It’s a getaway day for most teams in the MLB. Therefore, we’ve only got three games in the nighttime. I’ve added three-player props from those three games and feel confident. Here are my three player props for tonight.
Picks Summary
- Luke Raley Over 1.5 Total Bases (+145) at Bet365
- Marcus Stroman Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+117) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Chas McCormick Over 1.5 Total Bases (+155) at Bet365
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Thursday, July 20, 2023 – 06:40 PM EDT at Tropicana Field
Kyle Gibson will take the hill for the Orioles tonight. He’s had plenty of success this season. However, lefties are hitting a .175 ISO and wOBA of .346 against him this season. In the last month. Gibson has allowed a .189 ISO and wOBA of .378 to lefties.
There are ways to attack Gibson. Gibson has allowed 59.4% of hard contact to lefties in the last 30 days while also giving up 28.1% of fly balls and 25% of line drives. He’s also earned just 14.6% of strikeouts against lefties in that time.
Meanwhile, Luke Raley will likely bat third in the Tampa Bay Rays lineup tonight. He’s hit a .279 ISO and wOBA of .411 against his last 50 right-handed pitchers. Raley has slugged 29% of fly balls and line drives and has hit 54.8% of hard contact in the last 30 days against righties. The left-handed slugger also has a .357 BABIP, an above-average number.
Let’s back Luke Raley to earn at least two total bases in tonight’s matchup.
MLB Pick: Luke Raley Over 1.5 Total Bases (+145) at Bet365
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs
Thursday, July 20, 2023 – 08:05 PM EDT at Wrigley Field
Marcus Stroman will get another start for the Cubs tonight. He’s struck out 21.6% of batters this season and 21.5% in the last month. That’s not a high rate of strikeouts. Instead, he’s earning over 53% of ground balls and keeping fly balls down to 12.5% in the last month.
Stroman will face a Cardinals lineup that has combined to strike out just 18.4% of the time against righties in the last month. This lineup features seven batters striking out 20% fewer times against righties in the last 30 days.
Stroman has averaged a below-average whiff and swinging-strike percentage and will likely earn a high rate of ground balls against a Cardinals lineup, with six batters hitting grounders at least 44.8% of the time against righties.
Don’t be surprised if Stroman still goes six or seven innings, but he won’t get a high strikeout rate against this Cardinals lineup. Plus, the Cardinals are kind of peaking right now. They’ve been on a long winning streak, which should help their confidence with putting the ball in play against Stroman, who is more of a ground-ball pitcher.
Let’s back Stroman to go Under his strikeout total of 4.5 at plus money.
MLB Pick: Marcus Stroman Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+117) at Caesars Sportsbook
Houston Astros vs. Oakland Athletics
Thursday, July 20, 2023 – 09:40 PM EDT at Oakland Coliseum
Oakland is already making moves before the Trade Deadline. They’re in shambles. Hogan Harris will take the hill for the Athletics tonight. He’s a lefty who has allowed a .258 ISO and wOBA of .447 to his last 75 batters.
Righties are hitting a .308 ISO and wOBA of .467 over the last month against Harris. They’ve also hit a .188 ISO and wOBA of .335 this season against Harris. The Astros haven’t had a ton of success offensively against lefties when it comes to power, but the one guy who has come around is Chas McCormick. He’s hit a .250 ISO and wOBA of .412 against his last 18 lefties faced.
McCormick has struck out at a high rate, but he’s also hit 30% of fly balls and line drives with just 20% of ground balls and 40% of hard contact against lefties in the last 30 days.
Meanwhile, Harris has struck out just 19.5% of righties this season. Therefore, McCormick has a higher chance of putting the ball in play and not getting beat for a strikeout. McCormick will be batting in the middle of the lineup for the Astros tonight. He’s hit a 10% barrel percentage in the last month against righties. He’s also hit a BABIP of .444, which is incredibly high. That’s due to his high hard-hit rate, line drive, and fly ball percentages.
Let’s back McCormick to earn at least two total bases in tonight’s game against Hogan Harris and the Athletics.
MLB Pick: Chas McCormick Over 1.5 Total Bases (+155) at Bet365
