With 15 games on the slate, I used the AI Model to identify some of the best value player props for tonight’s MLB action. Let’s get right to it and begin the weekend off with a bang!
St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres
Friday, August 01, 2025 – 9:40 PM EDT at Petco Park
The AI Model thinks Jake Cronenworth will record .529 hits tonight. While the Padres’ infielder has a prop of .5 hits, the under is currently at +125. There’s value with the under.
It’s Been All Luck!
The Padres made so many moves at the MLB Trade Deadline that Jake Cronenworth will likely bat 8th in tonight’s lineup against the Cardinals.
While Cronenworth has hit a .207 ISO and wOBA of .425 over the last 30 days, he’s kind of been lucky when you dig deeper.
After all, he’s hit 63.6% of grounders and 18.2% of fly balls against lefties over the last month. He’s also earned 13.6% of line drives and just 27.3% of hard contact in that time against lefties. In addition, he’s earned just a 4.5% barrel percentage.
Still, with those numbers, he’s hit a .429 BABIP. That won’t last if he continues to hit ground balls nearly 64% of the time against lefties.
He’ll battle Matthew Liberatore, who has held 97 lefties to a .103 ISO and wOBA of .289 with 51.5% of ground balls induced. Liberatore has been very good against lefties throughout the season.
Let’s fade Jake Cronenworth and take his under .5 hits tonight.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Athletics
Friday, August 01, 2025 – 10:05 PM EDT at Sutter Health Park
Our AI Model believes Lawrence Butler will add .289 runs in tonight’s contest against the Diamondbacks. However, his run prop is at .5, with the under at only -115. That’s a steal!
Lawrence Butler Has Struggled
The Athletics will still continue to put Lawrence Butler at the top of the lineup. However, the Athletics’ outfielder has only hit a .292 wOBA with 27.2% of strikeouts against righties over the last 30 days.
He’s also hit 49% of ground balls and 18.4% of fly balls during that time. That’s resulted in just a .200 BABIP against righties over the last month.
Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks have decided on Anthony DeSclafani to be their final starter after trading away Merrill Kelly. DeSclafani has limited his last 21 lefties to a .053 ISO and wOBA of .255 with 66.7% of ground balls.
He’ll likely earn many ground balls against lefty Lawrence Butler. Therefore, Butler will have a hard time reaching base safely throughout the game against DeSclafani and the Diamondbacks.
I’m siding with the AI Model and taking Butler to add below .5 runs tonight.
Texas Rangers vs. Seattle Mariners
Friday, August 01, 2025 – 10:10 PM ET at T-Mobile Park
Cal Raleigh Still Struggles Against Righties
Cal Raleigh leads the MLB with 42 home runs. However, over the last 30 days, he’s actually struggled against righties.
In fact, he’s hit a .276 wOBA over the last 30 days against righties and has struck out 24.2% of the time. He’s also earned a .108 BABIP against righties and has hit just 7.3% of line drives.
Meanwhile, he’ll battle Jack Leiter of the Rangers, who is a righty that has held other righties to a .044 ISO and wOBA of .285 over the last 30 days. This isn’t the most ideal spot for Raleigh.
Let’s take Cal Raleigh to add below .5 runs tonight.
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