against elite defenses in Baltimore and Buffalo.
But if anyone can pull it off, it’s Hill. He already has 8 100-yard games this year, including 6 games with at least 146 yards. If he could somehow get to 2,000 yards in these next 2 games and Miami claims the No. 1 seed, it might be plenty enough to win the MVP award, a first for the wide receiver position in this era.
The Pick
Thankfully, we don’t need Hill to get half of 359 yards in this game to hit his over. We just need him to notch over 92.5 yards for the 10th time this year.
Baltimore’s pass defense is great, but it is not immune to giving up numbers to receivers. The Ravens have already allowed 8 receivers to have 95 yards this year, including George Kittle (126) and Brandon Aiyuk (113) last Monday in San Francisco.
Hill is not just a deep-ball threat anymore either. He can catch a short pass and turn it into a 10-yard gain like he did on the pivotal 3rd down to help run out the clock on Dallas last week.
With Hill chasing history and Miami chasing a victory, we’ll roll with him to hit his over in this huge game.
NFL Pick: Tyreek Hill Receiving Yards Over 92.5 (-117) at Caesars Sportsbook
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, December 31, 2023 – 04:25 PM ET at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Travis Kelce – Total Receiving Yards
You might think Travis Kelce is enjoying the extreme publicity he’s received in 2023, a year that has seen him win a 2nd Super Bowl ring, star in a ton of commercials, and get Taylor Swift, the most popular woman in the world right now, to be his girlfriend.
But the 34-year-old tight end has been frustrated on the field as his Chiefs have already lost the most games (6) in a season in the Patrick Mahomes era. Kelce slammed his helmet in frustration on Christmas, which he had to talk to coach Andy Reid about.
Scoring Drought
Kelce is averaging a career-low 8.3 yards per target this season, and he hasn’t caught a touchdown in 5 straight games. He’s also been held to just 44 and 28 yards in the last 2 games, showing some slow play in the red zone and an early concentration drop against the Raiders.
But Kelce says he cannot wait to be dialed in this week as the Chiefs are running out of time to fix this offense. Thankfully, the Cincinnati defense should be the medicine he needs as no defense allows more yards to tight ends than the Bengals.
We have already seen 7 tight ends this year break 62.5 yards against the Bengals, including George Kittle (149), Pat Freiermuth (120), Evan Engram (82), and Dalton Kincaid (81).
If Kelce can’t pick it up for this matchup, then the Chiefs may be toast this year. The Bengals rank 31st in yards allowed for a reason.
The Pick
Expect some vintage Kelce in this game. In the last 2 AFC Championship Games at home against the Bengals, Kelce’s had 95 and 78 yards. He scored a touchdown in each game too. The Chiefs have looked a bit shaky in the red zone, so we’ll just take the over on the yards this time.
NFL Pick: Travis Kelce Receiving Yards Over 62.5 (-119) at Caesars Sportsbook
San Francisco 49ers vs. Washington Commanders
Sunday, December 31, 2023 – 01:00 PM ET at FedExField
Brock Purdy -Total Passing Yards
To play devil’s advocate, Brock Purdy did complete 18-of-32 passes for 255 yards against Baltimore’s top-ranked pass defense. Averaging 8.0 yards per pass attempt like that is elite against a defense that allows a league-low 5.8 yards per pass.
The problem is Purdy threw a career-high 4 interceptions in that game. But there were some that were deflected and took a bad bounce to the Ravens. He was hit as he threw on the last one too. Not everything was a terrible play by him.
Now Is Now
Purdy will be much better this week because he is playing the No. 32 pass defense that has allowed countless big plays and the most touchdown passes (33) in the NFL this year. The Commanders fired defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio after Thanksgiving, but it has not fixed anything. They still have communication breakdowns, and they still leave prominent wideouts wide open deep down the field.
The 49ers already scheme receivers open with the best of them, so this could be a nightmare matchup for the Commanders. Purdy has passed for over 258.5 yards in 8-of-15 games this year. He had 234 yards against Washington last December, though he only threw 22 passes in that game and Deebo Samuel was inactive for it.
The Pick
There is a reason to think this game might be less of a blowout now that Jacoby Brissett is starting at quarterback over Sam Howell for Washington. Howell was absolutely dreadful the last few weeks, and Brissett was inserted in the last 2 games and instantly led multiple touchdown drives.
Brissett may not fare as well as the starter against a proud San Francisco defense, but he shouldn’t get blown out as badly as Howell would. That means more passing attempts for Purdy and hopefully more yards in what should be an excellent bounce-back game for this scoring juggernaut who just ran into a bad night against Baltimore.
NFL Pick: Brock Purdy Passing Yards Over 258.5 (-110) at Bet365
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