Editor’s Note: The Steelers-Bills game scheduled for Sunday has been rescheduled to Monday at 4:30 p.m. ET due to severe weather conditions and concerns for public safety, as announced by the NFL.
The NFL’s Wild Card round gets the playoffs moving this weekend with some very interesting games, including Sunday’s slate of Steelers-Bills, Packers-Cowboys, and Rams-Lions.
We made our best bets for the Wild Card below, and you can always find these bets at top-rated sportsbooks.
Picks Summary
- Steelers Over 13.5 Points (+150)Â
- Packers-Cowboys Both to Score 20+ Points (-120)Â
- Rams-Lions Both to Score 1 Touchdown in Each Half (+115)Â
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Mason Rudolph to the Rescue Again?
The Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7) snuck into the playoffs as the No. 7 seed after winning their final 3 games once backup quarterback Mason Rudolph took over in late December. Can the Steelers continue this push as the biggest underdog (10 points) this weekend?
The oddsmakers are not high on the Steelers. Their team total is over/under 13.5 points (12.5 at some sportsbooks), easily the lowest of any team playing this week. The weather in Buffalo isn’t even going to be as bitterly cold as it will be in Kansas City, and the Steelers just scored 17 points in the pouring rain in Baltimore.
Is this a great value bet, or is Pittsburgh going to flop hard with Rudolph?
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Buffalo Bills
Monday, January 15, 2024 – 04:30 PM ET at Highmark Stadium
How Rudolph Gives the Steelers a Shot
If this game goes like Pittsburgh’s last meeting with Buffalo, a 38-3 loss in 2022, then they are obviously cooked this weekend. But that was also a game started by Kenny Pickett, a rookie who was making his 1st start and at a time when Buffalo looked like the best team in the NFL.
Even in that game, the Steelers missed 2 very makeable field goals from Chris Boswell, they turned it over twice, and they failed on 4th down on 3 drives. They moved the ball, Pickett threw for 327 yards (hasn’t cracked 300 since), but they just didn’t finish drives behind their green quarterback.
But Rudolph is playing better than Pickett ever has in the NFL. He is making good decisions, accurate throws, and he is taking chances for his receivers to make plays that Pickett is not aggressive enough to duplicate. But Rudolph has also been in control of these games instead of throwing the game away like Mitch Trubisky would.
The Steelers are starting the hot hand, but they are also starting the best quarterback they have on the roster right now in this game.
Rudolph also can say that in 13 career starts, he has led the Steelers to at least 16 points in all but 1 game. That was the game in Cleveland in 2019, a 21-7 loss, where Myles Garrett swung Rudolph’s helmet at him.
Has Rudolph ever scored against an elite team? Yeah, his 1st NFL start was in 2019 against the 49ers, a team that would clinch the No. 1 seed with a top defense and reached the Super Bowl. The 49ers had to come back in the 4th quarter to win 24-20.
Rudolph is by no means a great quarterback or a hidden gem the Steelers have been wasting on the bench. But he is better than Pickett and he should show that in this game. Scoring more than 13.5 points is a fairly low bar.
The Potential Game Scripts
Let’s consider some of the game scripts we could see in this one that point to the Steelers likely scoring more than 13.5 points.
The Bills could just annihilate Pittsburgh’s defense without T.J. Watt available just as he was missing last year when Josh Allen threw for a career-high 424 yards. The Steelers have allowed at least 36 points in 4 straight playoff games, which is an NFL record.
But in those games, the Steelers would work their way back behind Ben Roethlisberger and at least make it respectable a few times, scoring 21 points in Kansas City (2021), 17 points in New England (2016), and 42 and 37 points in the home losses to the 2017 Jaguars and 2020 Browns.
This game obviously shouldn’t end 45-42, but the Bills playing from well ahead and the Steelers scoring some garbage time touchdowns is possible.
It’s also very possible that the Bills mess up and turn the ball over so much that they give the Steelers short fields that drive up scoring. Buffalo just did this a year ago at home in the wild card round when Miami, a 13.5-point underdog, started 3rd-string rookie quarterback Skylar Thompson. Thompson played a terrible game, but since the Bills turned it over 3 times, that game was a 34-31 final.
The Steelers were plus-11 in turnover differential this year, tied for the 3rd-best mark in the league. If Rudolph protects the ball better than Allen, this could get interesting even without Watt playing. The Steelers also will likely lean on their running game, and the Bills rank 28th in yards per carry allowed (4.6).
The Pick
Unless Myles Garrett is trying to assault him with a helmet, Rudolph has always put up more than 15 points for the Steelers. Also, Pittsburgh has scored at least 16 points in 28 straight playoff games going back to the 1997 season, the longest streak in NFL history. The Packers (25) are the only other team with a streak longer than 15 games.
Despite their tradition of defense, it has often been the defense that has let the Steelers down in big games in the 21st century. The offense has held its own on the scoring front, and they should do it again here.
Even the Patriots averaged 25 points against the Bills this year. Anything is possible.
NFL Pick: Steelers Over 13.5 Points (+150) at Bet365
The Top 2 Quarterbacks in Passing Touchdowns Meet in Dallas
It would sound hard to believe earlier this season, but Jordan Love finished No. 2 in touchdown passes with 32 this year, only trailing Dak Prescott (36) in Dallas. Now the quarterbacks will meet in the playoffs with a trip to the divisional round on the line.
The Cowboys are a 7.5-point home favorite with a total of 50.5 points. We are looking at a game prop where both teams score at least 20 points.
Green Bay Packers vs. Dallas Cowboys
Sunday, January 14, 2024 – 04:30 PM ET at AT&T Stadium
Why Green Bay Should Get to 20 Points
Green Bay’s offensive turnaround this season has been remarkable, but the nice thing is it also has logic to it in a league where logic often gets thrown out the window.
Sure, the Packers struggled early with a 3-6 record, and we wondered if Jordan Love was really the long-term answer. But beyond Love being an inexperienced 1st-year starter, the Packers had a ton of 1st and 2nd-year skill players around him, not to mention missing their best offensive tackle (David Bakhtiari). Only the running backs were veterans.
So, once Love started turning things around against the Chargers, we saw the young receivers blossom as well, and Matt LaFleur is one of the better coaches in the league to oversee this development. The results speak for themselves, with Love lighting it up with MVP-caliber numbers down the stretch.
Green Bay’s Performance So Far
There was a time earlier this year when the Packers went 7 straight games without scoring more than 20 points, something they hadn’t done since the early 1990s before they traded for Brett Favre.
But once that streak ended, the Packers’ season took off. The Packers had scored at least 20 points in 7 straight games before beating Chicago 17-9 last Sunday to make the playoffs.
You might think 17-9 is a disappointment, but in a way, it was one of Green Bay’s best offensive performances of the year. The Packers only had 7 drives, missed a field goal, screwed up the drive before halftime and didn’t get to kick another field goal, lost a fumble, and then ran out the final 6:08 on the clock to win the game. The Packers gained at least 52 yards on every drive except for the drive that ended with Love’s fumble, which was a 32-yard drive. The Packers were moving the ball almost at will in that game and it was the 2nd game in a row where they cleared 400 yards of offense after not having any 400-yard games in Weeks 1-16.
In other words, the Packers are coming in on fire. Their top 4 scoring games this year have all been on the road too, which is weird but good for this week in Dallas. The Packers have scored at least 20 points in 6-of-9 road games this year.
The Dallas defense is very good but it is a little overrated when you look at the schedule of opposing offenses and how they padded numbers against the likes of the Patriots, Giants, Commanders, Panthers, and Jets. Also, since the Dallas offense is so efficient, Dallas games have fewer drives, so the per-drive stats for the Dallas defense are not as elite as the raw numbers suggest. Same logic for why Green Bay only scoring 17 against Chicago is misleading.
Unless Love lays an egg in this one, it would be surprising if the Packers didn’t get to 20 points.
Why Dallas Should Get to 20 Points
This side is easy as fans will be ready to run Mike McCarthy and Dak Prescott out of town if they don’t score 20 points in this game. Dallas has scored at least 20 points in 16 straight home games, the longest streak in franchise history. They still have a distance to the NFL record (30 games by the 2016-19 Patriots), but they are a consistent scoring machine under Prescott and McCarthy at home.
In fact, Dallas has scored at least 30 points in 7-of-8 home games this year. The only game under 30 was the 20-19 win over Detroit in Week 17.
The Green Bay defense is kind of secretly terrible because the overall numbers look better than the play on the field thanks to the schedule and favorable circumstances like dropped passes, fumbles, and getting just enough 3rd-down sacks of players like Patrick Mahomes and Justin Fields.
But we have seen Joe Barry’s defense absolutely fold against the likes of Bryce Young (Panthers), Tommy DeVito (Giants), and Baker Mayfield (Buccaneers). It would be a massive disappointment if Dak didn’t deliver at home in what has been the best season of his career.
The Pick
An elite offense (Dallas) against a weak defense (Packers). A hot offense (Packers) against a somewhat overrated defense (Cowboys) that blew a 14-point lead in the 4th quarter to the Packers a year ago. We’ll take our chances that both teams find their way to at least 20 points in this one, and hopefully it will be entertaining like most Packers-Cowboys games have been over the years.
In the last 4 meetings in the Prescott era, both teams scored at least 24 points every time.
NFL Pick: Both Teams to Score 20+ Points (-120) at Bet365
The Skill Players on Display in Detroit
Unless Jordan Love goes vintage Aaron Rodgers in Dallas, it is hard to imagine there will be a better offensive showcase this weekend than the Sunday night game in Detroit when the Lions host Matthew Stafford and the Rams.
Both offenses come in hot, the game will be indoors unlike those frozen AFC stadiums, and these defenses are both anything but Super Bowl caliber.
The Lions are a 3-point home favorite with a total of 51.5 points. We have been let down numerous times this year in big games like this when it comes to scoring, but this one should deliver. We like a game prop that sees both teams scoring a touchdown in each half.
Los Angeles Rams vs. Detroit Lions
Sunday, January 14, 2024 – 08:15 PM ET at Ford Field
Matthew Stafford’s Homecoming
Things look good now, but this did not look like a playoff season for the Rams or a Pro Bowl season for Matthew Stafford until very recently. Through 9 games played this year, Stafford had 9 touchdown passes and was 4-5 as a starter. That’s not good.
But starting in Week 12, Stafford threw 15 touchdowns to only 3 interceptions, and his 109.5 passer rating and 8.04 yards per pass attempt would be numbers as good as any in his career.
The Rams also scored at least 26 points in 6 straight games, and they finished 7-1 down the stretch, only losing to the Ravens in overtime on a punt return score. Not bad at all. Sean McVay obviously still knows how to coach as this turnaround started after the bye week.
But the other reason for it is healthy. Cooper Kupp was not healthy to start this season, which is a big reason why Puka Nacua had such an incredible start for a rookie. Then the running game had a slow start, Kyren Williams was injured, and even Stafford missed a game when the Rams lost 20-3 to Green Bay.
But once we got Stafford, Kupp, Williams, and Nacua all healthy and on the field together, this offense really took off. That’s why they are able to score so consistently, because this grouping along with some improved offensive line play brings the Rams much closer to McVay’s best teams from 2018 and 2021.
Since the bye week, the Rams have scored a touchdown in both halves in 8 straight games. That streak even survived the 49ers last week with backups playing. The Rams just have to keep it rolling offensively and they will take care of their end of this prop.
Jared Goff’s Redemption Game
Jared Goff has talked openly about having a chip on his shoulder from the Stafford trade to Detroit in 2021. He was kind of the throwaway part to the trade as the Rams wanted Stafford and they immediately won a Super Bowl with him in 2021.
But you could argue Goff in Detroit has been the more consistent quarterback and has led the better offense since 2022. Stafford still was voted to the Pro Bowl over Goff this year, so he could view that as another snub and another chip on his shoulder if he wants to make this his ultimate redemption game and bring the Lions their 1st playoff win since the 1991 season.
Goff has his own incredible set of weapons around him, and the better offensive line in this matchup. Amon-Ra St. Brown is a fantastic No. 1 wideout, and the backfield of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery is fully clicking together now. Rookie tight end Sam LaPorta has also authored one of the best rookie seasons ever for a tight end, and you could argue he outplayed Travis Kelce this year for a potential All-Pro selection.
LaPorta injured his knee on Sunday against the Vikings and is questionable to play this Sunday night. But the team has not yet ruled him out, so there is optimism. But the Lions have enough weapons as it is to score a lot of points in this game as they often do at home with Goff at quarterback.
Unlike the Rams, the Lions do not have a long streak of games scoring a touchdown in both halves coming into this one. They were blanked in the 1st half in Dallas (Week 17) and they were shutout completely in the 2nd half in Chicago (Week 14).
But overall, the Lions have scored touchdowns in both halves in 14-of-17 games, including all 8 home games. That’s good enough for us.
The Pick
We have already demonstrated why both offenses should be game to score touchdowns in both halves, but what about the defenses?
This year, the Lions have allowed 11-of-17 opponents to score touchdowns in both halves, but the Rams have only done it in 8-of-17 games.
But just as the Rams have been hot on offense in recent weeks, it was early in the season when the Los Angeles defense was good at only allowing touchdowns in 1 half. They stopped 5-of-8 opponents in a half to start this season, meaning they have only prevented 3-of-9 teams down the stretch.
Late in the season, we saw the Rams nearly blow huge leads late in the game to the Commanders, Saints, and Giants. The Lions are better than all those teams, and they know how to score early in games too in addition to coming back.
Both defenses rank in the bottom half of the league in most statistical categories. These offenses are going to shine, and it is worth pointing out that 7 different players (4 Lions, 3 Rams) have odds of +125 or better to score a touchdown in this game according to Bet365.
That is more probable touchdown scorers than the Browns-Texans (2), Dolphins-Chiefs (2), and Steelers-Bills (1) games combined.
Let there be touchdowns this Sunday night, early and late, and from both sides.
NFL Pick: Both to Score 1+ Touchdown in Each Half (+115) at Bet365
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
