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Orioles vs. Royals MLB Computer Pick: Which Ace Will Come Out on Top?

Corbin Burnes Baltimore Orioles Massachusetts
Corbin Burnes #39 of the Baltimore Orioles pitches the ball during the fifth inning of the home opener between the Boston Red Sox and the Baltimore Orioles at Fenway Park on April 09, 2024 in Boston, Massachusetts. Jaiden Tripi/Getty Images/AFP

There are some really fun spots for tonight’s MLB slate. Take a look at our MLB computer pick for the Orioles-Royals matchup for Game 1 of their series.

For more of today’s betting analysis, check out:

MLB Pick


Baltimore Orioles vs. Kansas City Royals

Saturday, April 20, 2024 – 07:10 PM ET at Kauffman Stadium


The AI Model has the Orioles earning a 5-3 victory over the Royals in a primetime showdown between two ace pitchers. With the Orioles at -135 on the moneyline and expected to win by two runs, we’ll back Baltimore in this one.

Pitching Showdown

The Orioles will pitch Corbin Burnes, who has a 2-0 record and a 2.28 ERA. Meanwhile, the Royals will roll with their ace pitcher, Cole Ragans, who has a 1.93 ERA. Except Ragans is 0-1 and hasn’t even had a win this year despite his efforts.

Trust The Orioles?

Burnes has held his first 93 batters to a .136 SO and wOBA of .256. He’s also struck out nearly 27% of batters and has limited walks to 4.3%. Ragans has struck out close to 30% of batters. However, he’s still allowed a .407 wOBA to lefties and has only struck out lefties 22.2% of the time, despite being a lefty.

Ragans will likely face a couple of lefties in the Baltimore lineup. However, the Orioles should still work out more walks and put pressure on Ragans, so he’d have to come out early.

The Pick

I’ll trust the veteran righty over the young lefty. The Orioles have been winning when Burnes is on the mound. Meanwhile, the Royals struggle to consistently put up runs for Ragans.

MLB Pick: Orioles ML (-135) at Caesars Sportsbook

*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.

*21+ Seek help with a gambling addiction at 1-800-Gambler

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