Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots Betting Trends

The upcoming NFL showdown on January 4, 2026, between the Miami Dolphins and New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, MA, is set to be a thrilling display of football prowess. This Sunday night football game, broadcasted on FOX, features the Patriots as favorites with a -10.5 point spread against the Dolphins, who are underdogs with a +10.5 spread. The total points line is set at 45.5, indicating expectations of a moderately high-scoring game.

Miami's offense, led by starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, will face a formidable Patriots defense known for allowing just 198 passing yards and 104 rushing yards per game on average. The Dolphins, averaging 184 passing yards and 123 rushing yards, will need to leverage their balanced attack to challenge the Patriots' defensive schemes. On the other side, New England's offense, spearheaded by Tommy DeVito, boasts a strong passing game with 252 passing yards per game, while their run offense averages 121 rushing yards. The Dolphins' defense, conceding about 216 passing yards and 125 rushing yards, will be tested to contain the Patriots' dynamic offense.

Injuries could play a role, with Miami's Aaron Brewer questionable but likely to play and key players like safety Minkah Fitzpatrick out. The Patriots have several players listed as out or questionable, including linebacker Robert Spillane and wide receiver Kayshon Boutte.

Recent form shows Miami with a 7-9 straight-up record and an 8-8 against the spread, while New England holds a strong 13-3 straight-up and 11-5 against the spread. The Patriots' home record is solid, and their ability to cover spreads makes them a tempting bet. The last matchup on September 14, 2025, saw the Patriots edge out the Dolphins 33-27 in Miami, a competitive game that sets the stage for this rematch.

Considering the stats and current line, the best bet leans towards New England covering the -10.5 spread, leveraging their strong home performance and defensive capabilities. Bettors should watch the quarterback duel and how each team's pass protection and rush defense match up. For deeper betting insights and to make smarter wagers, consider starting your OddsTrader Turbo subscription or placing bets with a U.S. regulated sportsbook.