For this week’s top NFL predictions, we have NFL picks Week 9 on the biggest game (Chiefs vs. Bills) as well as some other key games this Sunday as we near the midpoint of the 2025 season.
NFL Picks Week 9 At-a-Glance
Our NFL picks for Week 9 include the Chiefs as a slight road favorite against the Bills in their annual AFC clash, the Colts try to hand the Steelers a 3rd-straight loss, and the Broncos get a tough test in Houston.
But let’s start with the big game between the Chiefs and Bills in Buffalo.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills (Bills +1.5)
We see this matchup every year at least once, but this time it feels different as neither the Chiefs nor Bills are a lock to win their divisions because of what the Patriots, Chargers, and Broncos are doing. It also may not be an AFC Championship Game preview because of the Colts (7-1). So, the Chiefs may feel less inclined to save some things for the playoff rematch as they often do if they don’t perceive Buffalo to be the main threat this year.
Because it has not been a great start for the Bills, who have looked bad in losses to the Patriots and Falcons, and they needed a 15-point comeback to beat the Ravens in Week 1. Ed Oliver is out on defense, the Chiefs have their full arsenal of receivers, and the defense has been stifling teams while Patrick Mahomes plays like the MVP again.
The Bills usually take care of the Chiefs in the regular season, but Mahomes is 18-6-1 ATS as a small favorite or underdog. We’re backing him and the Chiefs to cover on the road here.
Expert Pick: Chiefs -1.5 (-118) at BetMGM
Indianapolis Colts vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (Steelers +3)
The Steelers are not used to games like this, where they’re a home underdog and the total is over 50 points. In fact, this is only the 4th time that will happen in Mike Tomlin’s tenure since 2007. He’s 2-1 SU in those games and the under is 3-0. Each game was against Tom Brady and the Patriots, but right now, the 2025 Colts are producing like they’re the 2007 Patriots with the highest points per drive figure on record.
Guess which defense ranks 32nd in yards per drive allowed? Yep, the Steelers have been that bad, but maybe they can step up and get some pressure on Daniel Jones, who took 3 sacks last week. Throw in some November weather on a bad Pittsburgh field, and don’t forget that Lou Anarumo is the Colts’ defensive coordinator, who knows the Steelers well from Cincinnati.
We can’t trust the Steelers to win NFL games right now against teams like this, but the game might be ugly enough to keep the score under 50.5 points, which is why our top pick is the under.
Expert Pick: Under 50.5 (-110) at BetMGM
Houston Texans vs. Denver Broncos (Texans -1.5)
We get a matchup with a low total (O/U 40 points) as the Houston Texans have the No. 1 scoring defense despite their losing record. The Broncos (6-2) have been lighting up the scoreboard the last 5 quarters with 77 points, but let’s not forget this team beat the Jets 13-11 in London and were down 19-0 at home to the Giants. They also haven’t seen a defense this good this year.
Meanwhile, the Texans played very well against the 49ers last week, even without wide receiver Nico Collins. He could be back this Sunday, and the Broncos won’t have top corner Patrick Surtain II. Stroud passed for over 300 yards and 2 touchdowns with Collins, forcing him to utilize his other receivers better, which should bode well for this offense going forward.
We’re going to trust the Texans to play well defensively and for Stroud to deliver at home in a low-scoring win.
Expert Pick: Texans -1.5 (-110) at BetMGM
Place Your Week 9 NFL Bets Now!
For our NFL picks Week 9, our most anticipated game is Chiefs vs. Bills where we like the Chiefs to win their first close game of 2025. All of their wins have been by 13 points this year. We also recommend the Steelers and Colts to stay under 50.5 points, and we’re going to go with the Texans to stack wins over Denver.
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