The Stanley Cup Playoffs are the most unpredictable postseasons in professional sports. We see countless upsets each year. Unlike other major sports leagues, where top seeds often dominate deep into the playoffs, that doesn’t happen as often in hockey. Heavy favorites are sent packing early. Underdogs go on extended runs. Elite offenses are neutered by hot goaltending. Series that appear lopsided on paper often go the distance to seven games.
This creates betting opportunities, where we can find value on underdogs, specifically undervalued teams on red-hot runs. Read on to find a comprehensive breakdown of Stanley Cup betting trends, followed by an analysis of each first-round series. If you don’t have a sportsbook for your post-season NHL action, check out one of our top reviewed online sportsbooks to get started today.
2026 Stanley Cup Odds Snapshot
Understanding how the market is pricing each team is the first step in evaluating value. The following table provides a snapshot of current championship odds heading into the playoffs.
| Team | Stanley Cup Odds |
| Colorado Avalanche | +300 |
| Tampa Bay Lightning | +450 |
| Carolina Hurricanes | +475 |
| Dallas Stars | +950 |
| Vegas Golden Knights | +1200 |
| Edmonton Oilers | +1200 |
| Buffalo Sabres | +1700 |
| Ottawa Senators | +1800 |
| Minnesota Wild | +1800 |
| Utah Mammoth | +2500 |
| Pittsburgh Penguins | +2500 |
| Montreal Canadiens | +2500 |
| Anaheim Ducks | +5000 |
| Boston Bruins | +6000 |
| Los Angeles Kings | +9000 |
| Philadelphia Flyers | +15000 |
The Full First-Round Bracket
Eastern Conference
| Matchup | Regular Season | Series Probability |
| Buffalo Sabres vs. Boston Bruins | BUF 1-3 BOS | BUF 62% / BOS 38% |
| Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Montreal Canadiens | TBL 2-2 MTL | TBL 56% / MTL 44% |
| Carolina Hurricanes vs. Ottawa Senators | CAR 2-1 OTT | CAR 64% / OTT 36% |
| Philadelphia Flyers vs. Pittsburgh Penguins | PHI 2-2 PIT | PIT 61% / PHI 39% |
Western Conference
| Matchup | Regular Season | Series Probability |
| Colorado Avalanche vs. Los Angeles Kings | COL 3-0 | COL 83% / LAK 17% |
| Dallas Stars vs. Minnesota Wild | DAL 2–2 MIN | DAL 56% / MIN 44% |
| Edmonton Oilers vs. Anaheim Ducks | EDM 2-1 ANA | EDM 68% / ANA 32% |
| Vegas Golden Knights vs. Utah Mammoth | UTA 2-1 VGK | VGK 63% / UTA 37% |
Historical Stanley Cup Playoff Betting Trends
Trend 1: The Presidents’ Trophy Is Not a Reliable Indicator
The curse is real. While winning the Presidents’ Trophy means that you are the best team over 82 games, it does not translate into consistent postseason success.
Only eight NHL teams have won both the Presidents’ Trophy and the Stanley Cup in the same season since the award was introduced in 1986.
Here’s a quick look at how these teams have done in the last three years:
- 2025: Winnipeg Jets (lost in Western Conference Semifinals)
- 2024: New York Rangers (lost in Eastern Conference Final)
- 2023: Boston Bruins (lost in Eastern Conference Quarterfinals)
The Bruins (2023), Lightning (2019), and Canucks (2012) lost in the first round. Six of the last seven Presidents’ Trophy winners failed to get past the second round.
The recent struggles can be explained by the smaller sample that we get in the playoffs, where anything can happen.
In the regular season, depth, consistency, and offensive production are key drivers of success. In the playoffs, however, the game slows down. Defensive structure tightens. Special teams become even more important. And goaltending often determines outcomes.
For 2026, this trend can apply to the Avalanche, who won the Presidents’ Trophy. While the Avalanche are clearly the strongest team in the field, we’ve seen Presidents’ Trophy winners fall short of expectations quite often.
From a betting perspective, this creates a critical question: is it worth it to lay the chalk with the Avs?
The path is going to be tough, unlike typical Presidents’ Trophy winners. Colorado would have to face the winner of the Stars vs Wild matchup in the second round. Dallas and Minnesota are two of the best teams in the NHL, so the Avs can easily get eliminated there. To that end, it may be worth a look to fade the Avs in this year’s postseason.
Trend 2: First-Round Upsets Are Built Into the Format
The NHL playoffs always have more than its fair share of first-round upsets. Unlike other leagues where top seeds often cruise through early rounds, hockey consistently produces upsets.
Since the current playoff structure was introduced, it has become common for at least two lower-seeded teams to advance each year. In some seasons, the number of upsets has been even higher, with as many as six of eight series going against the higher seed.
| Season | First-Round Upsets |
| 2024-25 | 2 |
| 2023-24 | 3 |
| 2022-23 | 2 |
| 2021-22 | 2 |
| 2020-21 | 4 |
| 2019-20 | 2 |
| 2018-19 | 6 |
There are a few reasons why playoff hockey is so hard to predict. First off, the teams in the league are actually pretty evenly matched, so the difference between a top-ranked team and a lower-ranked team isn’t as big as the standings make it look.
Plus, playoff games are much more physical and defensive, which usually leads to really close scores where anything can happen.
On top of that, a goalie on a hot streak can completely flip the script. We’ve seen goalies basically win a whole series all by themselves.
Just think back to when Jean-Sebastian Giguere played out of his mind and helped the Anaheim Ducks shock everyone by sweeping the Detroit Red Wings on their way to the Stanley Cup Finals.
If you’re betting on the games, the lesson is simple: don’t count out the underdogs. You’re usually better off mixing in some smart bets on the lower-ranked teams instead of just picking the favorites every single time.
Trend 3: Home Ice Advantage Is Overpriced
Everyone talks about home-field advantage in sports betting, but in the NHL playoffs, it’s really not as big of a deal as people make it out to be.
Sure, the home team wins a little more often, but the difference isn’t huge. The bigger issue is that sportsbooks usually overprice the home team, especially if you’re just picking who will win straight up.
Essentially, playing at home helps a bit, but not enough to pay the extra cost the betting sites charge. If you just bet on the home team every time, you’re paying a premium. You’re much better off looking for those really close matchups where everyone is putting way too much weight on who happens to have home ice.
With that in mind, the main takeaway here is to not lay too much juice just because of home-field advantage. There could be opportunities to find value on the road underdogs.
Trend 4: Underdogs Dominate the Puck Line
The puck line can be a way to exploit the NHL playoffs.
Because playoff games tend to be low-scoring and tightly contested, a large percentage of matchups are decided by a single goal. This dynamic heavily favors underdogs receiving +1.5 goals.
You often see more overtime games in the playoffs, which also bodes well for +1.5 picks.
This creates a situation where even losing bets on the moneyline can still be profitable on the spread.
However, remember that teams will pull their goalies when down by one with considerable time left on the clock. That could result in an easy goal to extend their lead to two, hurting you on the +1.5 puckline.
To that end, don’t just blindly bet on puck line underdogs (+1.5). Make sure that the price is right. Don’t lay too much juice.
I recommend finding an underdog you like to win outright. Bet about 0.5 units on the moneyline, then a full unit on the puck line, to cover yourself if they only lose by one goal.
Trend 5: Goaltending Is the Ultimate X-Factor
Nothing makes a bigger difference in the NHL playoffs than the guy in the net. Sure, scoring goals and playing good defense are important, but an amazing goalie can turn a completely average team into a real threat. On the flip side, a shaky goalie can easily sink a team loaded with superstars.
The tricky part for anyone betting on these games is that goalies can be incredibly unpredictable. How a goalie played during the regular season doesn’t always matter once the playoffs start, and who is hot right now is way more important than their long-term track record.
There are tons of stories in NHL history of goalies catching fire at exactly the right time and putting the team on their back. Just look at when Matt Murray stepped in for Marc-Andre Fleury, or when Adin Hill practically came out of nowhere to lead the Vegas Golden Knights on a deep run.
If you’re putting money on the games, this means you absolutely have to pay attention to the goalie matchups. Always focus on how they’ve been playing lately, backing the goalie with the hot hand is usually your best bet.
Trend 6: Conference Strength Influences Outcomes
Remember, strength of schedule does make a difference. This is something that can hurt the Avalanche in this year’s postseason.
The top-three teams in the Western Conference are all from the Central Division. Despite that, they’ll each face each other in the first two rounds.
That means that if the Avs get past the first round, they’ll have to face the Stars or the Wild. On the other hand, other teams in the West, like the Golden Knights, have a much easier path, since none of the teams in their division even got to 100 points.
This helps the Hurricanes as well, since they’ll get to face the Senators and then the Flyers or Penguins. Meanwhile, the Atlantic Division includes tougher teams, like the Sabres, Lightning, and Canadiens.
Just picture the Sabres and Lightning in a grueling, seven-game series, only for the winner to take on a Canes squad that swept their way to the Conference Finals. It’s a legitimate possibility, one that could swing matchups in their favor.
Trend 7: Coaching Changes Add Uncertainty
Teams that undergo coaching changes late in the season are among the most difficult to evaluate in the playoffs.
In some cases, a new coach can provide a spark that leads to improved performance. We’ve started to see this with both the Golden Knights and the Kings.
Vegas has gone 7-0-1 since replacing Bruce Cassidy with John Tortorella. Meanwhile, Los Angeles is 11-5-6 since firing Jim Hiller and hiring D.J. Smith.
This can be interesting because the Kings could be live dogs against whoever they meet in the playoffs, whether that’s the Oilers or the Avalanche.
Meanwhile, the Golden Knights, who had previously been underachieving, can be viewed as Stanley Cup dark horses with this recent surge under Tortorella.
Trend 8: Regular-Season Results Rarely Predict Playoff Outcomes
One of the most common mistakes in NHL betting is placing too much emphasis on regular-season head-to-head results.
While these games provide some context, they do not account for the adjustments, intensity, and physicality that define playoff hockey.
Teams often approach postseason matchups with different strategies, and the dynamics of a best-of-seven series can differ significantly from individual regular-season games.
Series-by-Series Betting Breakdown
Buffalo Sabres vs. Boston Bruins
The Sabres went on a remarkable run this year. Since December 9th, they’ve gone 39-9-5, good for the best record in the NHL.
It’s a deep group of forwards, led by Tage Thompson, with a stud defenseman in Rasmus Dahlin anchoring the blue line.
While the Bruins had a nice year, they’re in a tough spot against the red-hot Sabres. Buffalo is my pick to win the Stanley Cup.
Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Montreal Canadiens
This is going to be an incredible series. The Lightning have been one of the best teams in the NHL all year, but the Habs had a terrific late-season surge, going 12-4-0 in their last 16 games.
While the Lightning have the slight edge due to experience, the young Canadiens can cause problems for them.
It wouldn’t surprise me to see Cole Caufield and Nick Suzuki lead this group to an upset.
Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Philadelphia Flyers
The battle of Pennsylvania resumes once again, with the young Flyers taking on the veteran Penguins.
No one expected either of these teams to make the playoffs this year, so we could see an interesting matchup here.
I lean towards the Penguins getting this done in six games.
Carolina Hurricanes vs. Ottawa Senators
The Hurricanes are heavily favored in this series, but the Sens should not be taken lightly.
This team went on a 14-5-2 run to finish the season. They’re a balanced team led by Tim Stutzle and Brady Tkachuk.
This is another series that could go longer than expected.
Dallas Stars vs. Minnesota Wild
The two best teams in the Western Conference have the toughest matchup in the first round. Each of these squads has what it takes to win the Stanley Cup.
The Wild really took their game to the next level after they acquired Quinn Hughes. But the Stars have more postseason experience.
I’m going with Dallas to get this one done in six games.
Colorado Avalanche vs. Los Angeles Kings
The Presidents’ Trophy-winning Avalanche are heavily favored against the Kings, but we can’t count out Los Angeles in Anze Kopitar’s final season, especially since they’ve played better since the coaching change.
While it’s hard to see the Kings slowing down the likes of MacKinnon and Makar, it wouldn’t surprise me to see them to a scare into the Avalanche.
I’ll take the Avs to win this one in six.
Edmonton Oilers vs. Anaheim Ducks
This is a matchup of experience vs. youth. The Oilers are coming off back-to-back Stanley Cup Finals losses to the Panthers.
Even though Edmonton has been underwhelming all year, there’s still the chance that they can turn it on for the playoffs.
Look for the Oilers to get this one done in five games.
Las Vegas Golden Knights vs. Utah Mammoth
One angle that I love to target in the playoffs is on a previously underachieving team that has taken off since firing their head coach.
That’s exactly what the Golden Knights are under John Tortorella.
Bet on them to build on this hot streak with a six-game series win over the Mammoth.
How to Bet the Stanley Cup Playoffs
Here are some tips on how to bet on the Stanley Cup Playoffs:
- Don’t overvalue home ice advantage
- Avoid laying too much juice on heavy favorites because upsets happen frequently
- Ride with a team that is coming in hot, like the Sabres
- If a goalie is hot, like Sergei Bobrovsky for the Panthers, ride with the streak
- Don’t go overboard with unders. Yes, the game tightens up, but sometimes, officiating is called similar to the season, resulting in several powerplays.
Following these tips can put you on the right path to profit in Stanley Cup betting.
