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Angels vs. Reds MLB Computer Pick: Reds Will Work Walks

Graham Ashcraft Cincinnati Reds Pennsylvania
Graham Ashcraft #51 of the Cincinnati Reds throws a pitch in the bottom of the first inning against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park on April 2, 2024 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Mitchell Leff/Getty Images/AFP

Today’s 16-game slate features many exciting games, including an interleague matchup between the Reds and Angels. Our computer model has shown us where the value is in this matchup.

For more of today’s betting analysis, check out:

MLB Pick


Los Angeles Angels vs. Cincinnati Reds

Saturday, April 20, 2024 – 06:40 PM ET at Great American Ball Park


The AI Model believes the Reds will win 5-4 over the Angels in tonight’s second game of the series. This makes sense, as the Reds are above .500, and the Angels are below .500 heading into this series.

Reds’ Walk Workmanship

The Cincinnati Reds haven’t shown much power against lefties since last season. The projected lineup has instead hit a .129 ISO and wOBA of .298, which isn’t very good. However, the top of the Reds’ lineup has walked at a very high rate against lefties. Six batters walk at least 8.2% of the time against lefties.

The Reds could do damage against Patrick Sandoval of the Angels in that area. Sandoval is a lefty who limits power, but he has also walked 11% of batters this season.

No Worries For Graham Ashcraft

The Reds will pitch Graham Ashcraft. He’s a righty who has a 2-1 record with a 4.15 ERA. Ashcraft isn’t elite, but he’s been terrific against right-handed batters this year.

He’s held righties to a .000 ISO and wOBA of .167, along with 56% of ground balls induced.

The Pick

The Angels should have at least six righties in the lineup against Ashcraft and the Reds. That’s not ideal when the Ashcraft pitching extremely well against righties this season.

Therefore, we’ll back the Reds at -130. The AI Model knows.

MLB Pick: Reds ML (-130) at Caesars Sportsbook

*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.

*21+ Seek help with a gambling addiction at 1-800-Gambler

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