If you watched the Denver Broncos start 0-2 last year, you never would have believed this was a 10-win team that would make the playoffs behind rookie quarterback Bo Nix.
Still, that’s why they pay coach Sean Payton the big bucks to develop quarterbacks. And after Patrick Surtain II won the Defensive Player of the Year award, the Broncos had enough to make the tournament.
There’s potential to do much better this year, especially if Nix can play for a full season the way he finished 2025. Let’s look at the top-rated sportsbooks for our favorite player props and team picks for the 2025 Broncos.
American Football Conference Winner Odds
Can Bo Nix Soar Past 24.5 Touchdowns in Year 2 with Sean Payton?
One thing Sean Payton really never got to do before 2024 was mold his NFL quarterback from the start. Drew Brees was a 5-year vet when he went to New Orleans with Payton in 2006, who didn’t stick around long after Brees retired to develop the next passing legend.
That’s what made Nix such an intriguing prospect for Payton to take under his wings.
After a slow start to 2024, they really turned it on, and by season’s end, Nix threw 29 touchdowns. Only Justin Herbert (31) had more as a rookie in NFL history and that was done during the COVID season of 2020 with no fans in the crowd.
Nix threw 21 touchdowns over the last 8 games of 2024. That puts his 17-game pace at:
- 70.3% completions
- 4300 yards
- 44.6 touchdown passes
That’s why this number for Nix’s touchdown passes (24.5) looks mighty low and a great value for the over. Forget a sophomore slump. Most quarterbacks who excel as a rookie do well in Year 2 as well.
Nix has a great offensive line, they drafted him a better running back for this year, and they added a security blanket tight end in Evan Engram. So let’s trust him at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review) to throw over 24.5 touchdowns (-110), as he might even throw 30 this year. He was only off by 1 last season.
Can Courtland Sutton Go Over 850.5 Receiving Yards?
While the Broncos added tight end Evan Engram, this is still an offense that goes through Courtland Sutton, the No. 1 wide receiver. He just got paid an extension that many feel is below market value, but don’t expect him to pout and not play up to his standards.
Sutton had 1,081 yards in 2024, his 2nd 1,000-yard season in Denver. He turns 30 in October, so that may have been a reason he didn’t get D.K. Metcalf money on his new deal.
Still, 30 isn’t ancient for a wideout yet.
Sutton can hit the big plays and the short catches after he had 81 receptions last year. With the Broncos, you should expect more of the passing offense we saw in the 2nd half of 2024 after they took the training wheels off Nix.
This means more targets for Sutton, who is still clearly their best all-around weapon and will easily reach 850.5 Receiving Yards priced around -130.
2025 Broncos Win Total Prediction: Can Denver Top 9.5 Wins Again?
The 2025 Broncos currently have the following odds at Bet365 for their season win total:
- Over 9.5 wins (+100)
- Under 9.5 wins (-130)
There may be some skepticism towards Denver repeating a 10-win season due to the lack of quality wins the team had last year. Beating the Chiefs’ backups isn’t going to move people, but let’s not forget this team was a 35-yard field goal in Arrowhead away from ending that team’s winning streak.
Sure, the Ravens and Bills (playoffs) bullied this team, but that’s not that surprising in what was supposed to be a rebuilding year. The Broncos also took the Bengals to overtime and had chances to win that game.
Still, beyond Nix improving for a full season, you have to like the shot Denver has to field the best defense in the AFC West:
- They drafted corner Jahdae Barron in the 1st round and he can play the nickel and give them a formidable trio with Surtain and Riley Moss.
- They added some ex-49ers like linebacker Dre Greenlaw and safety Talanoa Hufanga.
It’s neither the hardest nor easiest schedule you’ll see this year. But the Broncos certainly have the talent to go 3-3 or 4-2 in a tough division where the Raiders should also be improved this year.
They get to play the Giants and Jets, the 2 New York teams who often struggle in the last decade. Heck, they even start the season at home against Tennessee with a rookie quarterback (Cam Ward) trying to figure out that defense at Mile High. Good luck.
With the presence of the Chiefs in that division, it’s hard to pick the Broncos to go way over 9.5 wins or win the AFC West. But over 9.5 wins is a good even-money bet for your team props.
Broncos Playoff Odds: Can Denver Return to the Postseason in 2025?
It’s a little interesting to see that the Broncos are +100 at Bet365 to go over 9.5 wins but -130 to make the playoffs.
Sure, you could make the playoffs with a 9-8 record. It didn’t happen in either conference last year, and the Seahawks also missed out with a 10-7 record in the NFC. But a 9-8 playoff team is possible.
Still, Denver has a great shot to finish at least 2nd in the AFC West and close the gap more on the Chiefs. This team has:
- The coaching pedigree.
- The balance of offense and defense.
- The experience from last year of pulling this off and becoming a solid playoff contender.
Another reason to like the Broncos to make the playoffs is potential tie-breakers over their competition. They get the Bengals at home early in the year when that team usually struggles in September, and they host the Chargers in Week 18, which could be huge for that final playoff spot.
If you look at the 18 rookie quarterbacks who made the playoffs and were the full-time starter in Year 2, 12 of them made the playoffs again in Year 2, including Stroud last year in Houston. So, that’s a solid rate (two-thirds) of repeating playoff success while priced at -130, and I think Nix and the Broncos get it done in 2025.
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