We’ve got a full slate of games in the MLB today. Since the AI Model has been on fire, we’re returning to it for another three bets. Let’s have a huge start to the weekend!
The Picks
- Cal Raleigh Over 0.5 Total Bases (-145)
- Patrick Bailey Under 0.5 Hits (+120)
- Luis Rengifo Over 0.5 Total Bases (-165)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Seattle Mariners vs. San Diego Padres
Saturday, May 17, 2025 – 8:40 PM EDT at Petco Park
The AI Model believes Cal Raleigh will earn 1.034 total bases. Meanwhile, his total bases prop is only at .5, with the over at -145. That’s a steal!
Can Anyone Stop Cal Raleigh Right Now?
The San Diego Padres will give the ball to Nick Pivetta tonight. He’ll face a Mariners offense with a few raging hot hitters right now.
One of those guys is Cal Raleigh, who has added a .254 ISO and wOBA of .405 against his last 75 right-handed pitchers. The switch-hitter has smashed 35.7% of fly balls and only 19% of ground balls, while hitting 71.4% of hard contact against righties over the last 30 days.
Meanwhile, Pivetta has limited lefties to a .067 ISO and wOBA of .222. Yet, he’s still induced just 34.6% of ground balls and has allowed 50% of hard contact with a 15.4% barrel percentage. In addition, he’s falling behind in counts, walking lefties more than 10% of the time this year.
It’s unlikely Pivetta keeps up his numbers against lefties. Raleigh can take advantage. Grab Raleigh to add at least one total base against the Padres tonight.
MLB Pick: Cal Raleigh Over 0.5 Total Bases (-145) at Bet365
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants
Saturday, May 17, 2025 – 9:05 PM EDT at Oracle Park
The AI Model thinks Patrick Bailey will earn .599 hits against the Athletics. Yet, his prop is at .5, with the under juiced up to +120. We’ll gladly take that plus-money wager.
Patrick Bailey Isn’t Consistent!
The San Francisco Giants will battle Luis Severino of the Athletics tonight. Severino has limited his first 231 batters to a .125 ISO and wOBA of 304 this season. Ultimately, he’s not adding a high rate of strikeouts, but he’s at least limited fly balls to 21.6% this season.
Meanwhile, he’ll take on Patrick Bailey as one of the four lefties he’ll face. Bailey is a switch-hitter, but he’s added a .043 ISO and wOBA of .199 with 31.4% of strikeouts against right-handed pitching over the last 30 days. Bailey added 21.2% of line drives and 27.3% of hard contact against righties during the previous 30 days.
That’s why he’s hit just a .273 BABIP. He’s earned a 3% barrel percentage over the last 30 days and just hasn’t been much of a factor against right-handed pitching over the previous month.
I’ll fade Bailey here, especially since the AI Model agrees.
MLB Pick: Patrick Bailey Under 0.5 Hits (+120) at Bet365
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Saturday, May 17, 2025 – 9:10 PM EDT at Dodger Stadium
Our AI Model predicts Luis Rengifo will record 1.175 total hits. Still, his consensus prop is at .5, with the over at -165 using Bet365. Consider backing Rengifo to add at least one total base tonight.
It’s Clayton Kershaw Time!
The Los Angeles Angels will take on veteran lefty Clayton Kershaw tonight. He’ll make his season debut after dealing with multiple injuries before the start of the season.
I don’t expect Kershaw to pitch deep in this game. I also don’t know how great he’ll be. Still, he’s battling an Angels lineup that has hit a .122 ISO and wOBA of .157 against lefties over the last month.
That includes Luis Rengifo, who has added a .000 ISO and wOBA of .099 against his last nine lefties. He’s also struck out a third of those plate appearances against lefties.
However, last season, Rengifo added a .393 wOBA against 58 lefties. He also struck out just 17.2% of the time and added 52.3% of hard contact.
On the other hand, Kershaw allowed a .354 wOBA to 100 righties last year and struck out only 15% of righties. Rengifo is a switch-hitter, but will bat right-handed against Kershaw. That should help him a little bit.
The Angels have a pitiful offense, but Rengifo’s stats from last season excite me to see what he can do tonight. Let’s take his Over.
MLB Pick: Luis Rengifo Over 0.5 Total Bases (-165) at Bet365
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