Monday night will feature MLB’s annual Home Run Derby held at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. There are a few new wrinkles to this year’s batting barrage, and after reviewing the odds and making our MLB picks today at the industry’s top-rated sportsbooks, we have identified our choice to take home the hardware.
MLB Picks Today At-a-Glance
Monday’s best baseball bet is all about the Home Run Derby. It should be noted that the league has decided to throw out the timers and the outs, replacing them with a total of 20 swings in the opening round, with ties being broken by the longest home run. In the second and final rounds, each contestant will get 15 swings, and if the final swing is a dinger, that player will continue to hit until he fails to hit a home run.
After reviewing the eight contestants and checking out the Home Run Derby odds at all of the best mobile sportsbooks right here at OddsTrader, we have made our MLB picks on this prelude to the Midsummer Classic.
Home Run Derby Details
- Venue: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia
- Start Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
- Streaming: Netflix
- Prize Pool: $2.5 million, with the winner taking home $1 million
The Great Eight
Kyle Schwarber (Phillies, +330)
Schwarber enters as the favorite for good reason. He leads the majors in home runs and has one of the most naturally effortless left-handed swings in baseball. Citizens Bank Park is his home field, so he knows exactly how the ball carries to every part of the yard. Schwarber also has Home Run Derby experience after reaching the 2018 final and competing again in 2022. If he establishes a rhythm early, few hitters can match his combination of raw power and consistency. Home-field familiarity makes him the man to beat.
Junior Caminero (Rays, +450)
Caminero already proved he belongs on this stage by finishing runner-up in last year’s Home Run Derby. His blazing bat speed allows him to hit towering home runs without appearing to overswing, an important trait in the Home Run Derby format. He generates elite exit velocities and can string together long stretches of consecutive home runs once he settles into a groove. At just 23 years old, his stamina is another advantage. If he improves on last year’s performance, he has every tool needed to leave Philadelphia with the trophy.
Jac Caglianone (Royals, +525)
Caglianone may be one of the biggest wild cards in the field, but his raw power is staggering. Few players hit baseballs as far or as often as the Royals rookie, and his average home run distance ranks near the top of the majors. His collegiate power was legendary, and he’s already flashed that same strength in the big leagues. The Derby rewards pure power as much as season-long production. If he stays relaxed and finds an early rhythm, he has the ability to launch some of the night’s longest home runs.
Munetaka Murakami (White Sox, +550)
Murakami has quickly shown why he was one of Japan’s most feared sluggers before coming to MLB. Despite missing time with a hamstring injury, he entered the Derby with 20 home runs in just 57 games. His combination of elite barrel rate and tremendous raw power makes him a dangerous tournament player. Murakami can drive the ball to all fields, which gives him an advantage as he does not rely on one spot on the field. If his timing is sharp, he has enough power to upset everyone.
Jordan Walker (Cardinals, +600)
Walker has finally turned his enormous physical tools into consistent production. Standing 6-foot-6 with exceptional bat speed, he generates effortless power that translates well to batting practice. He doesn’t need to sell out for distance, allowing him to conserve energy through multiple rounds. His breakout season has restored confidence, and the Derby often rewards players enjoying their best offensive stretch. If Walker avoids exerting maximum effort on every swing, his natural strength gives him a legitimate chance to reach the finals and possibly win it all.
Bryce Harper (Phillies, +850)
Harper has already won a Home Run Derby once, taking the title in dramatic fashion in 2018. Returning to Citizens Bank Park gives him another emotional boost, as he’ll be hitting in front of the home crowd. Harper’s left-handed swing is built for the ballpark’s inviting right-field seats, and his experience handling the Derby’s unique pace could prove valuable. His odds are longer than some younger sluggers, but few participants have his combination of power, composure, and big-event experience.
Ben Rice (Yankees, +1000)
Rice has emerged as one of baseball’s breakout power hitters and quietly possesses the kind of swing that fits the Derby format. His compact left-handed stroke creates loft naturally, allowing him to pile up home runs without exhausting himself. While he lacks Derby experience, his swing generates plenty of pull-side power, and he has shown the ability to hit balls deep into the seats. As one of the longer shots in the field, Rice offers intriguing value if he catches fire during the opening round.
Willson Contreras (Red Sox, +1200)
Contreras is the biggest long shot on the board, but dismissing him would be a mistake. Boston’s stocky first baseman has enormous power and thrives in showcase events. Unlike many participants, he has years of experience handling pressure on baseball’s biggest stages. His aggressive approach can work well in the Derby if he settles into a rhythm with his pitcher. At 12-to-1 odds, Contreras doesn’t need to be the most likely winner to offer betting value—he simply needs one hot night of uninterrupted power.
And the Winner Is…
Kyle Schwarber is the easy choice, but is he the best choice? I would like to get more bang for our betting buck on this competition, and I think we found it in Jordan Walker at odds of +600. This man is a specimen, and he’s finally getting his chance to shine as a critical member of the Cardinals’ lineup.
Let’s also be aware of the latest odds at the best sportsbooks for real-time betting because we want to exploit any advantages as they arise. After reviewing the MLB odds at OddsTrader and considering the game analysis from my fellow MLB handicappers, let’s watch the 24-year-old do the most damage on Monday night.
Expert MLB Pick: Jordan Walker (+600) at BetOnline
What We’ve Covered and Next Steps
The MLB picks I posted today have specific odds, but they don’t remain stagnant forever. Odds, run lines, and totals are dynamic; therefore, the moneylines on each of the Home Run Derby contestants may not be available by game time.
This means it is essential that you obtain the sharpest line available, and the only way to do that is to immediately wager on your preferred games and ensure you have an active account.
That’s right: make sure your account is funded, and perhaps get accounts at two or more sportsbooks so you can compare the numbers. But the key is to bet at a sportsbook you trust and with the best lines or odds available.
Tips for MLB Picks
- Pounce on the early lines before they change.
- Make sure you manage your bankroll.
- Assign the same wager amount to each of your MLB picks.
- Shop for odds and lines at all the most trustworthy and reliable sportsbooks right here at OddsTrader.
Responsible Gaming
It’s important to approach betting responsibly. Follow these tips to help manage your play:
- Bankroll management is essential; set a limit and stick to it regardless of the outcomes.
- Chasing losses is a recipe for disaster. Bet with your mind, not your emotions.
- Sports betting discipline allows you to maintain a strategy and not deviate depending on the results.
- Small sample sizes can be misleading. Consider the big picture and wager accordingly.
- Responsible gaming tools are available; don’t hesitate to use them.
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
