The NFL’s Week 5 schedule has 3 prime-time games, and the most anticipated one is definitely on Sunday night this time:
- On Monday night, the Green Bay Packers head to Las Vegas to take on Davante Adams and the Raiders.
- On Sunday night, the Dallas Cowboys will hope to get some revenge for the last two postseasons in a huge meeting with the San Francisco 49ers.
- On Thursday night, the Chicago Bears will try to rebound from blowing a 21-point lead while they face the Washington Commanders.
We made our top pick for each prime-time game in Week 5, and you can find the best betting odds using OddsTrader.
- Raiders Over 20.5 Points (-130) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
- 49ers Over 24.5 Points (-105) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
- Bears-Commanders Over 44.5 Points (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Raiders Better Start Scoring to Save Josh McDaniels’ Job
Josh McDaniels was fired in his 2nd season as head coach of the Broncos in 2010. Is history about to repeat itself after the Raiders fell to 1-3 with another lackluster performance? Las Vegas has not scored more than 18 points in any game this season, the only team in the league to not have a 20-point game yet in 2023.
The Raiders are a 2-point home underdog, but we are looking at their team scoring total (over/under 20.5 points).
Monday, October 9, 2023 – 08:15 PM EDT at Allegiant Stadium
The Vegas Scoring Drought
The Raiders were hoping to be a better team this year with Jimmy Garoppolo having experience at running McDaniels’ offense, but things are not working out so far. The Raiders have not scored more than 18 points yet in any game. No team has started a season with 5 straight games of not scoring more than 18 points since the 2019 Dolphins. Before that, you have to go back to the 2014 Jaguars, which was Blake Bortles’ rookie season.
Is the streak at all misleading? Perhaps. In Week 1 against Denver, the Raiders only scored 17 points, but they also only had 6 drives, so the numbers were better than on the surface. But in the last 3 games, the Raiders have turned it over 3 times each week. They also faced an elite Buffalo defense that just held the Dolphins to 20 points a week after they scored 70, and Pittsburgh obviously has some elite talent that got the best of the Raiders in that game.
Last week, the Raiders had to start rookie quarterback Aidan O’Connell due to a concussion for Garoppolo, who should be back for Week 5. This is not as good of a pick if O’Connell starts again. But the Raiders have to get moving as Josh Jacobs, last year’s rushing champ, is averaging just 2.7 yards per carry. No team has fewer rushing yards, and the Raiders rank 31st in yards per carry.
McDaniels’ specialty is offense, so he has to get better results than this in another prime-time setting against a mediocre opponent. If not, then he might not last the season as head coach.
Green Bay’s Defense
The Packers have been underwhelming on defense this season. It is hard to say it has been 100% opponent dependent too, because they allowed 25 points and 446 yards to Atlanta, a team that has scored 13 points in the last 2 games.
But it definitely helped the Packers to face the Bears in Week 1 and the Saints in Week 3. The Saints lost Derek Carr to an injury in that game, and Jameis Winston was unable to move the offense until the final drive where New Orleans missed a game-winning field goal.
Things came together against Green Bay in Week 4 when the Lions easily put up 34 points without doing anything spectacular. The Green Bay offense was also very poor, and Jordan Love has been erratic with the ball and his accuracy this year. Maybe he coughs up a turnover or 2 to help the Raiders out with short fields to better their scoring numbers.
Again, it would be good to make sure Garoppolo is starting in this one, though the Packers are no strangers to looking bad against backup quarterbacks. But this is a great opportunity for the Raiders to face a team with a lot of injuries, and we know Davante Adams will want to have a statement game against his former team.
Trust the Raiders to have their highest-scoring game of the season and break that over 20.5 mark.
NFL Pick: Raiders Over 20.5 Points (-130) at Bet365
49ers Keep Rolling
After facing off in the last 2 postseasons, the Cowboys and 49ers will play their first regular-season game against each other since the 2020 season. San Francisco comes in red hot with a 4-0 record, but the Cowboys have allowed a total of 13 points in their 3 wins combined this season.
The 49ers are a 3.5-point home favorite with a total of 45 points. We are focusing on San Francisco’s team total (over/under 24.5).
Sunday, October 8, 2023 – 08:20 PM EDT at Levi’s Stadium
Trust Brock Purdy?
The 2023 49ers are just the 15th team since the 1970 merger to start their season with 4 straight 30-point games. But only 5 of those teams have been able to extend that streak to a 5th game and beyond.
But if anyone can do it, it would be these 49ers, who have scored at least 30 points in 7 consecutive regular-season games, the longest streak in the NFL since the 2012-13 Broncos (11 games).
These streaks for the 49ers coincide with Brock Purdy taking over the starting quarterback job last season. He has led the 49ers to 30 points in 9-of-12 starts, or 9-of-11 starts if you exclude the NFC Championship Game loss where he was injured on the opening drive.
This consistency has been nothing short of incredible, and Purdy has only thrown 2 interceptions in games he started. He should not hand the Cowboys the game like the Giants and Patriots did this year with turnovers.
But speaking of Dallas, the Cowboys are the only team to hold Purdy under 20 points in a start he finished. The 49ers won the divisional round playoff game against the Cowboys last year, but it was a 19-12 final where the defense heavily contributed to the win.
Purdy is coming off a game where he completed 20-of-21 passes, so we’ll see if he can better solve this tough Dallas defense.
Dallas Facing Tougher Offense
The Texas natives, the Dallas Cowboys have had more issues on offense than defense against the 49ers in the playoffs, but it is hard to deny the 49ers look their best on offense under Kyle Shanahan right now.
We just talked about Purdy’s consistency at leading the team to 30 points and his low number of turnovers even if he has been known to put the ball in harm’s way. But the 49ers moved the ball well in the playoff game despite the 19-12 final. They ended up settling for 4 field goals. Purdy’s pressure rate (11.8%) was relatively low, and the Cowboys only sacked him twice.
The Dallas defense has been flexing so far with a ranking of No. 1 in points allowed and No. 2 in yards allowed. But the Cowboys have also played the easiest schedule to this point, and 3 of the 4 offenses they faced are absolutely abysmal (Giants, Jets, and Patriots).
The Cardinals, led by Joshua Dobbs, were the only offense able to not turn the ball over against Dallas. The Cardinals had 222 rushing yards, and Dobbs was very efficient (17-of-21 for 189 yards) as Arizona did not ask him to do much.
It took a run-heavy effort without any turnovers to beat Dallas soundly. Which team has the pieces in place to replicate that? It fits San Francisco to a tee with Purdy leaning on Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, etc.
Remember, the line is over 24.5 points, so it is not like we need Dallas to continue the 30-point streak to hit this one. A score like 27 or 28 would work just fine too, and that feels reasonable for the team to get with how well they are playing. We also saw Micah Parsons pull up with a little ankle injury during last week’s game, so he may not be 100% for this matchup.
Maybe the Cowboys can get a good look at this film and correct things for a potential playoff rematch for the 3rd year in a row. That was not a luxury they had the last 2 years when they had to face the 49ers cold in the playoffs.
But in a Week 5 game with the 49ers on such a hot run going back to last year, you should trust the 49ers to keep scoring at home and go over 24.5 points in this one. If Joshua Dobbs can do it, so can Purdy.
NFL Pick: 49ers Over 24.5 Points (-105) at Caesars Sportsbook
Bears Ready for Another High-Scoring Battle?
The Bears could probably taste the end of their 13-game losing streak, but Denver had other plans and Chicago tied its largest blown lead in franchise history (21 points) in a 31-28 finish. The Commanders almost pulled off another upset in Philadelphia before losing 34-31 in overtime.
The Commanders are a 7-point favorite with a total of 44.5 points. We are looking at the over.
Thursday, October 5, 2023 – 08:15 PM EDT at FedExField
Despite last season’s meeting ending 12-7 on a Thursday night, the Bears may view that game as a launching point for Justin Fields, who finished with 88 rushing yards and came up just short on a game-winning touchdown drive.
A week later, the Bears scored 33 points in New England in an upset win, but they have not won another game since despite scoring at least 28 points in 4 games since then. Maybe last week will give Fields more confidence after he shredded the Denver defense in the first half with nearly a 100% completion rate and perfect passer rating.
But some late turnovers doomed the Bears to their 14th loss in a row. The Denver defense may just be historically bad, but the Commanders also look vulnerable on that side of the ball. Washington has allowed at least 33 points in 3 straight games.
Chicago likely does not get to that mark in this one, but it would not be a stretch to see the Bears hit 20 points again.
How Is Sam Howell Doing?
The other young quarterback looking for consistency in this matchup is Sam Howell, who has been very uneven so far in his first year as a starter. Howell is completing 67.1% of his passes and ranks 18th in QBR, but he also has taken a league-high 24 sacks while throwing 4 interceptions in a loss to Buffalo.
But aside from that disastrous Buffalo game, we have seen Howell lead his team back in the 4th quarter against the Cardinals, Broncos, and Eagles this year. He led Washington to 35 points in Denver and 31 in Philadelphia, which are not easy places to play with the altitude and rabid fans.
Oddly enough, the Commanders have 8 turnovers in their home games and no turnovers on the road this year. But the Chicago defense is certainly terrible after ranking last in points allowed last year and next to last so far this season.
This is a great matchup for Howell to look good in prime time against.
Yes, it is scary to pick a game with a couple of sack merchants at quarterback to hit the over. Yes, picking any prime-time game to hit the over feels scary right now with all the bad football we have witnessed at night this year. But the Packers played as poor of a half as a team could last week against Detroit, and that game still finished 34-20.
This may not be another 31-28 or 34-31 game, but both offenses should find some success against these defenses to hit the over 44.5 points. Even 27-20 would work just fine.
NFL Pick: Over 44.5 Points (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.