Only four teams are remaining in the College Football Playoff, and there are only two games left on this season’s slate. This week’s college football picks feature the CFP semifinals, where we will see a battle in the Fiesta Bowl on Thursday night, followed by a Peach Bowl showdown on Friday night.
Without further ado, let’s review the lines and find the sharpest value on the board to include in our College Football Playoff picks for this week.
NCAAF CFP Semifinal Week At-A-Glance
Our best college football bets begin with the Fiesta Bowl on Thursday night, featuring the No. 10 Miami Hurricanes and No. 6 Ole Miss.
You may recall that Miami shocked one of the favorites to win the CFP this season, the reigning champion Ohio State Buckeyes, in the quarterfinals by the score of 24-14, not only covering as eight-point underdogs but also rendering a healthy return of +270 on the moneyline.
Friday night will feature another dandy as the high-flying fifth-ranked Oregon Ducks battle the Cinderella story of this college football season, the No. 1-seeded Indiana Hoosiers.
Let’s check out the College Football Playoff semifinal odds and begin with Thursday night’s Fiesta Bowl clash between Miami and Ole Miss.
Miami Hurricanes vs. Ole Miss Rebels (+3.5)
After considering the college football odds on this matchup between the Hurricanes vs. the Rebels, we find that Miami has moved up half a point from originally being installed as a field goal favorite to where the Hurricanes are now 3 ½ point neutral site chalk.
I’ll be honest: I don’t fully understand why Miami has been installed as the favorite in this one, and I definitely don’t know why the early money is favoring the Canes north of the magic number three. Yes, Miami has a superior run-stop unit, ranked fifth in rushing yards allowed, surrendering just 84 RYG.
And although Ole Miss has a decent ground game, ranked 36th, averaging 180.3 rushing yards per game, the Rebels live and breathe through the air, off the golden arm of Trinidad Chambliss, who lit up Georgia like a Christmas tree in his last performance, tossing for 362 yards and a pair of touchdowns.
I know people are talking about Miami’s elite turnover advantage, but it should be noted that Ole Miss QB Chambliss has only thrown three picks all season. Chambliss can also bootleg when he has to, as evidenced by his 520 rushing yards and eight rushing touchdowns.
This could very well be the most competitive game of the week, and if we take a look at the predicted score, we see that Miami is projected to secure a 29-27 decision. But I don’t see it that way, as the Ole Miss aerial attack is simply too explosive to be contained by what amounts to a middling Miami pass defense.
Expert Pick: Ole Miss +3 ½ (-110) at BetMGM
Oregon Ducks vs. Indiana Hoosiers (-4)
The Peach Bowl will determine whether Indiana continues on this most unlikely national championship journey or whether the clock turns midnight for Cinderella. The Hoosiers need no introduction to college football fans who have been following this team from a contender last season to a championship-caliber squad this year.
Head coach Curt Cignetti took over this team last year and has elevated them from the outhouse to the penthouse in just two seasons. But the journey is not over, as the Oregon Ducks are standing in their way of a date at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami on Monday, January 19th.
Although Indiana ended with a 13-0 record and a stunning Big Ten title victory over the reigning national champs from Ohio State, the Hoosiers didn’t rest on their laurels when they crushed Alabama, 38-3, in the second round of the CFP, moving to 14-0 on the season and 9-5 ATS.
Their opponents on Friday, the Oregon Ducks, enter this one with a 13-1 record after steamrolling James Madison, 51-34, in the first round of the CFP before shutting out No. 4 Texas Tech, 23-0, in the quarterfinal round.
In the interest of full disclosure, I have been doubting Indiana’s ability to continually win and cover the number throughout the season. But consider me convinced, and although laying four points against an offense like Oregon’s makes me swallow hard, no team has had an answer for the Hoosiers this season.
The predicted score projects this to be a tight one with Indiana eking out a 25-24 decision, but I see this as more reflective of the 10-point win the Hoosiers won in their previous meeting with the Ducks.
Expert Pick: Indiana -4 (-115) at Caesars
Place Your College Football Bowl Picks & How to Bet Smart This Week
The CFP semifinal college football picks posted today will not stay stagnant forever. Odds, point spreads, and totals are dynamic, which means the moneylines and point spreads you see here may not be around by gametime.
Therefore, it is important that you get the sharpest line available, and the only way to do that is to get down immediately on the games and make sure you have an active account at a reputable sportsbook.
That’s right, make certain your account is funded, and perhaps get accounts at two or more sportsbooks so you can compare the numbers. Make sure to get down at a place you trust and at the best lines or odds available.
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.