With 16 games on today’s slate, there are plenty of opportunities to add some value with MLB home run props today.
We’re also just about two weeks away from the MLB Playoffs arriving. There are still some fun races headed down to the wire to decide who will make the Playoffs and who won’t.
With that said, I’ve added three home run props today that you’ll want to consider. Let’s stay hot this week!
MLB Best Home Run Props Today
The best way to find value for home run props is by looking for pitchers who are struggling over the last 30 days, taking on hitters who have dominated over the last 30 days.
Below, I’ll go into major depth with all three picks so you understand exactly why the home run wager is valuable and a good decision.
Can We Hit At Least One Home Run Prop?
If you add three bets with odds of +300 or more at the reputable sportsbooks, all you need is one bet to hit to make a profit. That’s what we’ll be aiming for with my three best bets for MLB home run props today.
Julio Rodriguez to Hit a HR (+380) at Caesars
Julio Rodriguez has hit a .300 ISO and wOBA of .444 against his last 77 righties. He’s also struck out just 18.1% of the time.
Rodriguez has added 33.3% of line drives and 64.9% of hard contact against righties in the last month. He’s also earned a 12.3% barrel percentage.
Meanwhile, he’ll battle Michael Wacha of the Royals. Wacha, a righty, has allowed a .216 ISO and wOBA of .418 to his last 40 righties. The veteran righty has also allowed more fly balls than ground balls induced to righties.
Rodriguez’s numbers look good against Wacha’s.
Jackson Chourio to Hit a HR (+350) at BetMGM
The Los Angeles Angels will throw Caden Dana tonight. The young righty has allowed a .429 ISO and wOBA of .447 to his last 15 righties. He’s only faced 28 righties this season, but those righties have also hit a .417 ISO and wOBA of .497.
That should help Jackson Chourio tonight. He has earned a .233 ISO and wOBA of .385 against his last 49 righties. He’s also minimized strikeouts and has hit 62.2% of hard contact with a 16.2% barrel percentage.
Ultimately, Dana has allowed a BABIP of just .222 against his last 15 right-handed batters.
Cody Bellinger to Hit a HR (+400) at BetMGM
Cody Bellinger has a .219 ISO and wOBA of .358 against his last 85 righties. The left-handed slugger has protection with Aaron Judge in front of him. In addition, he’s struck out only 10.6% of the time against righties in the last month.
Beyond that, Bellinger has also hit 43.3% of fly balls and below 30% of ground balls against righties in the last 30 days. Those numbers should at least improve against Zebby Matthews of the Twins.
Matthews has allowed a .250 ISO and wOBA of .430 to his last 57 lefties. He’s falling behind hitters frequently and has walked 14% of lefties in that time. If Bellinger can get some quality hitter counts, he’s got an opportunity to launch one.
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Tips for Home Run Props
- Find hot hitters and struggling pitchers over the last 30 days.
- Don’t pay attention to previous seasons. Dial in on this year’s stats, using analytics, not basic numbers.
- If a pitcher is allowing a high ISO to lefties and he’s facing a lefty that has hit a high ISO over the last 30 days, it’s likely a good match.
- Just make sure to check other factors, such as ground balls, fly balls, barrel percentages, and hard-hit rates.
All of these numbers help share if it’s been luck or skill!
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