The NFL’s Week 7 schedule has a great Sunday lined up. We are looking at the clash between the Lions and Ravens in Baltimore, Maryland; Cooper Kupp feasting on the Pittsburgh secondary, Mac Jones’ last stand with New England, another chance for Patrick Mahomes to rip the heart out of Chargers’ fans, and a night game that better have a steady flow of touchdowns between the Dolphins and Eagles.
- Jahmyr Gibbs (DET) Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+120) at Bet365
- Cooper Kupp (LAR) Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+102) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Mac Jones (NE) Under 193.5 Passing Yards (-115) at BetRivers
- Patrick Mahomes (KC) Over 274.5 Passing Yards (-115) at BetRivers
- Jaylen Waddle (MIA) Over 60.5 Receiving Yards (-117) at Caesars Sportsbook
Sunday, October 22, 2023 – 01:00 PM EDT at M&T Bank Stadium
Jahmyr Gibbs (Detroit Lions)
This is a big game for both teams, and we expect it to be physical and close. The Lions have a chance to start showing us why they drafted running back Jahmyr Gibbs with the No. 12 pick despite signing David Montgomery to be their workhorse in March.
So far this season, Montgomery has handled the majority of touches in this offense, and his rushing success rate (55.3%) is much better than what we’ve seen from Gibbs (35.9%).
But Montgomery was injured last week against Tampa Bay, Gibbs was already inactive, and the Lions had little running game to lean on. This week, Gibbs will start in place of Montgomery like he did in Week 3 in Atlanta when he had 17 carries for 80 yards, his biggest rushing game this season.
The Ravens have only allowed 1 rushing touchdown this season, but the Lions have a great argument that they are the best offense this defense will have faced yet. The Ravens played C.J. Stroud in his first NFL game in Week 1 before the rookie looked comfortable for Houston. The Bengals were awful in September, the Steelers have been awful on offense since 2021, and it’s not like the Titans in London with an injured Ryan Tannehill were going to light up this defense.
Detroit brings a legitimate passing game with Jared Goff having another fine season, and you can count on this team moving the ball into the red zone for a few opportunities for touchdowns in this game.
When the Lions get into scoring range, they know what to do with the ball. Last year, running back Jamaal Williams scored 17 touchdowns and most were from inside the 3-yard line. This year, Montgomery was filling that role as he already has 6 rushing touchdowns in the 5 games he played.
But with Montgomery out, this is Gibbs’ big opportunity to shine. Gibbs is second on the team with 53 touches this year, but he is the only Lion out of 8 players with at least 16 touches to not score a touchdown yet. That ends this week and Gibbs scores his first NFL touchdown.
Sunday, October 22, 2023 – 04:05 PM EDT at SoFi Stadium
Cooper Kupp (Los Angeles Rams)
It wasn’t long before Cooper Kupp caught his first touchdown of 2023. He only needed a 2nd game to do it after having 118 yards against the Eagles and 148 yards against the Cardinals.
Kupp has scored 24 touchdowns in his last 28 regular-season games, and he is always open. Add in his playoff run in 2021, and he has scored 30 touchdowns in his last 32 games.
Kupp will look to add his name to this list of impressive games by No. 1 wide receivers against Pittsburgh this season:
- Brandon Aiyuk, 49ers, Week 1: Caught 8-of-8 targets for 129 yards and 2 touchdowns
- Davante Adams, Raiders, Week 3: Caught 13-of-20 targets for 172 yards and 2 touchdowns
- Nico Collins, Texans, Week 4: Caught 7-of-9 targets for 168 yards and 2 touchdowns
The scary part is Kupp is arguably better than all those receivers right now. He should have a field day with this defense.
While Matthew Stafford is not throwing many touchdowns this year, the Rams have an uncertain backfield situation this week, and the Pittsburgh defense is not going to have answers for Kupp, who is a great weapon in the red zone too.
Play his over in yards if you want too, but we’ll bank on Kupp to score a touchdown in back-to-back games and approach some of those huge numbers other receivers had against Pittsburgh already.
Sunday, October 22, 2023 – 01:00 PM EDT at Gillette Stadium
Mac Jones (New England Patriots)
The Patriots are 1-5, they average a pathetic 12 points per game, and their next opponents are Buffalo and Miami. With a 1-7 start looming, we could be down to the final 1-to-8 quarters of the Mac Jones era in New England.
We’ll take our chances that it happens this week against the better defensive team as Buffalo has already won 3 games by 28-plus points this year. Bill Belichick has already shown last year and this year that he is not afraid to bench Jones during a game.
The Patriots have also been hyping up rookie quarterback Malik Cunningham, who played 6 offensive snaps in Vegas last week, taking a sack in the process. Cunningham would offer the offense something different than Jones in the form of mobility. So, if a play breaks down, maybe he can make something happen instead of just creating an awful turnover.
Jones getting pulled for Cunningham against Buffalo or Miami is too realistic to pass up the opportunity to bet his under and get an easy win. We’ll pick the team that plays better defense, and even though Buffalo has suffered a lot of big injuries on that side of the ball, the Bills still held the Giants to 9 points last week.
Jones has failed to crack 150 yards against the Cowboys and Saints this year, and those defenses are close to the level that Buffalo can play at even with injuries.
Benched or not, this should not be a good game for Jones again. We’ll take the under and expect change to be coming soon with the Patriots at quarterback.
Sunday, October 22, 2023 – 04:25 PM EDT at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Patrick Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs)
Patrick Mahomes is having an odd season for the Chiefs as he remains right in the mix for the MVP, but he is off to his weakest statistical start to a season. If the season ended today, Mahomes would set career worsts in touchdown pass rate (4.9%), interception rate (2.2%), passing success rate (50.0%), yards per attempt (7.1), passing yards per game (265.5), and passer rating (95.7).
However, the Chiefs are 5-1 with a great defense, the offense is still top 8 in most categories, and Mahomes has the lowest sack rate in the league (2.6%) as he looks to figure out this new offense with Travis Kelce and a cast of young wide receivers.
Mahomes has passed for 306 and 281 yards in his last games, and the Chargers may be the right kind of defense he needs to see right now. The Chargers allow a league-worst 317.8 passing yards per game this season.
Mahomes always seems to nip the Chargers in the 4th quarter in these exciting games with Justin Herbert doing his best on the other side. This is a big chance for the Chiefs to take a commanding lead in the division, and they had some extra days to prepare for this one while the Chargers played on Monday night.
Not only do the Chargers allow a lot of yards, but they give up big plays. Quarterbacks average 8.5 yards per pass against this defense. Mahomes should be very good in this game and will top 275 passing yards to hit his over for your NFL picks.
NFL Pick: Patrick Mahomes Over 274.5 Passing Yards (-115) at BetRivers
Sunday, October 22, 2023 – 08:20 PM EDT at Lincoln Financial Field
Jaylen Waddle (Miami Dolphins)
In a game with great No. 1 wide receivers doing historic things in A.J. Brown and Tyreek Hill, this might be a solid night for the No. 2 wide receivers as these defenses pay extra attention to those superstars.
Originally, DeVonta Smith was going to be the pick here, but injury has him questionable, so Jaylen Waddle for Miami it is. Lost in all the big plays and scoring for Miami is that Waddle has not really gotten off to a great start with his quarterback this year.
Waddle has missed a game after a concussion, but in his 5 games played, he is averaging 59.2 yards, which is below his rookie average (63.4) and well below his 2022 average (79.8) when he had to share the ball with Hill, who is on pace to shatter the single-season receiving yardage record.
Waddle has scored a touchdown in back-to-back games, but he has not had more than 51 yards in a game since before the concussion when he had 78 and 86 yards on the road against the Chargers and Patriots.
The Eagles are not as great defensively as they were a year ago, and it seems unlikely that Hill will hog all the yards again this week. This is a big step up in competition for the Dolphins, who are not playing the Giants or Panthers this week.
With the game expected to be a shootout, Waddle should be a strong choice to have a big night and hit his over. In case you were still uncertain, it is worth noting that some other secondary receivers like Jordan Addison (72) and Puka Nacua (71) both cracked 70 yards as rookies against this defense.
The Dolphins are the best offense in the NFL this year and they should put on a show in this one. Take the overs and enjoy the game.
NFL Pick: Jaylen Waddle Over 60.5 Receiving Yards (-117) at Caesars Sportsbook
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