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NCAAF Pick: Tennessee Under 9.5 Wins (-180) at Caesars Sportsbook

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The Tennessee Volunteers had some massive wins last season. But with Hendon Hooker, Jalin Hyatt, and Cedric Tillman in the NFL, will Tennessee be the same?

Tennessee Volunteers Preview

The Tennessee Volunteers shocked the nation last season, going 11-2 overall in 2022. Tennessee finished 6-2 in SEC play and is now 18-8 head into Year 4 for Josh Heupel as head coach.

The Vols defeated Florida, Alabama, and LSU last season. The Vols also won the Orange Bowl last season. It was quite the season to remember for the Vols.

Tennessee had one of the best offenses in the nation last year, but they’ve lost a lot of offensive talent from last year, including Hendon Hooker, Jalin Hyatt, and Cedric Tillman.

But Tennessee believes they’ve got the right pieces to put together another massive run in the SEC.

Let’s break it all down below.

The Offense

The offense was led by Alex Golesh, the former offensive coordinator for Tennessee. Golesh is gone now. He’s the head coach of USF. Now they’ll have quarterbacks coach Joey Halzle take over the offensive coordinator position.

Tennessee still wants to do the same thing as last year, but they’ll rely on Joe Milton. Not Hendon Hooker. Milton has a whole lot of potential. He always has, but it didn’t work out in Michigan, and his accuracy was never good. His arm will make you gasp, but that accuracy needs to improve.

When Hendon Hooker was injured, Milton had his chances. He threw for ten touchdowns and had no interceptions with 971 yards passing. He also completed nearly 65% of passes last season.

The senior has improved drastically from his freshman season with Michigan. He’s also a capable runner and has had at least a 20+ yard run in four of five seasons, but this will be his first season as the confirmed starter. We’ll see if he wears out.

Don’t expect Milton to be nearly as good as Hooker. That’s going to be challenging, but the deep ball will be the main thing that should keep Tennessee happy. The offense added Bru McCoy from USC and still has Ramel Keyton, who added 18 yards per completion last season. They’ll also have Squirrel White and Dont’e Thornton from Oregon as receivers.

The offensive line for Tennessee could have been better, but Hooker got the ball out of his hands quickly, and the offense wore down the defense as each series went on. The run game will be fine, behind Jaylen Wright, Jabari Small, and Dylan Sampson all returning.

The Defense

Tennessee’s defense wasn’t like its offense. The defense allowed 63 points to South Carolina and 49 points to Alabama.

That loss to South Carolina was miserable for Tennessee, especially when Hooker went down with an injury. The defense couldn’t get any stops. They need to fix a lot of things. There were some glaring holes in that defense.

Still, the defense led the SEC in tackles for a loss and was solid against the run for the most part.

The secondary is the big question mark heading into this season. The secondary was weak when the pass rush didn’t get to the quarterback in time. Tamarion McDonald and Jaylen McCollough would be the two players in the secondary to watch. They also added Gabe Jeudy-Lally from BYU, who played for Vanderbilt before his stint with BYU.

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Tennessee Win Total

The hype is real for Tennessee. The Vols are expected to win 9.5 games, with the Under juiced to -180 at the betting odds. Are ten games too many?

The Vols will face Virginia to start the regular season. That should be a win to start the year at home. They’ll then take on Austin Peay. Chalk that up as another win.

At 2-0, Tennessee will face Florida on the road. That’s always a challenging environment, but Tennessee’s roster is night and day better than Florida’s. They’ll be 3-0 with a home game against UTSA. Make that 4-0 for Tennessee.

Next, Tennessee will face South Carolina at home. Luckily, this game is home, but I’d be a bit worried about facing South Carolina again. Tennessee’s first loss will take place against South Carolina.

I like the Vols’ chances at defeating Texas A&M at home, but they’ll lose to Alabama on the road.

They’d be 5-2 with a road game against Kentucky next. I like Tennessee in that matchup and think they’ll also beat UConn at home. They’d be 7-2 with a matchup against Missouri next. That’s a win. They’ll lose to Georgia but beat Vanderbilt.

Therefore, I’ve got Tennessee winning nine games this season at one of the top sportsbooks. That’s not enough to get Over 9.5 wins this season.

NCAAF Pick: Tennessee Under 9.5 Wins (-180) at Caesars Sportsbook

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