The NFL Wild Card schedule wraps up on Monday night with an interesting matchup in the AFC between the No. 5 Houston Texans (12-5) and No. 4 Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7). It’s Aaron Rodgers against the No. 1 defense in the NFL this year. It’s a Houston team on a 9-game winning streak trying to keep it rolling while Mike Tomlin is seeking his first playoff win since the 2016 season.
Let’s look at the current odds and preview this game with our NFL expert picks.
Best Bets for Houston Texans vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
For our best NFL Wild Card bets, we’re looking at the AFC finale on Monday night between the Texans and Steelers, who haven’t met since 2023. It’s a fascinating game because of how many streaks are on the line here:
- The Texans are 0-6 in road playoff games (0-2 in DeMeco Ryans era)
- The Steelers are 0-6 in Mike Tomlin’s last six playoff games.
- The Steelers have allowed at least 28 points in six straight playoff games (NFL record).
- The Steelers have won 23 straight home games on Monday nights (NFL record; last loss was 1991).
Some of these streaks must come to an end. The Steelers also are getting wideout D.K. Metcalf back from his 2-game suspension, which is a necessity for Rodgers to have success against this tough defense. The Texans are also deeper and healthier at wide receiver than they’ve been the last two postseasons, when it was all on Nico Collins to produce.
But it does figure to be a low-scoring grind, which could help the Steelers end their playoff win drought if it means they’re not falling behind by 21 points as they have in 6 straight playoff games.
Monday Night Odds (Steelers +3)
This Monday matchup has the Texans holding strong as a 3-point road favorite. Their defense has been the best all season, even when the team started 0-3. Houston and Pittsburgh are both 9-8 ATS this year, but the Texans have outperformed the spread by an average of 4.3 points while Pittsburgh is just 0.7 points above the line. Pittsburgh is 2-2 ATS as a home underdog this season but 9-6-1 ATS in that split since 2022.
The total is 39.5 points, which is easily the lowest for all NFL Wild Card games this week. The over was just 6-10-1 in all Houston games, tied for the third lowest this year. However, the stunning stat is that the Texans have held every road opponent to 17 points or fewer except for Seattle. But Rodgers is a playoff veteran, and the Steelers have scored at least 26 points in 6-of-8 games to end 2025. Combine that fact with Tomlin’s historic playoff woes on defense, and the total going under could very well be a trap pick.
Monday Night Picks (Steelers +3)
For this game’s prediction, we are rolling the dice a little and backing the Steelers to cover at home. Rodgers faced the Texans with the Jets last year and figured them out in the second half with 3 touchdown passes in a comeback win. He has the fastest release time of any quarterback in 2025, which can help negate the pass rush, and he has Metcalf, Calvin Austin, and more weapons to throw to, except for Darnell Washington (broken arm).
The Steelers generate the most YAC over expected of any passing game, so Rodgers can survive this defense by getting the ball out quickly to the backs and avoiding nuking drives with sacks. Then it just comes down to his defense, which has risen to the occasion with splash plays to hold back elite offenses this year, like the Colts, Lions, and Patriots.
Houston is not an elite offense by any stretch. The running game is mediocre at best, and C.J. Stroud can be prone to sacks. The Steelers got T.J. Watt back last week, and he had an interception. It’s long past time he helps this team win a playoff game, which would be the first in his career.
Expert Pick: Steelers +3 (-108) at Heritage Sports
Texans’ Dalton Schultz (Over 41.5 Receiving Yards)
For NFL player props from this game, we like Houston tight end Dalton Schultz to go over 41.5 receiving yards. It’s a line he’s gone over in 8 of 17 games this season, including 73 yards last week against the Colts. Schultz is second on the Texans with 777 receiving yards and is a reliable target for Stroud, especially when the team is behind as his two biggest yardage games came in losses to Seattle (98) and Denver (77).
The Steelers have allowed the 5th-most yards to tight ends (1,121) this season, including 11 touchdowns, tied for the fourth most. In two road playoff games the last two years, Schultz had 43 yards at Baltimore and 63 yards at Kansas City last year.
It may be an easy call to pick Nico Collins to go off against the Steelers, but Schultz is the value pick here as he could eat up a lot of the underneath routes against a defense that has lapses in coverage.
Expert Pick: Dalton Schultz Over 41.5 Receiving Yards (-118) at Bovada
Your NFL Monday Betting Game Plan
For your NFL Monday bets, our featured game is Houston against the Steelers. We like the Steelers to cover the 3-point spread while allowing Houston tight end Dalton Schultz to go over 41.5 receiving yards.
Timing is crucial for sports betting success. You could follow the line movement this week to make sure you are getting the best lines possible. One way you can save time doing this is by keeping an eye on the live NFL odds, which will show you the current odds and lines at top-rated sportsbooks before making your NFL picks this postseason.
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