Yesterday’s MLB game at the Bristol Motor Speedway was a wash due to rain. That ruined some excitement yesterday. Though the game was postponed to today with a 1:00 pm ET start time.
I won’t use the AI Model to bet on that game. I just hope the game runs smoothly, as everything looked perfect before the rain began to come down.
That said, I’ve still got three player prop bets worth considering, all backed by the AI Model. Here’s the breakdown.
St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres
Sunday, August 03, 2025 – 04:10 PM EDT at Petco Park
The AI Model thinks Lars Nootbaar will earn .663 total bases in tonight’s game for the Cardinals. However, his prop is at .5, with the Over at just -130. The Over .5 total bases is the play here.
Nootbarr Is On Fire!
The St. Louis Cardinals are not in a great position to make the playoffs. However, the offense is starting to turn a corner, behind Lars Nootbaar.
Nootbaar has hit a .278 ISO and wOBA of .390 with 15% of strikeouts against righties over the last month. The lefty has also hit a .53.3% hard contact rate with a 13.3% barrel percentage, while adding only 26.7% of ground balls.
Nootbaar will face Dylan Cease, who has still allowed a .170 ISO to his last 55 lefties. In addition, he’s given up 28.6% of fly balls to lefties and has allowed nearly an 11% barrel percentage to lefties.
Nootbaar has legitimate potential to get a base hit tonight.
I’m with the AI Model and will take Nootbaar to add at least one total base at -130 odds.
Texas Rangers vs. Seattle Mariners
Sunday, August 03, 2025 – 04:10 PM EDT at T-Mobile Park
Our AI Model believes Joc Pederson will earn .307 runs in tonight’s game. However, his runs total is at .5, with the under sitting at just -150. That’s a huge play, especially since it’s a +13.6% EV play.
How Will Peterson Get On Base?
It’s been an absolutely terrible season for Joc Pederson. He started the season slowly and is finishing it even slower.
Over the last 12 at-bats against righties, he’s hit a .000 ISO and wOBA of .192 with 33.3% of strikeouts. He’s also hit 66.7% of ground balls and no fly balls in any of those 12 at-bats.
Meanwhile, he’ll take on Logan Evans of the Mariners, who has limited his last 34 lefties to 12.5% of line drives. Evans has also added 45.8% of ground balls against lefties.
How will Pederson score a run if he can’t even get on base? I’m on Joc Pederson to add below .5 runs at -150.
Detroit Tigers vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Sunday, August 03, 2025 – 07:10 PM EDT at Citizens Bank Park
Our AI Model predicts Brandon Marsh will add .377 hits tonight. However, his prop is at .5, with the under at +145. This is one of the craziest plays you’ll ever see using the AI Model, as it’s a +27.8% +EV play!
Charlie Morton Is Familiar With The Phillies!
The Detroit Tigers traded the Baltimore Orioles for Charlie Morton at the MLB Trade Deadline. The veteran right-hander played most of his career with the Atlanta Braves before heading to the Orioles and Tigers.
He’s got many reps against the Phillies, including Brandon Marsh.
Ultimately, Morton has earned 46.2% of ground balls against lefties and has allowed just 21.2% of line drives against lefties during the last month.
Tonight, he’ll take on Brandon Marsh, who is a lefty that has hit a 50% ground ball rate and only 17.5% of line drives in the last month against righties. That’s not going to help him get a lot of top results.
We’ll back Brandon Marsh to add below .5 hits tonight at +145.
*21+ Seek help with a gambling addiction at 1-800-GAMBLER
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
