The F1 season is in full swing, and it’s gotten off to something of a surprising start. Mercedes is dominating between George Russell and 19-year-old Kimi Antonelli. Antonelli has a nine-point edge on Russell in the Drivers’ standings, while Mercedes has a 45-point lead over Ferrari in Teams’.
The Miami Grand Prix is an opportunity for the leaders to build upon their advantage or for Oscar Piastri, Lando Norris and McLaren to inch their way back in. It’s also something of a restart: A five-week break spent avoiding the conflict in the Middle East means this is the first GP since March 29.
From a betting perspective, it’s an interesting race. Should we follow the momentum, or go in a different direction for more value? Let’s take a look at the favorites, sleepers and longshots to win the Miami GP, with odds from the best offshore sportsbooks.
Odds to Win Miami Grand Prix
Odds are current as of Wednesday, April 22 at BetOnline.
- George Russell (+140)
- Kimi Antonelli (+150)
- Oscar Piastri (+800)
- Lando Norris (+1200)
- Charles Leclerc (+1400)
- Lewis Hamilton (+1400)
- Max Verstappen (+3300)
- Isack Hadjar (+25000)
Unsurprisingly, oddsmakers like Russell and Antonelli to remain atop the standings in Miami. Max Verstappen’s slow start to the year has him near the bottom of the top contenders.
Miami Grand Prix Favorites
These are the top contenders, as chosen by the oddsmakers. Shorter odds don’t provide as much value, but one of these drivers will likely be the first to cross the finish line.
George Russell (+140)
Russell came on strong in the season opener, winning the Australian Grand Prix with a three-second cushion over teammate Antonelli. He’s stayed near the top of the leaderboard in the two races that have followed, finishing second in the Chinese Grand Prix and fourth in Japan.
Still, the preseason favorite has surrendered his early lead to Antonelli, and it’s set up an intriguing intra-team battle. Now, it’s time for him to step up and prove why he should still be considered the top title contender after a slight dip in the standings.
Is it worth the bet at +140? I’m not sold on it. Russell may well go on to win Miami – he finished third here last year – but momentum isn’t on his side. Until he reestablishes himself as the driver to beat, I’m staying off. Alternatively, you can place a bet on the field to beat Russell at -180.
Kimi Antonelli (+150)
Antonelli is the driver most worthy of being the favorite. Following a second-place finish in Australia, he’s won consecutive races in China and Japan and established himself as a genuine title contender in the process.
He’s had a little luck go his way – a well-timed pit stop helped him claim victory at Suzuka – but you have to put yourself in position to benefit from small breaks like that, and Antonelli is racing like a seasoned pro despite being the youngest driver to ever lead the world championship.
Antonelli earned sixth in Miami in 2025 and has obviously only improved since then. He’s finished no lower than second in a GP this season. A setback is bound to happen eventually, but he’s driving with such confidence right now that +150 feels like a bargain.
Oscar Piastri (+800)
After finishing third in the Drivers’ standings in 2025, Piastri has had a nightmare start to the 2026 season. A formation lap crash kept him from competing in Australia, and he didn’t start in China due to electrical issues. Still, he managed to make up plenty of ground at Suzuka, finishing 13 seconds behind Antonelli for second place.
Miami was Piastri’s fourth early-season victory in 2025, and at the time, it was his third straight. Japan proved that he’s still among the top drivers in the field, but he was still a distant second – hence the +800 odds on this bet.
Is there value here? Absolutely. I’d just be more interested in a podium prop than taking Piastri as the outright winner.
Miami GP Sleepers to Bet on
These drivers aren’t the betting favorites, but one small, favorable break could vault them into contention.
Lando Norris (+1200)
Like Piastri, Norris didn’t start in China due to electrical problems on McLaren’s end. Otherwise, he’s been solid to begin the year, finishing fifth in Australia and Japan. It’s not the exceptional start he had in 2025, but he’s in a comfortable position heading into Miami.
Last year, Norris earned second in this race after crossing the finish line less than five seconds after Piastri. In 2024, he won it outright. Perhaps banking on a return to form could be the move at +1200?
Charles Leclerc (+1400)
It’s been Mercedes and Ferrari atop the standings to begin the year. Leclerc has gone third-fourth-third through the first three races, but either he or Lewis Hamilton has helped Ferrari podium in each.
Beating Russell and/or Antonelli in Miami will provide a significant challenge. Leclerc earned third here in 2024, but a seventh-place finish in 2025 doesn’t inspire much confidence heading into this year’s race. I wouldn’t rule out another podium for Ferrari, but both Mercedes drivers have performed a cut above thus far.
Top Miami Grand Prix Longshots
We’re further down the list, but this tier still brings elite skill to the table. Could Miami provide this year’s biggest surprise so far?
Lewis Hamilton (+1400)
Hamilton sits fourth in the Drivers’ standings after going fourth-third-sixth through the first three grands prix. He called his performance “pretty terrible” at Suzuka, falling out of podium position over the final 15 laps. It was a frustrating finish to cap off an otherwise positive weekend.
Following the break, Hamilton has spent ample time working with Ferrari on upgrades to his car. Whether or not those fixes pay off remains to be seen, but it feels like Hamilton is one driver who could outperform his odds in Miami.
Max Verstappen (+3300)
Verstappen’s early-season struggles are well documented, and they don’t appear to be going anywhere. His frustrations with his vehicle have seen him go sixth-DNF-eighth through three races, and he’s placed ninth in the Drivers’ standings heading into Miami.
While Verstappen questions his F1 future, oddsmakers are pessimistic about his chances of winning this GP. At +3300, he’s a distant seventh. It’s not often you get odds this long on one of the best drivers in Formula 1 history, but that’s just where things stand with Verstappen right now.
Best Miami Grand Prix Bets
So which is the best way to go? Kimi Antonelli is obviously a strong choice at +150 given his early season success, and George Russell remains a top contender at +140 despite sliding a bit in the standings.
Perhaps the best value is Oscar Piastri at +800. He overcame plenty of adversity to place second in Japan, and he’s coming off a highly successful 2025 season.
In any case, it’s essential to get the best odds on every bet. Stick to our best offshore sportsbooks this F1 season to put yourself in position to succeed.
